mappy Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I got woken up as well, but no idea what time. It sounded pretty bad but there was only .20” in the gauge this morning, so it couldn’t have been too rough. my davis needs to be sent off for repair. it doesn't hold the solar charge at night anymore. was going to send it just before this all happened but now just going to wait it out. so my station is pretty much useless at night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 8, 2020 Author Share Posted April 8, 2020 12z Euro tracks the main low for Sun/Mon potential event up into the Detroit area. Has a little low in the vicinity of Bath/Alleghany County, VA at 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Memory post - DMV was under multiple tornado watches for almost 20 consecutive hours. What an event that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: 12z Euro tracks the main low for Sun/Mon potential event up into the Detroit area. Has a little low in the vicinity of Bath/Alleghany County, VA at 12z Monday. Gotta watch those. Sneaky secondary max that can surprise a few areas real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 8, 2020 Author Share Posted April 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Gotta watch those. Sneaky secondary max that can surprise a few areas real quick. Usual caveats apply - and that's only 24 hour time steps. Wonder where it goes from there. I'm still mostly assuming we won't get enough warm sector...but we'll see how things trend in the next few days. Makes a huge difference if it goes ENE from there or if it rides the Blue Ride area to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: Usual caveats apply - and that's only 24 hour time steps. Wonder where it goes from there. I'm still mostly assuming we won't get enough warm sector...but we'll see how things trend in the next few days. Strengthening or mature sub 1000 mb lows running CLE -> BUF don't go quietly into the night here. If this continues, especially with the little secondary low running close to us, we could certinaly get a sneaky event with a big storm or two embedded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 8, 2020 Author Share Posted April 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Strengthening or mature sub 1000 mb lows running CLE -> BUF don't go quietly into the night here. If this continues, especially with the little secondary low running close to us, we could certinaly get a sneaky event with a big storm or two embedded. CIPS has been pretty weak for our area...but it also goes off of the American guidance so I'm not surprised. I think Sunday is more or less off the table for us at the moment. Monday is definitely our window. I could see this being a relatively early day situation for us (before 1pm) - so we'll need to either hope it's one of those "don't need sunshine" days or hope for some continued slowing down of the system. That little low on the map above is going to be very jumpy the next few days. Suspect some runs it won't even show up on, others it might be too far south for us. Fickle hobby we have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: CIPS has been pretty weak for our area...but it also goes off of the American guidance so I'm not surprised. I think Sunday is more or less off the table for us at the moment. Monday is definitely our window. I could see this being a relatively early day situation for us (before 1pm) - so we'll need to either hope it's one of those "don't need sunshine" days or hope for some continued slowing down of the system. That little low on the map above is going to be very jumpy the next few days. Suspect some runs it won't even show up on, others it might be too far south for us. Fickle hobby we have. Yup. I've learned to always bet on a fail and be happy with anything you get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Hmmmm... LWX seems to think there will be a chance for some severe late tonight in the form of damaging winds out in the western part of the forum with wording in the zones and updated evening AFD: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A weak boundary stretches has pushed just south of the region this evening. Dry conditions are expected into the early overnight, with mostly clear skies for the first half of the night in the wake of the front. Ongoing convective complex will likely be moving into the area after midnight. It will probably be in a weakening state, although there still could be some thunder and the damaging wind threat with it is non-zero. For most of the metro area, it should not be the biggest convective threat with this system, but in western Virginia and eastern West Virginia, it may be. Lows will remain fairly mild, with 50s common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Probably not going to be severe by time it reaches us... but SPC just issued a Tornado Watch till 4am for a good amount of counties in West Virginia and pushes into the central portion of West Virginia https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0093.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmmm... LWX seems to think there will be a chance for some severe late tonight in the form of damaging winds out in the western part of the forum with wording in the zones and updated AFD Not a bad call by LWX. Good reflectivity persists in several CAMS as the storms make it western VA, and soundings do show some modest potential for momentum transport to the ground. Still think that that most of us (except for the western and southwestern areas) have a shot at strong midday gusts in a line along the front followed by strong post-frontal gusts too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 For overnight Mesoscale Discussion 0321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020 Areas affected...West Virginia into western Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090450Z - 090645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A line of severe storms may still be severe as it approaches the eastern parts of Tornado Watch 93. DISCUSSION...A strongly forced line of storms with history of damaging winds continues rapidly eastward at over 50 kt. VWPs ahead of the line indicate modest southwesterly winds just off the surface, which is helping to increase moisture and instability values to the east, and despite relatively cooler surface temperatures. Despite marginal instability, the high level of organization suggests some chance of continued severe wind threat as the line approaches eastern WV and possibly across the VA border. Trends will continue to be monitored, and another watch may need to be considered. ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/09/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 and later today from new Day 1 SPC OTLK Quote ...Southeast New York/Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward into the upper Ohio Valley this morning. An associated 100 to 120 kt mid-level jet will move through the base of the trough with the exit region of the jet overspreading the Mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, a cold front will advance quickly eastward across the central Appalachians this morning. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front should be in the mid to upper 50s F, allowing for weak instability to develop. As strong large-scale ascent moves into the region form the west, low-topped thunderstorms should initiate and move quickly eastward toward the coast. Due to very strong wind speeds in the low to mid-levels, this convection should be able to produce damaging wind gusts. Although the greatest threat should be from the vicinity of Washington D.C. to near New York City, marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in southern New England and southward into Virginia and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Clearing here currently with the early morning storms moving off the Southern NJ coastline. Wind threat appears impressive, even after the any squall line later this afternoon, and the expiration of the wind advisory , gusty winds will continue until later Saturday, combined with temps in the 30's over night. HM chimes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Looks like a box will be coming soon for DC and points east and northeast. Two lines intensifying to our west now, with SPC mesoanalysis showing 500+ sfc-based cape in the area where the watch is being considered. That's probably enough instability, given the strong wind fields and fast storm motion, to get some impressive gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Looks like a box will be coming soon for DC and points east and northeast. Two lines intensifying to our west now, with SPC mesoanalysis showing 500+ sfc-based cape in the area where the watch is being considered. That's probably enough instability, given the strong wind fields and fast storm motion, to get some impressive gusts. Yup. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0324.html Baltimore and points NE are primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 What's up with that Severe T-Storm Warning box? There's nothing in it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: What's up with that Severe T-Storm Warning box? There's nothing in it. I can't explain why but the wind is Kicking in that part of the line if you look at the velo's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: What's up with that Severe T-Storm Warning box? There's nothing in it. Core of damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: I can't explain why but the wind is Kicking in that part of the line if you look at the velo's Really strange. I get the most recent one issued from about 70 and north, but the one south......weird that there is a lot of wind in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 SPC issued Blue Box until 20:00 UTC. WCN going out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 Just now, osfan24 said: Really strange. I get the most recent one issued from about 70 and north, but the one south......weird that there is a lot of wind in that area. Interesting because that is a very common "starting point" for damaging wind cores into the metro area. I can recall a few that had a big bundle of great velocity returns on radar before dealing damage into the metro area. Believe there was one in July earlier in the 2010s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC issued Blue Box until 20:00 UTC. WCN going out shortly. https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=44300457 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 why do i have a watch and a warning? its sunny out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Per GOES16, decent uptick in lightning with the activity from Walkersville on north into Carroll County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Timing is a bit off for DC folks but looks promising. KGED is in the mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Couple of 52 kt pixels with the activity over Laurel and DC proper. Really isn't going to take much convection to bring any severe level winds down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Per GOES16, decent uptick in lightning with the activity from Walkersville on north into Carroll County. And as soon as it went over the ridge...pretty much dies out. A little bit of rain, and some quick gusts, but not much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, mappy said: why do i have a watch and a warning? its sunny out lol It’s been pouring here for the last 30 minutes. Gusty winds and thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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