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January 18-19 SWFE Obs


wxeyeNH
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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

The bulk of the precip is and was slated to be in the 6-10PM timeframe. We are well ahead of what most models had for totals around 5pm.

 

Eh. The models were hitting WNE with a tenth or so by 21 or 22z. I think we're about on track.

Dusting here.

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9 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Just has a shredded look to it. Typical SWFE is more of a wall of precip “thump” no? This has been kind of on and off and looks to continue that way.

It's a cold overrunning event. We're not even really discussing sleet or ZR with this one as it gets pinched off down in PA. So the radar has a cold snow look to the echoes. But it looks like full coverage of precip over the region with varying intensity. We've been saying from the beginning that this one doesn't have a lot of strong, prolonged forcing with it. But some will see 1"/hr around that 0-3z mark even if ratios are average at best. It's pretty much just been a few tenths in the can in W MA and CT over the past hour. Models ramp it up over the next few hours a bit so we'll see.

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Yeah I think everything is on track more or less. Most guidance didn't have more than an inch or two by 00z in western areas and very little at all in eastern areas. Models did cut back a little bit in SW CT today but they were kind of going wild there previously with more than half inch of qpf. Still looks like widespread advisory event for most posters with maybe some marginal warning amounts in the northwest interior areas and maybe a lolli or two further east where someone gets left with a couple transient bands maxing out. 

This is basically a 4-6 hour thump of light to moderate snow. Only briefly heavy in transient bands...with maybe 2 hours of lighter junk of each side of that period. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think everything is on track more or less. Most guidance didn't have more than an inch or two by 00z in western areas and very little at all in eastern areas. Models did cut back a little bit in SW CT today but they were kind of going wild there previously with more than half inch of qpf. Still looks like widespread advisory event for most posters with maybe some marginal warning amounts in the northwest interior areas and maybe a lolli or too further east where someone gets left with a couple transient bands maxing out. 

This is basically a 4-6 hour thump of light to moderate snow. Only briefly heavy in transient bands...with maybe 2 hours of lighter junk of each side of that period. 

I was very surprised HVN reported +SN right from the jump.

When it started we quickly became moderate, and there were a lot of moderate reports at the time but never less 1/4" mi vis id say.

Quick question, why did BDR only report SN and not +SN at the start. They were at 0.25 mi vis. I thought intensity was determined by reduced visibility from falling snow, regardless of the per hour rate. We talked about this recently when you can get 1"/hr and still be reporting -SN because of the ratios. 

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I was very surprised HVN reported +SN right from the jump.

When it started we quickly became moderate, and there were a lot of moderate reports at the time but never less 1/4" mi vis id say.

Quick question, why did BDR only report SN and not +SN at the start. They were at 0.25 mi vis. I thought intensity was determined by reduced visibility from falling snow, regardless of the per hour rate. We talked about this recently when you can get 1"/hr and still be reporting -SN because of the ratios. 

Someone else may be able to answer this better than me, but if the ASOS is not convinced that all the vis drop is solely from precip intensity but also from BLSN or fog, then it will report less then heavy. 

I'm not sure how it detects how much of the vis drop is from precip intensity though. I know it can sense falling precip obviously but it somehow distinguishes it from blowing snow too. 

In the case of BDR today, not sure why it didn't report heavy snow because winds were light and there's no actual fog. 

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25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Picked back up again after a little lull. 1-1.5” otg.  Been outside with the kid past 2 hours. Nice little storm. 

yup just came in, kids are having a blast..I always shovel them a huge pile, they pretend they are climbing Mt Washington. They don't care if there is 2 feet or 2 inches, they are happy with whatever falls! 1.4" down, 20.5°/18°

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

yup just came in, kids are having a blast..I always shovel them a huge pile, they pretend they are climbing Mt Washington. They don't care if there is 2 feet or 2 inches, they are happy with whatever falls! 1.4" down, 20.5°/18°

you'll be approaching 6 most likely, enjoy it in this mediocre (at best) winter.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Someone else may be able to answer this better than me, but if the ASOS is not convinced that all the vis drop is solely from precip intensity but also from BLSN or fog, then it will report less then heavy. 

I'm not sure how it detects how much of the vis drop is from precip intensity though. I know it can sense falling precip obviously but it somehow distinguishes it from blowing snow too. 

In the case of BDR today, not sure why it didn't report heavy snow because winds were light and there's no actual fog. 

I think you’re right. I don’t get too wrapped up with all that, but unless it’s augmented by an observer it may think that. 

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This winter has been awesome, at least up here. A near two footer off the rip, a couple more small events before and after Christmas, and then a warm weekend in January to break up the cold and dry and spend time outside. 

Still just a coating with some weenie flakes. 

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