buckeye Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Experiencing what we have so far this winter, I'm not sure why anyone wouldn't put their chips on the most pessimistic outcome. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 27 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: 6z EPS looks pretty favourable for Toronto. It has 60-70% probability of >3". Too bad the costal low doesn't wrap up inland...could has shifted those richer reds further west. The bane of the Toronto snow lover is the Appalachians and that permanent costal thermal gradient that deepening lows are drawn to like bees towards honey. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Nam is zzzz, warmer, north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Nam is zzzz, warmer, north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Nam is zzzz, warmer, north lol. pessimism.exe has stopped working 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 49 minutes ago, buckeye said: Experiencing what we have so far this winter, I'm not sure why anyone wouldn't put their chips on the most pessimistic outcome. If the GFS is the most pessimistic outcome, I am comfortable hedging away from that. The only thing worse than this winter has been the GFS' performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Nam is zzzz, warmer, north Lol... Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: If the GFS is the most pessimistic outcome, I am comfortable hedging away from that. The only thing worse than this winter has been the GFS' performance. It got the stung out garbage storm a couple weeks back but it's been meh besides that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 GFS is already failing horribly in the Plains with precip-type.Not surprising.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Above freezing for the first time since January 9. Models painting quite the gradient across metro here. Nada north maybe 3-4” south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 MKX LONG TERM... Thursday Night through Saturday...Forecast Confidence is Medium. Models have started to trend toward a stronger deepening low that lifts NE Friday into Saturday. Previous guidance was flatter with the progression and kept some of the precip bottled up further south. This change would favor more precip wrapping into southeastern Wisconsin as the low pushes east. Now with that said, there are still some questions as to whether models have a good handle on the system. The initial low digs into MO/AR Thursday night into Friday and transitions into a closed low over the TN/OH Valleys. Then a second piece of energy digs south and this is what could cause the system to deepen as the two features phase over the OH Valley. The past few systems that have impacted the area have had a similar trend where 2-4 days (where we are currently) out models had more significant phasing and stronger lows which bumped up QPF totals. Then as you got closer in the 1-2 day period they backed off and QPF amounts trended back down. This has largely been the result of models inability to handle the phasing of closed lows. Will be keeping a close on eye on how guidance handles these features over the next few model cycles. Subtle adjustments to QPF were made with this forecast and these changes keep us below the 50th percentile for both QPF and Snow amounts. This is likely a good place to be based on the lingering uncertainty. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance are narrowing in on some of those higher QPF and snow amounts. So, if models hold onto this trend will likely continue to nudge amounts upwards. Another complicating factor is that with the low deepening warmer air gets wrapped in and temps Friday through Saturday could be such that we end up with more of a mix of rain/snow than all snow. The profile aloft is cold enough for all snow but there could be a deep enough layer near the surface to melt some of the snow. Do think models could have a slight warm bias to temps and have nudged values down slightly but this would still support a rain/snow mix. The system exits to the east Friday night into Saturday with light snow ending by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures through the period hold pretty steady around freezing for lows and into the mid 30s for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: ride it Married to the sref plumes and cousin to the NAM. Cut off timewise a bit early to 2nd wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: If the GFS is the most pessimistic outcome, I am comfortable hedging away from that. The only thing worse than this winter has been the GFS' performance. Actually the gfs schooled the euro on one of our systems. All the models have been horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Snow depth this morning was 5". Will be interesting to see how much it will actually change over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 31 minutes ago, madwx said: Snow depth this morning was 5". Will be interesting to see how much it will actually change over the next few days This ain't the winter for snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12z CMC goes from rain to wet snow for the GTA. 3-5" of wet snow to be precise. As the initial low wraps around just south of us, the warmer air creeps its way into the GTA. Once the coastal begins developing, we'll see how fast the thermals cool thereafter. Edit: Not overly optimistic right now. It's a pretty complex set-up and timing is everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The weekend system is confusing for a few reasons: 1) Very slow movement of the upper low 2) Highly variable precipitation rates + banding 3) Marginal thermals, causing snowfall accumulations to be dependant on precip rates. Areas with stronger upward motion may win out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The 12z GFS through 345 hours is just meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Trend toward a stronger system, especially on the NAM, is not helping around Chicagoland because it helps to wrap in warmer air. Granted we are talking about the difference between like 1005 mb and 1010 mb, but it could end up mattering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Trend toward a stronger system, especially on the NAM, is not helping around Chicagoland because it helps to wrap in warmer air. Granted we are talking about the difference between like 1005 mb and 1010 mb, but it could end up mattering. glad you're coming around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: glad you're coming around NAM does overamp sometimes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Precipitation just started here. At first it was a mix of very light sleet and snow. Now it is freezing rain with a bit of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 euro following consensus of a DAB+ followed by a rainer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Alek's calls this winter have been $$. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Alek's calls this winter have been $$. Don't go against seasonal patterns lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 24 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: euro following consensus of a DAB+ followed by a rainer #DUD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: euro following consensus of a DAB+ followed by a rainer The Euro has your back yard at 6+.... Granted its 10:1, but thats much better than a DAB... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 terrible troll roll there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The spin machine is on full tilt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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