Ji Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 That’s cool because we probably punt the first half of Feb. familiar territory to punt 2 weeks at a time. Still have a dim candle lit for late Feb. Eps says seasonal after next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 28 minutes ago, Ji said: 47 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That’s cool because we probably punt the first half of Feb. familiar territory to punt 2 weeks at a time. Still have a dim candle lit for late Feb. Eps says seasonal after next weekend Which season? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps says seasonal after next weekend 40s. Colder rain. Sounds good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Looking over the latest guidance for this weekend I think there might be a legit shot for some in here to see a coating to an inch tonight through N Va and central MD. Rates will play a big part and elevation may be the key (read into that the favored jackpot spots). I am still looking over things but may try to post something in a little bit in a devoted thread so as to keep it out of the mid and long range thread. WB 6z 3k NAM now showing a dusting in areas as you describe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 30 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 40s. Colder rain. Sounds good. Just like April and May will be with our -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 11 hours ago, wawarriors4 said: Think you’re referring to February 2009 around Lancaster, PA. Narrow band set up and absolutely dumped on parts of Lancaster and Chester county. Yep! That's gotta be it, thanks! I remember seeing the radar and hearing the reports and being so jealous, but also thinking how painful it must have been for areas right around it. Basically a lake effect snow situation with such a small area getting dumped on and everyone outside that getting almost nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yep! That's gotta be it, thanks! I remember seeing the radar and hearing the reports and being so jealous, but also thinking how painful it must have been for areas right around it. Basically a lake effect snow situation with such a small area getting dumped on and everyone outside that getting almost nothing. Yes I remember that. I was away at college at Millersville. We got about 1” or so there I think and just northeast I believe got like a foot lol crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I am not really sure this belongs in here. Being this is the banter thread and all... But I actually can live with the look the EPS is now throwing at us just beyond the mid range. At this time we are seeing a couple of things I mentioned that I was hoping for just the other day. Getting a better look in the west with a shifting of the EPO eastward as well as the beginnings of a northern based +PNA. We are also seen somewhat of a shifting of the PV around Greenland SEward to help knock down the flow in the east. Still some work to be done but the look is more manageable then what we were just seeing a few days ago. eta: GEFS is still rough though. But we are seeing one thing I like with that as well. That has also moved to shift the PV around Greenland SEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, showmethesnow said: I am not really sure this belongs in here. Being this is the banter thread and all... But I actually can live with the look the EPS is now throwing at us just beyond the mid range. At this time we are seeing a couple of things I mentioned that I was hoping for just the other day. Getting a better look in the west with a shifting of the EPO eastward as well as the beginnings of a northern based +PNA. We are also seen somewhat of a shifting of the PV around Greenland SEward to help knock down the flow in the east. Still some work to be done but the look is more manageable then what we were just seeing a few days ago. eta: GEFS is still rough though. But we are seeing one thing I like with that as well. That has also moved to shift the PV around Greenland SEward. This is for overflow banter...or maybe that's what the actual Banter thread is for and this is the "real" one? I've lost track at this point!! Anyhow...yeah, GEFS isn't the greatest. But overall, whatever the indications are worth, I think there are signs for things to potentially be somewhat better toward the middle of the month. I don't think we exit the month of February with a zero in the snow department (not saying how much above zero it will be, mind you!). But that could be sheer optimism on my part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Ji said: 3 hours ago, BristowWx said: That’s cool because we probably punt the first half of Feb. familiar territory to punt 2 weeks at a time. Still have a dim candle lit for late Feb. Eps says seasonal after next weekend It’s better. Of course when our avg high is 45 seasonal often isn’t good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s better. Of course when our avg high is 45 seasonal often isn’t good enough. First we torch next week, get the golf clubs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: First we torch next week, get the golf clubs out Hit me with a 3 wood please. I’ll drive to your house 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Was pleaseantly surprised at the number of snowy eps members after next weekend. I know its far out there in time but hopefully its on to something. After basically nothing on eps through next weekend it appears that chances possisbly go up after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just thought I would throw this in here for reference. I have been tracking snowfall in my backyard since the year 2000 here in Severna Park. Over that period the average snowfall year over year has been about 24.14 inches per year. The crazy thing is that over that 20 year period we have only had 3 seasons that were at or above average. The years where we had "feast" years carried the average for all of the "famine years". The good news is that February is by far our snowiest month so we still have time to get that one storm to make it into a feast year! Praying for some snow!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 6 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0z EPS Control likes Valentines Day weekend This is better known as Presidents Day weekend. A frequent weekend for strong snow storms (up until the past few years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Today is February 1st. I wonder if it’s time to put this thread to bed and move on with a new February one. Unless the February Banter thread is the new Model Discussion thread??!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, attml said: Just thought I would throw this in here for reference. I have been tracking snowfall in my backyard since the year 2000 here in Severna Park. Over that period the average snowfall year over year has been about 24.14 inches per year. The crazy thing is that over that 20 year period we have only had 3 seasons that were at or above average. The years where we had "feast" years carried the average for all of the "famine years". The good news is that February is by far our snowiest month so we still have time to get that one storm to make it into a feast year! Praying for some snow!!! You have almost a shut out in Feb. 05. There were 2 coastals during the last week of February about 4 days apart. Neither one gave you anything measurable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Also for reference here is a look at what my yearly spreadsheet looks like. This one in particular is from our snowiest year. I have the spreadsheet setup to feed my averages tab which compiles all of the overall stats. My dad is retired and lives right next door so I always have him on the lookout for even the smallest amount of flakes if I am not around so I can keep my stats as accurate as I can. The measurement in red denoted ice/sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: You have almost a shut out in Feb. 05. There were 2 coastals during the last week of February about 4 days apart. Neither one gave you anything measurable? Wow - That is a great catch! I just went back and looked at that year and we had 6 inches on the 24th and 5 inches on the 28th. It looks like somehow my March totals over-wrote my February totals for that year in my Averages spreadsheet? I am manually correcting it now. Thank You! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 13 hours ago, osfan24 said: This is random but does anyone remember that really isolated snow event that hit west of Philly I believe? I want to say it was a decade or more ago possibly. From what I remember, it was some fluke snow band that just sat over a small area and dumped snow. I think there were reports of like 15 inches. I tried to submit this last night. I live in Media Delaware County we picked up 7” between 8 pm to 2am. This band in Media was complete with a few flashes of lightning there was definitely a convergence going on. The forecast at 5 pm was for flurries and light snow to end by 630 or so and just after that is when things ramped up. The band went from Eastern Lancaster County to just east of the 55 corridor in south Jersey. Notable snow fall amounts Darby Pa 10” just about 1 mile southwest of PHL Airport to just over a foot in Swedesboro Nj. At the same time this band was dumping Bensalem 32 miles NE was partly cloudy a few flurries and Wilmington Delaware 22 miles southwest barely picked up 1-2” it was an amazing night. I clearly remembering seeing the thunderstorm like clouds pulling by the nearly full moon as this band broke down and moved away between 1245 to 2 am. Feb 3rd to 4th 2009. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, attml said: Wow - That is a great catch! I just went back and looked at that year and we had 6 inches on the 24th and 5 inches on the 28th. It looks like somehow my March totals over-wrote my February totals for that year in my Averages spreadsheet? I am manually correcting it now. Thank You! I figured something must have got messed up. I just went back and looked at BWI for that month and they have 10 recorded. Both storms underachieved somewhat but did manage to hit the low end warning criteria. We would all sign up for that week right now if we could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I figured something must have got messed up. I just went back and looked at BWI for that month and they have 10 recorded. Both storms underachieved somewhat but did manage to hit the low end warning criteria. We would all sign up for that week right now if we could. We would gladly take that week! After correcting the error you noticed for the 2004-2005 season that actually lifted that year to another above average (totaling 6 in that 20 year span). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 15 minutes ago, attml said: Wow - That is a great catch! I just went back and looked at that year and we had 6 inches on the 24th and 5 inches on the 28th. It looks like somehow my March totals over-wrote my February totals for that year in my Averages spreadsheet? I am manually correcting it now. Thank You! Once you add those totals in, you actually have 6 seasons above average, not 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: Once you add those totals in, you actually have 6 seasons above average, not 3. Yep - gotta quit putting whiskey in my coffee!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, attml said: Yep - gotta quit putting whiskey in my coffee!!! Lol. I was just going to say you be drinking early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I'd love to do some research on winters where we went well into February with a shutout(or close to it) and then still finished around or above average for the winter. I don't think I have the proper tools to do that though. Any years come to mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I'd love to do some research on winters where we went well into February with a shutout(or close to it) and then still finished around or above average for the winter. I don't think I have the proper tools to do that though. Any years come to mind? 1609. Some of the Jamestown settlers recorded their trip to see the Washington monument and documented a 53” blizzard on Presidents Day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 1609. Some of the Jamestown settlers recorded their trip to see the Washington monument and documented a 53” blizzard on Presidents Day. Unfortunately one of the settlers got fringed. What heartbreak that must have been for that poor soul. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Scraff said: Unfortunately one of the settlers got fringed. What heartbreak that must have been for that poor soul. Probably one of @psuhoffman ancestors. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 35 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I'd love to do some research on winters where we went well into February with a shutout(or close to it) and then still finished around or above average for the winter. I don't think I have the proper tools to do that though. Any years come to mind? Well the big one that is legendary in that regard is 59/60. Snow season basically started with a storm on 2/13/60 and then three significant events in March For BWI: 8.2" 2/13-14/60; 0.5" 2/21/60; 2.0" 2/25/60; 10.5" 3/2-4/60; 5.9" 3/9-10/60; 5.1" 3/16/60. There were 12 snow cover days that March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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