Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2020 Author Share Posted March 28, 2020 Looking at the 18z long range HRRR and the latest 3km NAM - I'm pretty torn. They don't really have much activity in the area - but they do hint at the possibility for one or two good cells. Seems like our usual type of event where it could be an absolute nothing-event. But that SPC and LWX discussions definitely are conditionally very intriguing. A few days ago I had this pretty much written off. Will come down to our typical question of instability. Would be a lot of fun to track something given how downtrodden a lot of folks are right now with the COVID-19 outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 Just had a chance to sit down and look at some of the guidance. ARW, ARW2 and NMM pretty much show nothing for us tomorrow. HRDRPS has some nice looking activity in the 20z time frame...but not sure I'd want to put all my eggs in the HRDRPS. We'll probably be stuck with a game time call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 00z NAM still has some decent looking soundings at 21z tomorrow around the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 15 and 21z SREF runs both placed the bullseye (nothing too high) of tor ingredients right over the DC metro tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Um okay... that escalated quickly in the evening AFD .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Short-term models like the HRRR indicate isold supercell potential possible especially along and north of Interstates 68 and 70. Even if warm front fails to lift into PA, there appears to be sufficient elevated instability that supercells could still produce large to very large hail. Convective initation remains questionable especially in southern areas where there is lack of frontal convergence. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are still expected in the northern half of the fcst area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 The 0z 3km NAM appears (based on 2m temps) to get the wedge hung up a bit. In late March, I would be inclined to believe the wedge will be harder to erode than easier. The diving line is about the Potomac River on that run. Some high parameters in a pocket down near La Plata, Fredericksburg etc. That's a very believable scenario for now. If I was looking for severe, I'd rather be down in that area than in my area or certainly not @mappy 's area. Though we all know that playing with boundaries and fronts can be rewarding due to the shear. It's going to be a day of low coverage it seems - but if one cell can get rooted and has surface based instability to work with - that discussion is well within the realm of possibilities. Certainly not a widespread svr day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 5 hours ago, yoda said: @high risk Pretty decent sounding from the 18z NAM for 21z tomorrow at KIAD, no? These soundings aren't too bad - wind profiles in the lowest 1 km are a bit weak but still fairly good. Kmlwx has a good analysis - the problem is that not much guidance shows robust convective development in this area. The one way we could sneak into a better event is if the NAM nest is correct about the slow progression of the warm front. If a cell interacted with that boundary, it could get interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, high risk said: These soundings aren't too bad - wind profiles in the lowest 1 km are a bit weak but still fairly good. Kmlwx has a good analysis - the problem is that not much guidance shows robust convective development in this area. The one way we could sneak into a better event is if the NAM nest is correct about the slow progression of the warm front. If a cell interacted with that boundary, it could get interesting. That is high praise coming from a tagged met! Thank you! I like to think I've come from one of the biggest weenies here in 2006 (from the Eastern days) to where I am now thanks for folks like you. Tomorrow could be really nice for an isolated swath of real estate that gets under a cell. Just not sure there will be more than one or two of them total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Looks like a there is good amount of shear but pretty weak instability to establish/sustain updrafts. If the warm front clears early enough, and some places can get a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s, might be enough to kick off a few decent cells ahead of the cold front. This is all above my pay grade though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 12z 3km NAM is wholly unimpressive, but the 12z HRRR gets a modest line of convection going for N central MD later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 The front isn't here for sure. Sitting around 50 in Columbia and socked in with clouds and fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: The front isn't here for sure. Sitting around 50 in Columbia and socked in with clouds and fog It’s moving toward us quickly. Probably will clear dramatically before 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s moving toward us quickly. Probably will clear dramatically before 2pm. Finally back at a computer - have been driving back from PA, to the apartment in Columbia and now at my parent's place down in Colesville. Super foggy for this far into the day. About to pull up surface obs to take a look where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 Wundermap shows the front pretty clearly. The wedge is very visible. There's a station reading 84 out near Petersburg (can't be right...) but low to mid 70s in that area, 60s and 70s down south of Fredericksburg. Looks like the wedge is running roughly from areas like Hancock, MD south to Winchester and then to Culpeper, over to the Potomac River etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 https://i.imgur.com/Xe0VYkb.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 CAD (Cold Air Damming) screws NE MD as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 44 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Finally back at a computer - have been driving back from PA, to the apartment in Columbia and now at my parent's place down in Colesville. Super foggy for this far into the day. About to pull up surface obs to take a look where it is. Eh maybe not. High clouds are about to clear but wedge is eroding slower. Can see that on satellite last 30mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Eh maybe not. High clouds are about to clear but wedge is eroding slower. Can see that on satellite last 30mins Think we'd need a stronger S wind to scour out the wedge. Lots of full sunshine just outside the wedge, though. I could see somebody in western Maryland or the WV panhandle getting a decent cell this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 Temps are really heading upward. IF (big if) anything pops, it could get pretty good looking. Watching and waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Southern part of the subforum, but hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Southern part of the subforum, but hmmm... Please, NAM... Just once... Be correct just one time... I won’t bother you again until tomorrow, just please... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Looks like CI trying hard NE of Farmville... but got smushed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 34 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like CI trying hard NE of Farmville... but got smushed lol Trying again north of Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 Don't believe anything is going to be in the cards for MBY this evening. On to the next event up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Don't believe anything is going to be in the cards for MBY this evening. On to the next event up here! Which will likely be quite a while unfortunately... I miss thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 https://twitter.com/forecaster25/status/1244398593647218688?s=21 Cool... no more pollen for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 5, 2020 Author Share Posted April 5, 2020 SPC indicates some potential for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: SPC indicates some potential for Wednesday. A pre-climo NW flow regime w/ potentially steep mid-level lapse rates... We watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 13 hours ago, George BM said: A pre-climo NW flow regime w/ potentially steep mid-level lapse rates... We watch. definitely. and SPC today mentions the mid-Atlantic for both Wednesday and Thursday. A quick check of the morning guidance suggests that the timing is off here for good potential on both days, but there is certainly time to adjust the setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Potential is definitely starting to show some focus. SPC highlighting Marginal next two days. HRRR going a bit crazy (notoriously).. We will see. Could be an interesting few days nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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