Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Start the marathon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Looks hot for IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Well, if it does transpire, can't argue with back-to-back snowstorms on Saturdays. At least no commuting problems for us working stiffs. Interesting that this could potentially be the third Saturday in a row with a storm. I'm rooting for the Euro - 8" sounds pretty good, although it would likely be wet snow, and thus brutal to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 00z NAM is pretty diggy with the upper level low so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 To be expected but 0z NAM takes a chainsaw to snow totals in NE & IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 43 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Looks hot for IA More like cold. The main energy/moisture totally pivots around Iowa, dropping nothing on the state. The upper low has taken a giant leap south compared to this morning's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Couple things on the 00z NAM... Stronger system which wraps in some warmer air Look how far west it still is at 12z Sat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: More like cold. The main energy/moisture totally pivots around Iowa, dropping nothing on the state. The upper low has taken a giant leap south compared to this morning's 12z run. I think he was talking about the HRRR run above his post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: Well, if it does transpire, can't argue with back-to-back snowstorms on Saturdays. At least no commuting problems for us working stiffs. Euro ensembles looked pretty good for our area. A lot of members had >6" for us. Let's see tonight's runs. No expectations right now. This could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Hopefully 00z runs don't throw a curveball (or it's a good one if they do) but am currently leaning toward a total of 4-6" around here. I'm not sure why since everything has seemingly underachieved imby and this storm is going to be plagued with temp issues. But to be clear, I don't expect to actually see 6" on the ground and maybe not even 4". Other than the slop aspect, it should be a pretty picturesque snow on the trees. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 GFS continues to be a torch with most snow confined to Great Lakes. Either it's going to hit a home run being the only model sniffing out warmer temps or going to look really stupid next to the rest of guidance. I do believe there will be transitions between rain and snow especially preceding the main upper low closing off. However I think once that upper low deepens and closes off that things will certainly be more snowier than gfs is depicting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Definitely very marginal temps for any accumulation. However with a relatively strong closed low and the fact it will be strengthening as it passes over us, makes me think dynamics could compensate for lack of colder air. I remember this clipper a few years ago came through with very marginal temps but it was very compact and wound up. We ended up dynamically cooling to around 32-31 and efficiently accumulated snow with moderate to sometimes heavy rates. I know this isn't a clipper but made me think of how wrapped up this system is aloftAgree that better dynamics could be at play later on in the event. Also it's late January and not late March or April, that helps. I was thinking about the daytime vs nighttime issue and even though it's not worry about sun angle season yet, would think with such marginal BL temps, daytime might hurt if rates are too low vs same conditions at night. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Storm is even more dragged out on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Agree that better dynamics could be at play later on in the event. Also it's late January and not late March or April, that helps. I was thinking about the daytime vs nighttime issue and even though it's not worry about sun angle season yet, would think with such marginal BL temps, daytime might hurt if rates are too low vs same conditions at night. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Totally agree with this. With an already high water content snow with low ratios marginal daytime temps will definitely favor more slush over accumulations and white rain like you said. I think best shot here will be overnight Thurs into Fri when wind direction shifts more northerly as upper low pulls east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 There really isn't a compelling reason to believe the GFS thermal profiles. Always have to be skeptical of outliers... maybe a little less so if it's the ECMWF as the outlier but that is not the case this time. What kind of track record does this upgraded GFS have to put a lot of faith in it? Like you said, it doesn't mean the snowier models are going to nail amounts either because we are still dealing with questionable 2m temps. This discrepancy with the temps aloft has been interesting to watch. I have never been more curious to look at actual observed 925 mb temps in the coming days lol100% agree. I was looking more closely at the various model depictions and the GFS doesn't make much physical sense. Particularly Thursday night into Friday, there's barely any thermal gradient with a developing and strengthening 925 mb low and it keeps doing this run after run. Regardless of ultimately how things turn out, the 00z NAM depiction makes sense as a direct point of comparison. It has the warmer air on the east and southeast side of the low wrapping back into the colder air on the north and northwest side of the low. The GFS has most of the 925 mb low uniformly from 0 to +1C until Friday evening, like it's wrapping that air in and locking it in place. If the GFS ends up wrong as we expect, would hope the modelers at NCEP will investigate what went wrong. Based on WPC's internal collaboration graphics this afternoon, they completely tossed the operational GFS thermal profiles as well.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 100% agree. I was looking more closely at the various model depictions and the GFS doesn't make much physical sense. Particularly Thursday night into Friday, there's barely any thermal gradient with a developing and strengthening 925 mb low and it keeps doing this run after run. Regardless of ultimately how things turn out, the 00z NAM depiction makes sense as a direct point of comparison. It has the warmer air on the east and southeast side of the low wrapping back into the colder air on the north and northwest side of the low. The GFS has most of the 925 mb low uniformly from 0 to +1C until Friday evening, like it's wrapping that air in and locking it in place. If the GFS ends up wrong as we expect, would hope the modelers at NCEP will investigate what went wrong. Based on WPC's internal collaboration graphics this afternoon, they completely tossed the operational GFS thermal profiles as well. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Is there a reason the OP GFS is consistently different than the Ensemble mean with respect to 925mb temps? Is it an initialization error or something else? I'd imagine if the same software was used for the operational as the Ensembles it would be a lottery and some runs the OP would be more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Is there a reason the OP GFS is consistently different than the Ensemble mean with respect to 925mb temps? Is it an initialization error or something else? I'd imagine if the same software was used for the operational as the Ensembles it would be a lottery and some runs the OP would be more bullish. Honestly don't know what's going on at this point, why I said hopefully they do a case study and can attempt to address the issue if it ends up being wrong as seems likely. I wish I could give a better explanation. The divergence crops up on Thursday morning and then it's a strong outlier until Friday night. I think one of the best timestamps to compare is 12z Friday. One of these things is not like the other (00z GFS, 00z NAM, 00Z GGEM, 12Z ECMWF, 00z GEFS ptype as proxy). 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 What an odd storm we have on our hands. Fits this winter perfectly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 If anything is going to torch the sfc-925 mb layer, it's the RAP. It loves to do that, but even it generally has the 925 mb 0C line south of the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 00z Euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Really tragic how the NAM is a rainer for half the event in NE IL. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, IllinoisWedges said: Really tragic how the NAM is a rainer for half the event in NE IL. if you get the 5" the map above your post shows in this pattern...take it and run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 This one reminds me of the dollar brown paper bag of candy you would buy as a kid. Dreaming of your great purchase as you walk to the counter, bag of crap. Rainer mode on 8 here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Call is looking $$$ Plume mean looks about 1.9 on the nose and taking the most dud like route to get there Euro gonna shit the bed like usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Going to get a whole bunch of mild air and that’s about it outta this. Going to compact the snowpack and mess with my champaign powder skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Call is looking $$$ Plume mean looks about 1.9 on the nose and taking the most dud like route to get there Euro gonna shit the bed like usualGonna have 1.9” before Friday is even here.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Call is looking $$$ Plume mean looks about 1.9 on the nose and taking the most dud like route to get there Euro gonna shit the bed like usual The essence of Jerry Taft lives on 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 28 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Gonna have 1.9” before Friday is even here. . counterpoint the pros got it right, 1-2 followed by a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 6z EPS looks pretty favourable for Toronto. It has 60-70% probability of >3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 counterpoint the pros got it right, 1-2 followed by a rainerLost soul is lost.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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