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January 18-19 SWFE Obs


wxeyeNH
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https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/verification-january-18-19-winter-storm.html

It was stated that this was a relatively easy forecast, and in hindsight that assessment was correct.

 

Here is the forecast, which was originally issued last Wednesday at 8pm:

 

FIRST%2BAND%2BFINAL%2BCALL.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is the outcome:

 

Verify.jpg

 

 

Modeling remained steadfast from a fairly extended lead that the original parent system would track well to the west, and it would begin to redevelop as it traversed the area, which would limit snowfall of greater than 6" across the region. 

This was indeed what transpired. However the mixing was not quite aggressive as forecast due to the resistance of the arctic high to the north. This was largely immaterial to the forecast snow amounts, since the majority of mixing was not expected to occur until the event was winding down, but the upper cape did receive a bit more than the forecast of around 1", This is evidenced by the 2.5" reported in Sandwich, MA. Additionally, the upper bound of the 4-7" forecast range to the north of Boston would have been better served to be 6", as opposed to 7". The anticipated subtle topographical enhancement in Berkshires did not play out, likely due to the very progressive nature of the system.

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This is how you do a SWFE....

000
NOUS41 KGYX 191358
PNSGYX
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>015-200158-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
858 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

...SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR JANUARY 18-19 SNOW EVENT...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Maine...

...Androscoggin County...
2 N Auburn                   6.1 in    0842 AM 01/19   Public
Wales                        6.0 in    0827 AM 01/19   Public
4.0 SE Poland                5.6 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP
2 E Lewiston                 5.5 in    0720 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Lisbon 0.6 S                 5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Turner                       5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP
Winthrop 9.4 W               5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
2 W Auburn                   5.0 in    0810 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Auburn 2.1 NNW               5.0 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS

...Cumberland County...
1 ESE Raymond                6.3 in    0649 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
4 WSW New Gloucester         6.1 in    0818 AM 01/19   NWS Employee
New Gloucester 3.0 SE        5.8 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
1 N Cumberland               5.8 in    0543 AM 01/19   Public
1 ENE Westbrook              5.6 in    0801 AM 01/19   NWS Employee
1 SSW Brunswick              5.6 in    0504 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Freeport                     5.5 in    0851 AM 01/19   Public
2 SE New Gloucester          5.5 in    0750 AM 01/19
South Portland 1.7 S         5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Cumberland Center 4.4 NW     5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Portland Jetport             5.4 in    0743 AM 01/19   ASOS
2 WSW Falmouth               5.3 in    0822 AM 01/19   NWS Employee
Gray NWS Office              5.1 in    0743 AM 01/19   Official NWS Obs
Bridgton                     5.0 in    0852 AM 01/19   Public
5 S Bridgton                 5.0 in    0655 AM 01/19

...Franklin County...
New Sharon 2.0 NW            5.8 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
0.9 E New Sharon             5.7 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP
Temple 1.8 W                 5.5 in    0600 AM 01/19   COCORAHS

...Kennebec County...
Waterville                   6.8 in    0835 AM 01/19   Public
1 NW Farmingdale             6.7 in    0808 AM 01/19
Mount Vernon                 6.5 in    0846 AM 01/19   Public
South China                  6.5 in    0837 AM 01/19   Public
Belgrade                     6.5 in    0826 AM 01/19   Broadcast Media
Sidney 2.6 NNW               5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Wayne 3.2 SSE                5.4 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Clinton                      3.7 in    0400 AM 01/19

...Knox County...
Union 3.0 NW                 5.5 in    0800 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Hope                         5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Union 3.0 W                  5.0 in    0653 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Rockland 1.4 E               3.3 in    0630 AM 01/19   COCORAHS

...Lincoln County...
Wiscasset                    6.0 in    0850 AM 01/19   Public
Newcastle 2.1 SW             6.0 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Trevett 0.3 NE               5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
1 SSE Alna                   5.0 in    0806 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Dresden 1.5 NW               4.9 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS

...Oxford County...
Lovell                       6.0 in    0828 AM 01/19   Public
Bethel 6 SSE                 5.5 in    0649 AM 01/19   COOP
4 SSW Otisfield              5.1 in    0814 AM 01/19   NWS Employee
1.5 E Hartford               4.8 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP
1 W Otisfield                4.8 in    0655 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Bryant Pond                  4.6 in    0811 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter

...Sagadahoc County...
Topsham 3.7 NE               5.0 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
2.3 NW Bath                  5.0 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP

...Somerset County...
The Forks                    8.0 in    0851 AM 01/19   Public
Cornville                    6.5 in    0853 AM 01/19   Public
Mercer                       6.0 in    0850 AM 01/19   Public
3.6 W Rockwood               6.0 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP
North New Portland 0.3 WSW   5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Rockwood 7 SSE               5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP
1.9 S Harmony                4.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP

...Waldo County...
Prospect 2.6 W               5.5 in    0630 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Belmont 2.7 SSE              5.5 in    0630 AM 01/19   COCORAHS

...York County...
2 W York                     6.4 in    0824 AM 01/19   Broadcast Media
York 5.2 N                   6.4 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
2.6 SW Ogunquit              6.4 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP
5 NNW Acton                  6.0 in    0800 AM 01/19
Biddeford 1.5 NNE            6.0 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
2 NE Kennebunk               5.8 in    0443 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
2 NE Kennebunk               5.8 in    0445 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Hollis Center 5.4 NW         5.6 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Acton 2.7 NW                 5.6 in    0530 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Cornish 5.6 ESE              5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
North Waterboro 1.2 NE       5.2 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Parsonsfield 3.9 NE          4.0 in    0720 AM 01/19   COCORAHS

...New Hampshire...

...Belknap County...
Meredith 2.9 SSW             4.6 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Laconia 7.9 E                4.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Belmont 1.7 SW               4.2 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Sanbornton 2.3 WNW           4.1 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Tilton Northfield 3.3 NE     4.0 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS

...Carroll County...
Bartlett                     9.0 in    0357 AM 01/19   Public
3 NW Sandwich                6.5 in    0756 AM 01/19
North Conway                 6.5 in    0730 AM 01/19   COOP
North Conway 1.4 SSW         5.8 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Madison 1.7 SE               5.7 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Madison                      5.5 in    0441 AM 01/19   Public
1 W Wolfeboro                5.4 in    0747 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Wolfeboro 0.6 SW             5.4 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
East Sandwich                5.3 in    0600 AM 01/19   COOP

...Cheshire County...
Keene                        6.0 in    0515 AM 01/19   Public
West Swanzey 1.0 WNW         5.5 in    0500 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
West Chesterfield 0.3 WNW    5.2 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
1 ENE Spofford               5.0 in    0812 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
1.6 W Keene                  5.0 in    0600 AM 01/19   COOP
Marlborough                  4.5 in    0843 AM 01/19   Public

...Coos County...
1.0 S Berlin                 9.0 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP
Randolph 1.4 NE              7.8 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Lancaster 0.5 N              7.0 in    0600 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Pinkham Notch                6.2 in    0515 AM 01/19   COOP
1 E Mount Washington         3.5 in    0744 AM 01/19   CO-OP Observer
Gorham                       3.3 in    0515 AM 01/19   COOP

...Grafton County...
Bristol 0.4 SSE              4.9 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Plymouth 1.6 NNE             4.4 in    0800 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Orange                       4.2 in    0700 AM 01/19   COOP

...Hillsborough County...
Milford 0.5 S                5.5 in    0815 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Manchester Airport           5.0 in    0745 AM 01/19   ASOS
1.1 SE Nashua                4.9 in    0710 AM 01/19   COOP
2 SW Brookline               4.7 in    0845 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Amherst 3.7 NNE              4.2 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS

...Merrimack County...
Northfield 2.8 E             5.8 in    0704 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Bow 1.6 NW                   4.8 in    0710 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Newbury 1.6 NW               4.5 in    0600 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
Chichester 2.7 SSW           4.5 in    0300 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
2 E Concord                  4.1 in    0710 AM 01/19   ASOS
Pittsfield 0.2 SSW           4.0 in    0800 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
1 SSE Henniker               4.0 in    0748 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
South Sutton 2.5 SSE         4.0 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS

...Rockingham County...
Portsmouth Airport           6.0 in    0745 AM 01/19   ASOS
Derry                        5.5 in    0851 AM 01/19
Northwood 2.9 WSW            5.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
2 WSW North Hampton          5.0 in    0609 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter

...Strafford County...
3 SE Dover                   5.5 in    0600 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Dover 0.8 E                  5.0 in    0800 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
2 WNW Newington              5.0 in    0732 AM 01/19   Trained Spotter
Barrington 3.2 E             4.5 in    0700 AM 01/19   COCORAHS
&&
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