Stebo Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 23 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: So is the Hi-Res GFS and the GEFS not the upgraded version? GEFS isn't upgraded. I don't know what the Hi-Res GFS is, but I am going to assume that is just a different name of the current GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 I remember reading an IWX AFD earlier in the week that having such a stacked cutoff low like this in January is fairly rare, thereby cutting off any cold air intrusion from the polar jet. I'm pretty sure no matter what time of year, models tend to struggle at times with cutoff's. Maybe that's why there's been inconsistency right up to and during this event aside from slim +/- freezing level surface temps being so tight. My weenie ass is used to warm 850's nosing in but this whole system seems upside down with plenty of sub freezing air aloft but surface levels being stubborn. Seems to me this an early fall early spring type of scenario as opposed to middle of winter. Still hoping for a reach around lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Some wet flakes beginning to mix in here. It's a race against time here as it looks like the precip will only last till around midnight or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Figured it was a good sign down south when it was mixing here earlier than i expected. GL down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, getting to be a little much. I'm gonna actually have to moderate if it keeps up. 1 hour ago, Stebo said: GFS "upgrade" has really destroyed a half way decent model. It is almost to the point of being useless. Hasn’t that been the case ever since the upgrade? Garbage in garbage out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: I remember reading an IWX AFD earlier in the week that having such a stacked cutoff low like this in January is fairly rare, thereby cutting off any cold air intrusion from the polar jet. I'm pretty sure no matter what time of year, models tend to struggle at times with cutoff's. Maybe that's why there's been inconsistency right up to and during this event aside from slim +/- freezing level surface temps being so tight. My weenie ass is used to warm 850's nosing in but this whole system seems upside down with plenty of sub freezing air aloft but surface levels being stubborn. Seems to me this an early fall early spring type of scenario as opposed to middle of winter. Still hoping for a reach around lol And we're hoping for some sloppy seconds from tonight's wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Beer one is going down the hatch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Well im not gonna bitch to much when I can do this in January lol... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, ChiTownStorm11 said: Beer one is going the hatch. Better pace yourself, you got a long night of rippage ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Looking at the radar, what’s the expectation? Looks as if the band rotating west will end soon in south suburbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Well im not gonna bitch to much when I can do this in January lol... Better than some... Cold Rain and Snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Pouring fatties. Once a layer of slush gets on the pavement it will start accumulating fast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Looking at the new DVN RAOB makes it pretty surprising that it's still 80/20 rain/snow here. Only an extremely shallow layer of above freezing air at the surface. Even light precip should be enough to quickly flip this over to all snow. Grrr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Was just outside doing chores and there was a distinct lack of any precipitation despite the radar returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Anyone else taking up drinking to deal with this weather pattern? The struggle is real. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, DaveNay said: Was just outside doing chores and there was a distinct lack of any precipitation despite the radar returns. That’s insane. Pouring fatties here, roads whitening up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 The boundary is like six inches away. So about one more hour of rain if I'm lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: That’s insane. Pouring fatties here, roads whitening up now Five miles makes the difference? (It's snowing now though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, DaveNay said: Five miles makes the difference? (It's snowing now though) I’m sure of that right about now. Back to some drizzle here but less than 3 miles down the road it’s pouring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 00z NAM is not good for Chicago proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Pouring fattiest here as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Mostly snow here finally, prob 75/25 snow/rain. Some nice flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: I’m sure of that right about now. Back to some drizzle here but less than 3 miles down the road it’s pouring snow. I'm down in Owesgo for the weekend, but down the road from you back home has been back and forth between rain/snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 You can't get more miserable than this. 34F and raining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 52 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looking at the new DVN RAOB makes it pretty surprising that it's still 80/20 rain/snow here. Only an extremely shallow layer of above freezing air at the surface. Even light precip should be enough to quickly flip this over to all snow. Grrr Finally got a chance to look at that, and ILX is very similar to DVN. Very odd indeed things have struggled to quickly change over to snow everywhere, especially as surface temps have dropped a few degrees with cooling taking place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Still hoping I can squeeze out a slushy inch here tomorrow. Woof. Bring on February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Looking at the new DVN RAOB makes it pretty surprising that it's still 80/20 rain/snow here. Only an extremely shallow layer of above freezing air at the surface. Even light precip should be enough to quickly flip this over to all snow. Grrr 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Finally got a chance to look at that, and ILX is very similar to DVN. Very odd indeed things have struggled to quickly change over to snow everywhere, especially as surface temps have dropped a few degrees with cooling taking place. The freezing level does look low enough for snow. It is surprising. Only thing I can figure, and this may not explain it, is that there is a touch of dry air aloft between about -5C and -10C. It's not really even dry, just not saturated. Maybe RC or someone else can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: The freezing level does look low enough for snow. It is surprising. Only thing I can figure, and this may not explain it, is that there is a touch of dry air aloft between about -5C and -10C. It's not really even dry, just not saturated. Maybe RC or someone else can chime in. Only thing I can think of is it was pretty foggy before, and at the onset of precip. Maybe the high saturation "water logged" the flakes as they hit the melting layer (around 500ft) and caused rapid melting? All snow here now, and ripping pretty nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 32 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Anyone else taking up drinking to deal with this weather pattern? The struggle is real. I'm on beer 3 at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM is not good for Chicago proper. Wasn't Chicago proper always a 1-3" event? That said, after watching 12 NAM runs over the past 72 hrs...whatever it shows now....eh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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