snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Anybody have a free UKIE link? Meteocentre.com isn't updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Anybody have a free UKIE link? Meteocentre.com isn't updating. https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/7cde42424525268bfe98328ed2d8f162/acc-total-precipitation/20200127-0000z.html This link from weather.us shows the total QPF from today’s 12z UKMET (today to Sunday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Toronto4 said: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/7cde42424525268bfe98328ed2d8f162/acc-total-precipitation/20200127-0000z.html This link from weather.us shows the total QPF from today’s 12z UKMET (today to Sunday). Nice, thanks T4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 18z NAM pushes the first wave snow shield a bit north & looks warmer thru Thursday AM at the lower levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Still looks like a solid hit for chicagoland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Nice deformation band stall over IL on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 If the NAM is right, Friday could be a fun day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 45 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: If the NAM is right, Friday could be a fun day Gets N IL in a pivot point and just sits and spins. Low is in the same general area from hour 66 to 84. 6-8" with the defo band dumping snow at the end of the run. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Please please please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 18z GFS still a dumpster fire. Maybe if someone tries turning the super-computer off and back on again.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 18z GFS still a dumpster fire. Maybe if someone tries turning the super-computer off and back on again.. Exact details of the setup are certainly still subject to change, especially farther out in time, but I have a hard time believing all the other models and ensembles are wrong on 925 mb temps. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Think I'll go 2-4" for this area for a first guess. More might actually fall but doubt it will physically add up to much more than that. Could be a situation where MLI reports a grand total of like 5.5", but to the public it will seem more like 3", etc. Kind of a lame system in that regard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I beginning to feel like the kid that never gets picked on either team in a scrimmage game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Ride the gfs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I guess the only thing I can expect for sure out of this is every different type of precipitation. Rain, Sleet, Snow, Freezing Rain, Ice Pellets..... Only question is how much falls this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Ride the gfs zzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Feels like the NWS office here is still sticking with the GFS (or at the very least not the NAM), point & click calls for rain & snow becoming all rain tomorrow after an all-snow onset tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Nice, thanks T4. 18z GFS was an improvement over the 12z run and all of the 18z GEFS ensemble members show snowfall for the Golden Horseshoe. Some of them show significant snowfall, similar to the 12z UKMET (saw snowfall map posted in the Upstate NY subforum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 10:1 ratio map caveat as per usual but 18z GFS ensemble mean is a nice thump* along I-80 * as much of a 'thump' as >48 hours of intermittent light-to-moderate snows can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Exact details of the setup are certainly still subject to change, especially farther out in time, but I have a hard time believing all the other models and ensembles are wrong on 925 mb temps. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk There really isn't a compelling reason to believe the GFS thermal profiles. Always have to be skeptical of outliers... maybe a little less so if it's the ECMWF as the outlier but that is not the case this time. What kind of track record does this upgraded GFS have to put a lot of faith in it? Like you said, it doesn't mean the snowier models are going to nail amounts either because we are still dealing with questionable 2m temps. This discrepancy with the temps aloft has been interesting to watch. I have never been more curious to look at actual observed 925 mb temps in the coming days lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 If anyone is looking closely at point and click or hourly weather graphs for this event we do have a fair amount of rain and snow mention during the day on Friday because of surface temps being as marginal as they are. Would think that at periods of lower precip rates that we could mix or flip to rain, or falling snow would not accumulate and essentially function as white rain. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: If anyone is looking closely at point and click or hourly weather graphs for this event we do have a fair amount of rain and snow mention during the day on Friday because of surface temps being as marginal as they are. Would think that at periods of lower precip rates that we could mix or flip to rain, or falling snow would not accumulate and essentially function as white rain. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Definitely very marginal temps for any accumulation. However with a relatively strong closed low and the fact it will be strengthening as it passes over us, makes me think dynamics could compensate for lack of colder air. I remember this clipper a few years ago came through with very marginal temps but it was very compact and wound up. We ended up dynamically cooling to around 32-31 and efficiently accumulated snow with moderate to sometimes heavy rates. I know this isn't a clipper but made me think of how wrapped up this system is aloft 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Plumes are lol, lame ass 5 degree slope. 1.9 looking $$$ tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 6 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Not happening. Many places across the GTA saw ~20" with that storm. The Dec 92 storm was a full blown Nor'easter and was much stronger. As it stands right now, 2-4" seems reasonable. I remember that storm - was 12 years old. Originally they'd been calling for 4-6" and we ended up with about 17" at my place. Just an amazing storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 52 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: If anyone is looking closely at point and click or hourly weather graphs for this event we do have a fair amount of rain and snow mention during the day on Friday because of surface temps being as marginal as they are. Would think that at periods of lower precip rates that we could mix or flip to rain, or falling snow would not accumulate and essentially function as white rain. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Was just thinking about how screwed the city would be in a marginal setup like this if it were earlier in the season. Flow is pretty much offshore until Friday but then when it does turn onshore on Friday, it is not that strong and shoreline temp is now down to 33 and the crib is all the way down to 29. Everybody is going to struggle to accumulate at times in this setup with how marginal it is but shouldn't end up with a big inland to lakeside gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Kaner88 said: 10:1 ratio map caveat as per usual but 18z GFS ensemble mean is a nice thump* along I-80 * as much of a 'thump' as >48 hours of intermittent light-to-moderate snows can be Epic middle finger for Lk Huron. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 This stands to be the first snow on snow event for Chicagoland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Toronto4 said: 18z GFS was an improvement over the 12z run and all of the 18z GEFS ensemble members show snowfall for the Golden Horseshoe. Some of them show significant snowfall, similar to the 12z UKMET (saw snowfall map posted in the Upstate NY subforum). Well, if it does transpire, can't argue with back-to-back snowstorms on Saturdays. At least no commuting problems for us working stiffs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, snowstormcanuck said: Well, if it does transpire, can't argue with back-to-back snowstorms on Saturdays. At least no commuting problems for us working stiffs. Counterpoint b2b friday evening hell commutes for us further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: This stands to be the first snow on snow event for Chicagoland Maybe for downtown, but not the burbs. Edit: Totally didn't read what you wrote correctly. Yea, you're right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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