Kaner88 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Come for the storm, stay for ILSNOW refusing to let alek's dud call stand 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 GFS ensembles (albeit from 12z) anticipating an average precipitation rate of 0.005"/hour from 03z 1/22 to 12z 1/25, impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 First and final call: 36 hours of a light rain/snow mix in South Bend...if we're lucky. Exciting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Some nice hits in there. Just have to factor in a melting/compaction element which means that depths probably won't be as high as what falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Mentioned earlier about the limited diurnal temp swings. The 18z GFS is downright preposterous in that regard. Verbatim on the 2m temp plots, it has ORD between 30-35 degrees for 162 consecutive hours during/after the storm. That seems almost impossible to keep temps in that tight of a range for that long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Some nice hits in there. Just have to factor in a melting/compaction element which means that depths probably won't be as high as what falls.I find it interesting that the GEFS has consistently been hitting this harder than the operational GFS. Perhaps different physics packages helps explain, but also, in an inherently complex and odd setup like this, the higher vertical resolution of the op vs the ensembles might be of detriment. The lower vertical resolution of the ensemble can help smooth out features as opposed to what at times can be garbage in garbage out with the operational models. We haven't really seen this behavior with the ECMWF suite for this potential event but it can be an issue at times. My inclination now would be to lean toward the GEFS and ECMWF suite since those have been more consistent. Outer ranges of NAM have pointed more toward the latter. As things stand right now, this doesn't look like an exciting event (aside from a interesting analog mentioned in previous posts), but with such a long duration, could add up to respectable totals on colder surfaces if things break right. In a mild hemispheric pattern, I'd take that as a win. Since I like to think of local events that may have some similarities, off the top of my head came up with January 14-15, 2018. That was a long duration 3-6" snow due to a slow moving ULL, though it was much colder aloft. Parts of DeKalb, Kane, and DuPage had a jackpot zone of 6-7". https://www.weather.gov/lot/2018Jan15_snowfallSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 38 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Mentioned earlier about the limited diurnal temp swings. The 18z GFS is downright preposterous in that regard. Verbatim on the 2m temp plots, it has ORD between 30-35 degrees for 162 consecutive hours during/after the storm. That seems almost impossible to keep temps in that tight of a range for that long. Feel like that happens in late summer when we stay 65-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Quintessential thread the needle event. Want to be right over/100 miles NW of H5 low track, wherever that ends up being. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Quintessential thread the needle event. Want to be right over/100 miles NW of H5 low track, wherever that ends up being. My first call is for 1-2" in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 44 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I find it interesting that the GEFS has consistently been hitting this harder than the operational GFS. Perhaps different physics packages helps explain, but also, in an inherently complex and odd setup like this, the higher vertical resolution of the op vs the ensembles might be of detriment. The lower vertical resolution of the ensemble can help smooth out features as opposed to what at times can be garbage in garbage out with the operational models. We haven't really seen this behavior with the ECMWF suite for this potential event but it can be an issue at times. My inclination now would be to lean toward the GEFS and ECMWF suite since those have been more consistent. Outer ranges of NAM have pointed more toward the latter. As things stand right now, this doesn't look like an exciting event (aside from a interesting analog mentioned in previous posts), but with such a long duration, could add up to respectable totals on colder surfaces if things break right. In a mild hemispheric pattern, I'd take that as a win. Since I like to think of local events that may have some similarities, off the top of my head came up with January 14-15, 2018. That was a long duration 3-6" snow due to a slow moving ULL, though it was much colder aloft. Parts of DeKalb, Kane, and DuPage had a jackpot zone of 6-7". https://www.weather.gov/lot/2018Jan15_snowfall Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I remember that storm and almost was dead center of the bullseye in Kane County. I was working from home that day and the snow just kept coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 37 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Quintessential thread the needle event. Want to be right over/100 miles NW of H5 low track, wherever that ends up being. Reading the NE subforum, this upcoming event has similarities to the December 10-11, 1992 storm. That storm gave Toronto around 12” of heavy wet snow (more fell points east). Temperatures throughout the storm hovered around 32-33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Extrapolate the NAM and it’d likely be a nice long duration hit for most of N IL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Extrapolate the NAM and it’d likely be a nice long duration hit for most of N IL Yea I'm loving the nam. Keeps the profiles colder. Would like to see support from other models though. GFS and Euro are warmer with more mixed precipitation versus snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Extrapolate the NAM and it’d likely be a nice long duration hit for most of N IL Alek rainer tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Alek rainer tho The guy can’t get a call wrong if he tried 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: The guy can’t get a call wrong if he tried The COD precip type map has snow in Chicago. Kinda odd. Forecast soundings have a layer just off the surface around 0C so maybe that is screwing with the precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 The Nam is garbage at this range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 The gfs not run Crawl out of bed to relieve myself and thought why wouldn't I check the forum real quick also. Hopefully the Euro brings out a little chatter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 00z Canadian & 00z Euro, respectively. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Pretty similar. Semi on board with nam with colder and snowier. Gfs has a lot more rain and snow slop. To me the pattern would support a more gfs like solution but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 GEFS starting to trend higher locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 9 hours ago, Toronto4 said: Reading the NE subforum, this upcoming event has similarities to the December 10-11, 1992 storm. That storm gave Toronto around 12” of heavy wet snow (more fell points east). Temperatures throughout the storm hovered around 32-33F. 0.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 looking exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: looking exciting Ah yes the 6z NAM at 81 hours, the epitome of accuracy. You’re losing your trolling touch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: 0.1% It would take a miracle for that scenario to happen. So many moving parts and everything would have to line up perfectly. Best case scenario would a modest event of 2-4” of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Toronto4 said: It would take a miracle for that scenario to happen. So many moving parts and everything would have to line up perfectly. Best case scenario would a modest event of 2-4” of wet snow. Well, best case scenario might be that December 1992 event, but it's tremendously unlikely. 2-4" of plaster more likely than that, but still improbable. EURO is almost a whiff to the south even though it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 43 minutes ago, mimillman said: Ah yes the 6z NAM at 81 hours, the epitome of accuracy. You’re losing your trolling touch i work with what i'm given Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Nashville native here. Considering a chase to Springfield Friday. For some of you, I get why this is laughable...but where we are, there’s a pretty good chance we get shut out snow-wise this winter. I’m a winter fanatic so I don’t mind the driving if it leads to something. 2-4” for where I’m from is a big deal. Would help to get local input/insight. Who knows...this threat may evaporate in 24-36 making this post a moot point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 47 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: i work with what i'm given 12z NAM response to ALEK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Lock in the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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