yoda Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 There's one STW by LWX... headed toward DC in an hour or so... Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 945 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 VAC047-113-137-270315- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200227T0315Z/ Madison VA-Orange VA-Culpeper VA- 945 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EST FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...CENTRAL ORANGE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CULPEPER COUNTIES... At 945 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Orange, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Culpeper, Orange, Gordonsville, Raccoon Ford, Rhoadesville, Rapidan, Everona, Verdiersville, Madison Run, Montpelier Station, Burr Hill, Nasons, Winston, Madison Mills, Montford, Mitchells, Old Somerset, Unionville, Somerset and Locust Dale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 930pm AFD from LWX NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Squall line continues to gell as the surface boundary plows eastward from WV. Forcing aloft continues to increase, so expect line to continue to strengthen through midnight before low-level forcing finally starts to wane. Main threat will be damaging winds, with a secondary threat of hail, though most hail should be sub-severe. An isolated tornado still can`t be ruled out given the shear. Heavy rain will also occur, but should generally be brief enough to prevent significant flooding. Poor drainage areas may experience difficulties, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 #2 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1010 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Orange County in central Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... Southwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... North central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 1100 PM EST. * At 1010 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast of Culpeper, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Bealeton, Nokesville, Remington, Catlett, Calverton, Midland, Stevensburg, Roseville, Garrisonville, Locust Grove, Flat Run, Heflin, Dunavant, Lake Of The Woods, Morrisville, Ruby, Somerville, Goldvein, Raccoon Ford and Lois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Perhaps the smallest amount of sfc-based instability for that cell to work with down by Culpeper, where sfc temps are 5-6 degrees warmer than around the DC Beltway and points north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 O storm reports. Lack of sfc-based instability, ftw! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 31 minutes ago, high risk said: O storm reports. Lack of sfc-based instability, ftw! Payback for a TOR "outbreak" a few weeks ago lol. I'm getting bored without anything substantial to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 3 hours ago, high risk said: O storm reports. Lack of sfc-based instability, ftw! I see 4 LSR's from LWX from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 3 hours ago, high risk said: O storm reports. Lack of sfc-based instability, ftw! SPC has 4 storm reports from LWX -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20200226 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 36 minutes ago, yoda said: SPC has 4 storm reports from LWX -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20200226 well, crap. Those got added in pretty late, so I guess that LWX had to look pretty hard to find them but in seriousness, the Culpepper reports don't totally surprise me, but the Fairfax reports do. I didn't see anyone in this forum report strong winds inside of the Beltway..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 If the surface low of that mid next week system can track just off to our northwest lots of models have some impressive wind fields. CAPE would be the main question though mainly because of warmer low/mid-level temperatures... and also climo in general (it's still on the early side)... Though the February 7th system probably has a few choice words for me about that "climo" statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 1 hour ago, high risk said: well, crap. Those got added in pretty late, so I guess that LWX had to look pretty hard to find them but in seriousness, the Culpepper reports don't totally surprise me, but the Fairfax reports do. I didn't see anyone in this forum report strong winds inside of the Beltway..... That's the problem with storm reports. One was a branch down and another was a tree down. But that doesn't really tell you if the winds were super-strong or whether the trees are in terrible shape. I gusted higher this morning at my house than last night and I was in a pretty good storm spot last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 I thought it was mid july looking at the activity of this thread, until I looked at the trees outside and the temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 A low risk of some thunder and perhaps some gusty winds tomorrow depending on the amount of sunshine we can get. Low-level lapse rates look steep... with mid-level lapse rates looking somewhat steep as well. And FWIW... SPC doesn't even have us in a 10% thunder risk for tomorrow so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 hour ago, George BM said: A low risk of some thunder and perhaps some gusty winds tomorrow depending on the amount of sunshine we can get. Low-level lapse rates look steep... with mid-level lapse rates looking somewhat steep as well. And FWIW... SPC doesn't even have us in a 10% thunder risk for tomorrow so... This post is spot-on. I can see why they didn't have any thunder marked around here on the prelim day 1, but the 12z guidance has clearly shifted towards more favorable parameters AND explicit convective signatures in the simulated reflectivity. It warrants a general thunder outlook in the new day 2 for sure, and it's honestly not that far off from a MRGL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2020 Author Share Posted March 2, 2020 The parameters in some regards look better than the other day even. Simulated reflectivity on the longgggg range HRRR from the 12z run looks really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 hours ago, high risk said: This post is spot-on. I can see why they didn't have any thunder marked around here on the prelim day 1, but the 12z guidance has clearly shifted towards more favorable parameters AND explicit convective signatures in the simulated reflectivity. It warrants a general thunder outlook in the new day 2 for sure, and it's honestly not that far off from a MRGL. General thunder added and a disco issued in the 1730 SPC OTLK ...Middle Atlantic Region... Moisture return will be limited in this region which along with potential for widespread clouds should contribute to only weak instability. However, a couple of CAMs including the RAP indicate potential for more significant destabilization. A northern stream shortwave trough will approach this region during the afternoon and evening and given strength of vertical shear profiles, some threat for severe storms could materialize. Given low confidence in more substantial destabilization, will not introduce severe probabilities at this time, but have expanded the general thunder area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 18z HRRR has a sfc-based bow echo moving across the areas north of the DC Beltway early Tuesday evening. It's an outlier solution in terms of having much warmer sfc temps than other guidance, but IF it were correct, it would be a SLGT risk day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2020 Author Share Posted March 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, high risk said: 18z HRRR has a sfc-based bow echo moving across the areas north of the DC Beltway early Tuesday evening. It's an outlier solution in terms of having much warmer sfc temps than other guidance, but IF it were correct, it would be a SLGT risk day. That is a very impressive sim radar. NAM doesn't look anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That is a very impressive sim radar. NAM doesn't look anything like it. right. because the HRRR is 5-8 degrees warmer..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 24 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That is a very impressive sim radar. NAM doesn't look anything like it. The 3K has little bit of a line at 30 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 00z HRRR is turrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 End if its run, but 02z HRRR gets us into the mid 60s at 20z tomorrow with storms developing off to the west in WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 00z NAM 3km sim radar looks nice until it falls apart as it approaches i95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 MRGL risk for this afternoon and evening... 2% TOR/5% WIND ...Parts of the central Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic region... As a northern-stream upper trough moves quickly eastward across the Ohio Valley region through the day, and approaches the central Appalachians during the afternoon, modest/low-topped instability should support convective development across parts of far eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania/West Virginia. Given strong/deep-layer westerly flow, convection will be fast-moving -- posing low-end risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. The convection will move quickly across Maryland/northern Virginia/eastern Pennsylvania through early evening, likely diminishing gradually as it crosses New Jersey and Delaware before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 pretty crazy pictures coming out of the Nashville area this morning. 7 confirmed deaths so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 28 minutes ago, mappy said: pretty crazy pictures coming out of the Nashville area this morning. 7 confirmed deaths so far. Yea woke to hear about the tornado and have seen the damage and video out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 I lived in East Nashville for the 1998 tornado. Sometime if you all want I can recount living through that one. My office bldg. downtown was massively damaged and my home also had significant damage. But check out this overlay in this tweet of the Nashville tornados from 1933, 1998 and the one last night. That's...absolutely uncanny: https://twitter.com/WCM_Krissy/status/1234822047571881984 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 1300 SPC OTLK still 2% TOR/5% WIND... but disco has picked up a bit compared to the 0600 one ..Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A northern stream shortwave trough will translate from the MS Valley to the OH Valley today, and reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England tonight. An associated surface cyclone will deepen from the lower Great Lakes into New England, while a trailing cold front moves eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. In the wake of weakening morning convection and a remnant MCV near southern WV, a few cloud breaks and some low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front from WV into parts of PA/VA this afternoon/evening. Broken bands of storms will be possible this afternoon along the front, and the convection will spread east-northeastward toward NJ by late evening. Assuming sufficient near-surface destabilization, wind profiles will favor organized bowing segments and supercells with some threat for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 47 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I lived in East Nashville for the 1998 tornado. Sometime if you all want I can recount living through that one. My office bldg. downtown was massively damaged and my home also had significant damage. But check out this overlay in this tweet of the Nashville tornados from 1933, 1998 and the one last night. That's...absolutely uncanny: https://twitter.com/WCM_Krissy/status/1234822047571881984 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 pretty stong agreement among the CAMs this morning that the threat later today is all north of the DC Beltway, and depending on your model of choice, it could well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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