Weather Will Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 WB EPS has only 10-20 percent of snow 3 inches or more for this weekend. 10 day plus is more enthusiastic, but that is 10 Day plus again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 WB 6z GEFS. Starts to show snow chances increasing Day 7 on. Maybe we will have some storms to track by the end of this work week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Oh there will be storms to track, but those probability maps from the ens means continue to be indicative of a pattern where chances for frozen are low south of about central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Why do use the 90% contour line as the demarcation zone? Are you adjusting for the inherent cold bias in the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 WB EPS has only 10-20 percent of snow 3 inches or more for this weekend. 10 day plus is more enthusiastic, but that is 10 Day plus again... You have bee saying for 10 days now that the euro is enthused 10 plus days out 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 The problem at this point is we are at a "I've seen this movie before" portion of the winter. It always shows chances for snow in the long range and then pulls the rug out as we get closer. I'll believe it when I see it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Why do use the 90% contour line as the demarcation zone? Are you adjusting for the inherent cold bias in the GEFS? Those maps shift around from run to run beyond D7, but I was looking more at the EPS than the GEFS. If guidance should begin to hone in on a discrete event with the upcoming "cold period", then those maps will indicate that. Otherwise they wax and wane and overall reflect the unfavorable pattern for snow that persists for the MA. The pattern this week strongly favors waves tracking up the Apps, then towards the end of the week right overhead. That one looks like a soaker on guidance. Could see widespread 2-3" rain totals along I-95 this week. Cold air comes in on the heels of the Friday storm. Verbatim the GFS is suggesting a brief period of snow for NW areas as the low departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ji said: You have bee saying for 10 days now that the euro is enthused 10 plus days out Exactly.... you can’t get your hopes up unless those probabilities start going up inside of 10 days. Think of it like a coin toss. I can toss it a 100 times but my chances of getting heads is always 50% with every toss. Our probability of snow over a two week period as stated in previous posts is usually a certain percentage....your antennae should go up when the percentage goes above the average and when we are getting into the shorter ranges. Probability maps are just a quick and dirty way to see if our snow chances are trending better, worse, or about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Exactly.... you can’t get your hopes up unless those probabilities start going up inside of 10 days. Think of it like a coin toss. I can toss it a 100 times but my chances of getting heads is always 50% with every toss. Our probability of snow over a two week period as stated in previous posts is usually a certain percentage....your antennae should go up when the percentage goes above the average and when we are getting into the shorter ranges. Probability maps are just a quick and dirty way to see if our snow chances are trending better, worse, or about the same. And every few hours we can all feel bad again when you throw another quick and dirty map out. Looking forward to the next one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Those maps shift around from run to run beyond D7, but I was looking more at the EPS than the GEFS. If guidance should begin to hone in on a discrete event with the upcoming "cold period", then those maps will indicate that. Otherwise they wax and wane and overall reflect the unfavorable pattern for snow that persists for the MA. The pattern this week strongly favors waves tracking up the Apps, then towards the end of the week right overhead. That one looks like a soaker on guidance. Could see widespread 2-3" rain totals along I-95 this week. Cold air comes in on the heels of the Friday storm. Verbatim the GFS is suggesting a brief period of snow for NW areas as the low departs. Any other winter I would be very interested in the projected follow up low that comes through on Friday. Not so much this winter though. Prevailing theme through much of the winter seems to be to adjust the 500's westward (thus the track of the storms) as we near in time. But that said, I did notice on our last system (over the weekend) that the NS was quicker then projected inside 24-48 hours and that is what we probably would like to see here to hopefully help drag the boundary farther SEward for this possible system. Might be worth keeping an eye on the lead low that goes into the lakes. We start seeing that adjust towards the east might be a good sign as far as a farther SE placed boundary. One other thing I have noted is that we went from low pressure to the N and W of this system 2 days ago to where we are now seeing weak high pressure over top. Right now it is too weak and displaced too far north to be much, if any, of a player but let's see where we go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Next Sunday threat gaining legs on ens members. Also gaining BL temps along with that precip. Wash, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 It looks like a parade of rainstorms on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Why when the long range shows a bunch of snow we don't believe it, but when it shows a bunch of rain we immediately give up and accept it as gospel? Nevermind, I know why, it's because the long range is never right when we want it to be LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 23 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: It looks like a parade of rainstorms on the GFS. Mid week next week kinda has my interest...At 216 theres a strong storm in the the Tennessee valley and a nice high in Canada...it would only take some minor shifts verbatim, to make that a winter storm here and not a rainer. But of course that storm could disappear on the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Looks like one needs to be generally N&E of a Pittsburgh-Pottstown-Allentown line, to be seriously in the game for mid-late week snow accums. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said: Looks like one needs to be generally N&E of a Pittsburgh-Pottstown-Allentown line, to be seriously in the game for mid-late week snow accums. Yeah that ones not gonna happen around these parts but maybe we can score next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: It looks like a parade of rainstorms on the GFS. I wouldn't say that for mid-next week yet...that High to the north has been a persistent feature in the GFS even by Day 9/10 standards. I'm keeping an eye on it (be it out of sheer desperation or because this would be a look we haven't seen yet this year, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 39 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Yeah that ones not gonna happen around these parts but maybe we can score next week I have a bit of hope for next week too...Can't remember where I read it, but someone cited a met as saying that the only way we can get snow to work in a pattern like this would be an overrunning event. Now, the look we see Day 9/10...I wonder if that would fall under that category? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said: Looks like one needs to be generally N&E of a Pittsburgh-Pottstown-Allentown line, to be seriously in the game for mid-late week snow accums. The way it looks now there would be some snow/sleet up that way, but the bigger threat might end up being freezing rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Saturday night/Sunday system shows up on the 12z gfs. HPC is sliding off the east coast as system gets to the MA. Not ideal. Still time for that to change. Any other winter and we'd be excited about this possible event. I'd imagine that if you slowed the NS down a bit it would allow the HPC to hang on longer thus allowing for more of a fresh cold air source. By the time the system gets to us, it's an old/stale cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 CMC on board as well. Too early to hash out details. Lot's of weather going on this week and it will have an impact on what the weekend system has to offer us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 37 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Saturday night/Sunday system shows up on the 12z gfs. HPC is sliding off the east coast as system gets to the MA. Not ideal. Still time for that to change. Any other winter and we'd be excited about this possible event. I'd imagine that if you slowed the NS down a bit it would allow the HPC to hang on longer thus allowing for more of a fresh cold air source. By the time the system gets to us, it's an old/stale cold air mass. With absolutely no blocking, timing has to be darn near perfect. Verbatim we get some snow tv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Getting the boundary far enough south after the friday storm will seal our fate for Sunday I think. A stronger Friday storm should help with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 PP storm gaining traction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: PP storm gaining traction... It’s definitely trickling towards a better solution. Hopefully we won’t have to flush this one later in the week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 New thread troopers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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