Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z NAM Rainer thru 60 hrs 10:1 may be best case scenario. Too many hours of marginal temps to think that will be the ratio over the duration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Anyway, MKX is saying another 3-5" for here. Not a whole lot,but hey that should put our snowpack up to 10" or so. That should be enough to open snowmobile trails for a while and hey 10" is a decent snowpack in itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 10:1 may be best case scenario. Too many hours of marginal temps to think that will be the ratio over the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 10:1 may be best case scenario. Too many hours of marginal temps to think that will be the ratio over the duration. LOT has my p&c at 38 fri and sat, gonna really stack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The snow is really struggling to get going over here. For a couple hours it was mostly very light freezing rain and sleet. Now it's just brief spurts of flurries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Probably won't be ironed out until Friday, unless the models really start to shift in one direction. Still seems like a good bet for at least a little bit of slushy accum on Saturday. Yeah I agree. It's not the best set-up for anything big or widespread. I wouldn't discount a slushy ~2" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 51 minutes ago, Stebo said: When even Josh says you are unreasonable in reference to cold and snow, might be time to reevaluate things. Look, I know I'm not in the majority on this board...I get that. And I do agree with Josh that today is a nice wintry day...near 30 with about 2" of snow on the ground. But that's the bare minimum to qualify for a wintry day...just barely hanging on. If you use the criteria of a high temp <= 30F and 2+" of snow cover to define a "wintry day", we've only had about 5 of them since November 15th. So, 5 days out of 70. Not good. Believe me, it's exhausting to have to hope for every day to be below normal...and to know that if it gets close to freezing, you have to desperately wish for the sun not to come out, because otherwise the drip drip drip will start. I was up in northern WI snowmobiling with my son and brother this past weekend, and it was glorious. About 20 degrees during most of the day with pixie dust falling, all surfaces covered in snow, very short daylight...and about 10-15" of snow on the ground. Then it cleared out after sunset and rapidly dropped to 5 degrees, even with a fairly mild large-scale air mass in place. And, the locals all said that 2019-20 has been an incredibly mild winter so far. Even in the most boring winters up there, you can wake up every day between 12/15 and 2/28, and there will be snow on the ground and it will be wintry. No worries at all about melting; it's just a matter of how much below freezing it will be, and whether there is a ton of snow or a decent amount of snow. It's a sacred part of the calendar. The Cubs didn't win a World Series for 107 years, but it didn't stop people from hoping for it each year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 24 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z NAM Rainer thru 60 hrs Verbatim it looks good on that map...but unfortunately the trend has been to shift the frozen precip a bit further NW with each successive model run. 30-50 more miles and Chicago misses out. Not saying that's going to happen, but the trends aren't the best. And, people need to remember that Alek's microclimate is like St. Louis...and I would be forecasting rain more often than not if I lived there too. UHI is bad enough here in Lake County. Take a look at a map of the growing season in Illinois; you'll see a little bubble in urban Chicago of a very long growing season, even longer than southern IL. It's unfortunate...but apparently the general public sees it as a good thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 20 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z NAM Rainer thru 60 hrs Guess I should get ready for my 1ft of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, cyclone77 said: Guess I should get ready for my 1ft of snow. That is going to be a lot of rain and flooding in your area . The 10:1 ratio is going to prolly end up to high so you will prolly only end with 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: LOT has my p&c at 38 fri and sat, gonna really stack I'd be shocked if you got to 38. No offense to RC and the other NWS mets, but never been a big fan of the point and click. I will glance sometimes but I tend to go for the zone forecasts. The point and clicks can throw out some real gems sometimes in multi precip type situations especially when it'll break things down into 2 or 3 hour blocks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Yeah I agree. It's not the best set-up for anything big or widespread. I wouldn't discount a slushy ~2" for now. What happened to 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Real snow has finally commenced over here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What are your thoughts on this one? I do think it will likely change to rain in the city and some distance north/west of there. For how long is the question. Further west you are the better probably unless you’re up on Mt Geos for enhancement. NAM and Nest came back in a little colder not as far NW initially and had solid amounts before the flip to rain. Think the flip will probably happen across metro for a time but after that up once the air and where brunt off Friday night accums happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd be shocked if you got to 38. No offense to RC and the other NWS mets, but never been a big fan of the point and click. I will glance sometimes but I tend to go for the zone forecasts. The point and clicks can throw out some real gems sometimes in multi precip type situations especially when it'll break things down into 2 or 3 hour blocks. 38 probably high, probably more like 34-35, either way with light rates and p-type flip, my 1.9 call is good despite all my haterz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: Anyway, MKX is saying another 3-5" for here. Not a whole lot,but hey that should put our snowpack up to 10" or so. That should be enough to open snowmobile trails for a while and hey 10" is a decent snowpack in itself. Not sure how much we can add to the snowpack. things might compact as quickly as they accumulate and melting will be occurring during the daytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 p&c lol. he has no material for this one anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Don’t worry Beavis we switched over to predominantly snow/frozen cocktail pretty quickly. Not really heavy enough to accumulate but then again we aren’t forecast to get much this far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Did the NAM break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, madwx said: Not sure how much we can add to the snowpack. things might compact as quickly as they accumulate and melting will be occurring during the daytime Right, forgot about compaction and melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: I mean unacceptable compared to what winter should be (especially in those areas), not climo. You know, Currier and Ives, people ice fishing, etc. If we judged everything by climo, it would be pretty depressing in our part of the world. It’s just reality. While I am definitely in the camp of wall to wall cold during DJF, heck even thru April, I understand that living south of 50’ means getting occasional thaws. Chinook effect can be stronger here then Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 58 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Guess I should get ready for my 1ft of snow. Was just thinking about Erie, Princeton area, what a bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 This point click forecast not too optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Ricky is forecaster today for Friday -Friday nite period and says there is a possibility of 2-4 inches near and north of I-88 based on the current runs. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 18z NAM says put a fork in it locally. Better luck to those N and W of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Ricky is forecaster today for Friday -Friday nite period and says there is a possibility of 2-4 inches near and north of I-88 based on the current runs. That was a hell of a writeup for a non major storm. Appreciate the detail RC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Best in the biz 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 While the 18z operational GFS is a Rainer the 18z GEFS is slightly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 NAM has the 12" line sneak through east end of the city (Toronto). I'll eat crow if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Best in the biz You might have to back track when you see how much snow the best in the biz is forecasting for you. So much for the pros being in your camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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