Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Decent signal for some uptick in precip around here late morning/early afternoon, right around the time that temps become marginal. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: You might have to back track when you see how much snow the best in the biz is forecasting for you. So much for the pros being in your camp tth, u know I'm golden New graphic has 1.5 part one, 1 part two, so my d5 call looks off by a whopping 6 tenths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 DAB of accumulation with light snow. This storm has exceeded my wildest expectations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 31 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: tth, u know I'm golden New graphic has 1.5 part one, 1 part two, so my d5 call looks off by a whopping 6 tenths 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Looks like a whole nothing here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 After six hours of precip, I'm at 0.9" of snow. Of course, it's snowing and accumulating better now than earlier. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'd be shocked if you got to 38. No offense to RC and the other NWS mets, but never been a big fan of the point and click. I will glance sometimes but I tend to go for the zone forecasts. The point and clicks can throw out some real gems sometimes in multi precip type situations especially when it'll break things down into 2 or 3 hour blocks. Even better, my current p&c is twice broken down into 1 hour blocks. That's some dandy forecasting, right there! Thursday Night Rain and snow before 3am, then rain between 3am and 4am, then rain and snow after 4am. Low around 32. Friday Night A chance of rain and snow before 10pm, then a chance of rain between 10pm and 11pm, then a chance of snow after 11pm. Anyway, I'll once again be watching this one put accumulations down to my northwest, with moods flakes for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Even better, my current p&c is twice broken down into 1 hour blocks. That's some dandy forecasting, right there! Thursday Night Rain and snow before 3am, then rain between 3am and 4am, then rain and snow after 4am. Low around 32. Friday Night A chance of rain and snow before 10pm, then a chance of rain between 10pm and 11pm, then a chance of snow after 11pm. Anyway, I'll once again be watching this one put accumulations down to my northwest, with moods flakes for us. Yeah that is kind of what I'm talking about. But they can really sound goofy when you add in the possibility of sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: After six hours of precip, I'm at 0.9" of snow. Of course, it's snowing and accumulating better now than earlier. your a known slant sticker.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah that is kind of what I'm talking about. But they can really sound goofy when you add in the possibility of sleet/freezing rain. it's almost like it's a generated product that heavily weighs a bad model we all paid for... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 This storm is starting to look like a hot mess...a dog's breakfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Yeah radar look terrible but that was expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 First flakes (flurries) have arrived here. The road to 1ft begins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: First flakes (flurries) have arrived here. The road to 1ft begins. Even if it takes all year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 For the benefit of the board, a visual of our grand total snowfall forecast tonight-Sat AM snowfall from the LOT dayshift (MTF through 12z Thursday portion and myself the rest of the event). This ended up falling out pretty close to the internal graphics WPC shares with the WFOs for collaboration purposes and I think looks pretty reasonable based on all the available data. We've been breaking the forecast into two separate "events" in graphics and only going with the first part on the probablistic snowfall page. That's because we feel that putting out the grand total snowfall forecast in a public facing graphic on the web and especially social media would make the event seem more impactful than it will likely end up being. Plus, as has been discussed, the net snowfall will end up some percentage lower than this grand total when accounting for melting and compaction. Will post additional thoughts later. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I'm up to 1.4" now, so that's an addition 0.5" over the last 1.5 hours, a decent 0.33"/hr rate. That will add up over several hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 925 mb temp watch:00z RAOB at OAX (Omaha, NE)Observed: -0.9CGFS: +1CECMWF: 0CSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 0z hrrr torchy like gfs. Has rain wrapping around low all night Fri. I just don't buy that. There should be some CAA wrapping on backside of low. This first wave is definitely looking pretty paltry on radar. Wondering if precip by Gulf is disrupting moisture feed. Also looked like that first disturbance lifted more west than anticipated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 The plumez have increased again. Plumezzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 54 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: For the benefit of the board, a visual of our grand total snowfall forecast tonight-Sat AM snowfall from the LOT dayshift (MTF through 12z Thursday portion and myself the rest of the event). This ended up falling out pretty close to the internal graphics WPC shares with the WFOs for collaboration purposes and I think looks pretty reasonable based on all the available data. We've been breaking the forecast into two separate "events" in graphics and only going with the first part on the probablistic snowfall page. That's because we feel that putting out the grand total snowfall forecast in a public facing graphic on the web and especially social media would make the event seem more impactful than it will likely end up being. Plus, as has been discussed, the net snowfall will end up some percentage lower than this grand total when accounting for melting and compaction. Will post additional thoughts later. Solid map given current data. I'd say if somebody could overachieve, an area to watch would be the south burbs into part of northwest IN. It would help if tomorrow night thumps pretty good there prior to rain. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z hrrr torchy like gfs. Has rain wrapping around low all night Fri. I just don't buy that. There should be some CAA wrapping on backside of low. This first wave is definitely looking pretty paltry on radar. Wondering if precip by Gulf is disrupting moisture feed. Also looked like that first disturbance lifted more west than anticipated HRRR may be having some sfc temp issues as its known to do, especially in its longer range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 So far the snow is so light it's not accumulating, but just nw there's a more enhanced band that may be adding up a bit for those peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: HRRR may be having some sfc temp issues as its known to do, especially in it's longer range. Just nam is showing this current wave being more robust than it currently is so has me wondering if it is right on a more robust 2nd wave than other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: This storm is starting to look like a hot mess...a dog's breakfast. Starting? We're in the "game" as it were, but you got to like the north shore of Lk Ontario just east of the city. Parts of the higher elevations in Northumberland and Hastings counties look like they could go 12-18" inches of cement over the course of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Starting? We're in the "game" as it were, but you got to like the north shore of Lk Ontario just east of the city. Parts of the higher elevations in Northumberland and Hastings counties look like they could go 12-18" inches of cement over the course of 36 hours. The NAM 3km is interesting. It starts off as rain but quickly transitions over to wet snow near the end of the run. Temps at 850mb begin cooling down pretty quick. Reminds me of the late Feb '13 storm where we got 8" of cement lol. Edit: Kuchera maps have 1-2" by 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 32 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Starting? We're in the "game" as it were, but you got to like the north shore of Lk Ontario just east of the city. Parts of the higher elevations in Northumberland and Hastings counties look like they could go 12-18" inches of cement over the course of 36 hours. Point taken. I'm hoping we can at least manage 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 The GFS is still at it with the 925 mb temp thing. Here are the last few days of runs valid at 00z Friday. Notice the last few runs in severe catchup mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: The GFS is still at it with the 925 mb temp thing. Here are the last few days of runs valid at 00z Friday. Notice the last few runs in severe catchup mode. Utter trash model. Literally shows rain here from tomorrow afternoon through the rest of the event. Makes no sense. I do believe there will be rain at times but there will definitely be snow at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 lol 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Some beefier returns have moved in over the past hour and has resulted in a good dusting. No problem sticking on paved surfaces with the temp at 30. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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