PivotPoint Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I’ve been watching this time frame for a little while. We get this pseudo ridging in the middle of the country right as a NS vort is rounding the base of the trough sliding east. Ive seen these small clippers that redevelop before. They usually redevelop off the EC too late for us due to the ridge axis and progressive nature of our troughs, but sometimes they slow down enough if the trough can dig a little deeper and upstream flow is slowed down with 50/50 of exiting coastal (storm before the storm) Something to keep an eye on for a 1-4” deal. Would sure brighten the mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 12Z EPS not showing any love for snow lovers thru Day 8 for DMV. Better for Central PA though this run so at least the bleeding has stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I heard through the grapevine that PSU is guaranteeing a reboot of the Storm of the Century. Hot damn, missed the first one because I lived in San Diego at the time. Can't wait to experience it first hand instead of just reading about it.. Signed assclown and occasional tool. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 12Z WB EPS from my nonexpert eyes seems to be indicating two systems to watch in the Day 10-15 period. Attached is the mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 31 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I’ve been watching this time frame for a little while. We get this pseudo ridging in the middle of the country right as a NS vort is rounding the base of the trough sliding east. Ive seen these small clippers that redevelop before. They usually redevelop off the EC too late for us due to the ridge axis and progressive nature of our troughs, but sometimes they slow down enough if the trough can dig a little deeper and upstream flow is slowed down with 50/50 of exiting coastal (storm before the storm) Something to keep an eye on for a 1-4” deal. Would sure brighten the mood Be careful with that look on the diving NS. That was the look that reeled me in at range for the system we are currently seeing run through now. As you can see now the NS ended up being more progressive and dropping into the States farther east then originally projected. eta: But I agree, I like the look as well if it can actually verify. Good drop placement and track to actually pop a good little event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I heard through the grapevine that PSU is guaranteeing a reboot of the Storm of the Century. Hot damn, missed the first one because I lived in San Diego at the time. Can't wait to experience it first hand instead of just reading about it.. I just can’t resist when a mention of that storm comes up. Just got through reading and watching some video on it. We call it the storm of the century but it may well have been the storm of the millennium. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Besides Feb 93, when was the last time we had a good old fashioned gradient pattern with waves coming at us every 2 days? Seems like every winter we look for overrunning gradient patterns - and sometimes the models tease us with them - but they rarely materialize. The early 90s seemed to have a lot of gradient patterns though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I just can’t resist when a mention of that storm comes up. Just got through reading and watching some video on it. We call it the storm of the century but it may well have been the storm of the millennium. The sequel is coming this March my friend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, Inverted_Trough said: Besides Feb 93, when was the last time we had a good old fashioned gradient pattern with waves coming at us every 2 days? Seems like every winter we look for overrunning gradient patterns - and sometimes the models tease us with them - but they rarely materialize. The early 90s seemed to have a lot of gradient patterns though. Feb 2003, Dec 2013, Feb/mar 2014 all bore some resemblance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: To me that’s the exact look of PDII. Lets do that and then repeat March 1993 on March 13. Then let’s rate the winter lol Almost. But as I recall the wave/surface low in PD-II was not all that strong, it was by and large a huge overrunning event into very cold air. And there was much better blocking in place for the high. At any rate, as depicted here we hold on a remarkable amount of time to frozen/freezing, which is like PD-II in a way. I know it's ridiculous to detail a single run 2 weeks out there (but still fun, and all we got right now!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 41 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The sequel is coming this March my friend. 41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Feb 2003, Dec 2013, Feb/mar 2014 all bore some resemblance. So...you're guaranteeing another Storm of the Century then, here in a new century now!! You saw it here first (well, 2nd, JB beat you to the punch!!). (Saying this all in jest, by the way, as I'm sure you know!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 4 hours ago, Ji said: 12z gfs That ridge in the west should help it dig nicely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Gfs gets mix even into cities Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Be careful with that look on the diving NS. That was the look that reeled me in at range for the system we are currently seeing run through now. As you can see now the NS ended up being more progressive and dropping into the States farther east then originally projected. eta: But I agree, I like the look as well if it can actually verify. Good drop placement and track to actually pop a good little event. Yea, you’re right. And I don’t expect this to come to fruition. But I, like you, think the placement at 500mb looks like a great spot if something were to have enough space and strength to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 i thought the euro and eps were a big letdown today.The Gefs caved to the 00z EPS and then the 12z eps caved to the old Gefs smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Gfs gets mix even into cities for the midweek storm. Yeah, appears to be getting colder and colder with each run. Probably a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs “caves” to EPS mid February. Shocking. Good news yes. That look is not a shutout one. But color me skeptical until we get it inside day 10. Yes it’s ok. And it’s a slight adjustment from good. But it’s also only a slight “seasonal” adjustment away from shutout again. This +1000. We've been teased with better looks (or at least less bad looks) off and on for weeks. Not going to get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, appears to be getting colder and colder with each run. Probably a blip. Blip? (How many blips make a trend?...lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Blip? (How many blips make a trend?...lol) 3 blips in a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i thought the euro and eps were a big letdown today.The Gefs caved to the 00z EPS and then the 12z eps caved to the old Gefs smh Well that didn't take long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Didn't pay much attention but the 12z GEFS kept it interesting for Thursday. Wintry options are on the table. As is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Well that didn't take long. the eps wasnt as bad as it was a few days ago but i thought it took a step back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 3 blips in a trend. At this point in this winter, nothing is a trend until we actually have some wintry precip falling from the sky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ji said: the eps wasnt as bad as it was a few days ago but i thought it took a step back I understand, it's just frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Local weather mets barking about big midweek changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like a possible legit frozen event midweek unfolding. Inside 5 days . Trend across almost all guidance has been colder . Eps ,Gefs, Euro,Gfs,UK all colder . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: There aren’t many examples. The best examples of a March save in Baltimore are 1896 when only 4” fell before March then 13.8” in March. 1931 only 3.4 then 10” in March. 1942 only 4” then a 22” snow on March 30th There are more examples of years where there was little snow before mid Feb then a lot after. And since mid Feb is still far enough out it’s plausible we get a snow that week these are still mathematical possible comps 1914 nothing before Feb 13 then 23” after 1924 2” before Feb 2/19 then 10.2/11.6/9.4 in Feb/mar/apr 1937 2.8 before 2/16 then 22.8 after 1960 1.8 until Feb 13 then 32” after 1993 also had very little until mid feb then several small events and then March 93 Winter of 59-60 was a complete shutout at DCA through Feb 13th. But what's also interesting is that there was a significantly negative AO/NAO throughout that winter, including the snowless December and January. Eventually that negative AO paid off after mid-February. But goes to show you that simply having a negative AO/NAO doesn't guarantee snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: Winter of 59-60 was a complete shutout at DCA through Feb 13th. But what's also interesting is that there was a significantly negative AO/NAO throughout that winter, including the snowless December and January. Eventually that negative AO paid off after mid-February. But goes to show you that simply having a negative AO/NAO doesn't guarantee snow. I'll take my chances every single time though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That’s like 19/20 that start dc north with frozen. Surprising! Even some legit snow to mix to drizzle solutions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: 3 blips in a trend. This a very definite trend IMO. Now where it leads or whether it reverses is anybody’s guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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