Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Gfs is close but not close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is close but not close enough Is it seasonal at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Is it seasonal at least?Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Is it seasonal at least?Off by one county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is close but not close enough We are getting very close for Thursday on. The trends in the gfs are good. I chose to see the positive. I’m sure somebody will say it’s impossible, but I’m in for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 There is a mecs hecs potential on feb 14 per gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 12z gfs Ahhh the Great Valentine's Day Storm of 2020....just a day early. Maybe it can wait for the ULL and extend one more day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 12z gfs I'm in NYC Valentine's weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We are getting very close for Thursday on. The trends in the gfs are good. I chose to see the positive. I’m sure somebody will say it’s impossible, but I’m in for now. Yeah it was an encouraging run on the GFS. CMC took a step back though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Clipper next weekend? I really miss clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 12z gfs To me that’s the exact look of PDII. Lets do that and then repeat March 1993 on March 13. Then let’s rate the winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Psu predicted that when jb cancelled winter we start getting good looks again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Psu predicted that when jb cancelled winter we start getting good looks again He also canceled winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Psu predicted that when jb cancelled winter we start getting good looks again Now If only JB2 would do the same, the atmosphere would likely go bonkers with a 1609 Jamestown settler type blizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 GFS 12 Op...trend or blip TBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 WB 12Z GEFS thru next weekend ( not including Val. Day weekend yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 the models quietly have backed off a disaster February....the EPS look for a big SE ridge has dissipated for the most part. Interesting turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We are getting very close for Thursday on. The trends in the gfs are good. I chose to see the positive. I’m sure somebody will say it’s impossible, but I’m in for now. Me too. The battleground needs to shift SE a bit and we could have two or three events that would be fun. It's possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 25 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I'd love to do some research on winters where we went well into February with a shutout(or close to it) and then still finished around or above average for the winter. I don't think I have the proper tools to do that though. Any years come to mind? There aren’t many examples. The best examples of a March save in Baltimore are 1896 when only 4” fell before March then 13.8” in March. 1931 only 3.4 then 10” in March. 1942 only 4” then a 22” snow on March 30th There are more examples of years where there was little snow before mid Feb then a lot after. And since mid Feb is still far enough out it’s plausible we get a snow that week these are still mathematical possible comps 1914 nothing before Feb 13 then 23” after 1924 2” before Feb 2/19 then 10.2/11.6/9.4 in Feb/mar/apr 1937 2.8 before 2/16 then 22.8 after 1960 1.8 until Feb 13 then 32” after 1993 also had very little until mid feb then several small events and then March 93 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ji said: the models quietly have backed off a disaster February....the EPS look for a big SE ridge has dissipated for the most part. Interesting turn... The eps kinda reminds me of Feb 93 at the end. I wouldn’t mind that repeat. You probably would. It was a constant train of storms from Feb 15 on but none were clean snow. Even up here there was a lot of mix but they each put down about 4-6” of snow/ice up here and about 1-3” towards the cities. (kind of like that early Feb overrunning wave last year just 5 of them in a row). Btw a repeat of that does not mean a repeat of March 93. That storm was an extreme anomaly for that pattern. It’s why I laugh when people pull out that analog. 99% of the time with that h5 look nothing happens. But if we were to get a repeat of the Feb pattern and adjust it 50 miles south....we would all be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: FYP Lol. What people don’t get is not only was that week unlikely to produce a superstorm from a statistical POV, it was unlikely to even produce any snow. 90% of the time a full latitude pole to tropics Ridge west trough east alignment is a cold dry look for a few days. The only reason that storm came up was the fact it was a triple phased monster bomb. Any regular wave gets squashed in that look. There were only a few storms ever in that configuration and all of them were phased systems. The other recent one was Feb 1995. It developed later than 93 and wasn’t a triple phase just a typical phase but it did develop fast and was a dynamic system. I had thunder snow in Herndon VA with that storm. It put down about a foot in only a few hours in the Philly area. It bombed too late to crush our area but the point is the type of rare dynamic storm it takes to overcome the suppressive flow of that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 The eps kinda reminds me of Feb 93 at the end. I wouldn’t mind that repeat. You probably would. It was a constant train of storms from Feb 15 on but none were clean snow. Even up here there was a lot of mix but they each put down about 4-6” of snow/ice up here and about 1-3” towards the cities. (kind of like that early Feb overrunning wave last year just 5 of them in a row). Btw a repeat of that does not mean a repeat of March 93. That storm was an extreme anomaly for that pattern. It’s why I laugh when people pull out that analog. 99% of the time with that h5 look nothing happens. But if we were to get a repeat of the Feb pattern and adjust it 50 miles south....we would all be happy. You’ve done it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, anotherman said: You’ve done it now. Ehh it’s inevitable. Every post I make gets misused or twisted out of context by some assclown at some point. I’m done wasting time wording posts to avoid the tools who will misinterpret it and go off on a tangent of stupid. Life’s too short. 90% of everyone here knows the points I’m trying to make. The other 10% can bite me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Thanks for the info. I found 22 winters at BWI specifically that were similar snow total wise to this winter heading into February, and 11 of them finished as dud winters(single digit totals for the winter). Interestingly, the majority of those 11 either followed long stretches of well above average snowfall winters, or were directly following/followed by a HUGE, historic winter. Fitting my belief that although our winters are hard to predict, we do follow general patterns over the years. What goes up must come down, and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He also canceled winter lol Yea but I suck at seasonal or super long range “forecasts”. And frankly I can’t stand it. But in way too many years that’s the only game in town. But I would much rather be analyzing medium range to determine the exact track of a system or if it’s going to phase or short range plots of moisture convergence and lift to determine who gets a death band. (It’s me). I like to think I am ok at that stuff. This day 15 crap is like a tarot card reading from a drunk psychic. I can analyze the pattern the guidance is showing, and guess based on seasonal trends and climo how it might trend...but honestly it’s mostly me just applying statistical analysis from the past. I don’t have any real insight on what’s going to happen in 2-3 weeks. Yea the statistics on this type of seasonal pattern say we end up with a total clunker 80% of the time. But what about the other 20? I have no way of knowing this won’t be one of those 20%. I’m just playing the odds. Hopefully the odds are wrong this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Gefs “caves” to EPS mid February. Shocking. Good news yes. That look is not a shutout one. But color me skeptical until we get it inside day 10. Yes it’s ok. And it’s a slight adjustment from good. But it’s also only a slight “seasonal” adjustment away from shutout again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 0Z EPO from EPS...I guess here lies the hope for md February and beyond if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Mjo today backed away from a high amp run through phase 4/5/6. We can maybe survive a low amp wave into warm phases so perhaps that supports the better looks today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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