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January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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48 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I have no idea on this one, it could be everything. I am going to bet more of the same where it is literally everything.

To call this winter warm is an understatement. All (3) of the plow-worthy events here have been on days when the temp at some point was ABOVE freezing. Since I live in the city with a modest property, I choose to move my snow by hand as a form of seasonal exercise. Today's messy mixer was the heaviest snow I can remember putting a shovel to, and I'm no youngster. More of the same? Not sure I'm a fan of that, lol

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27 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'm going with an early Feb '98 analog storm.  Weird cut off with a pocket of cold air where it does something stupid like snow in Memphis and rain in Indy.   

Yeah, the Euro shows it heading due east with the surface low in southern IL transferring to VA. I would imagine that the east coast weenies ears perked up.

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The last system was relatively easy to make a general long range call on.  This one is a more convoluted setup with marginal boundary layer conditions.  I do think a band of sig snow is possible somewhere.  As for here, it appears that rain, snow, and possibly even a little ice could all occur during the period.

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Kind of a significant difference in thermal profiles between the NAM and GFS at 84 hrs, especially south of I-80 back toward the western Midwest.  Both have precipitation in the same area so can't say it's because one model has precip and the other doesn't.

gfs_T850_us_15.thumb.png.3e11f8a3a04129fc6bddbb08961ae00c.png

namconus_T850_us_53.thumb.png.d1960fce2826826604d9dbaf71c335ca.png

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