Chris78 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it actually did make a move toward the Euro. But that's probably going to be the final position, with our luck. it gets the vort on top of us . At 18z it was over PA. Get it south another 150 miles or so and we might have a fighting chance. Good vort passes can do crazy things during prime climo lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: This thing is crazy. Anybody check out the progression on the ICON? Ever see a low go from East TN to Chicago? Of course, happens all the time. But seriously...it's probably going to rain, but this one has me interested in a masochistic sort of way. It's going to fail, but it really is kinda interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Saddest winter in many years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 00z gfs says bowling ball season starts early this year....Hopefully a foot of mashed potatoes comes along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Of course, happens all the time. But seriously...it's probably going to rain, but this one has me interested in a masochistic sort of way. It's going to fail, but it really is kinda interesting.It's a no stress storm. Its not like its going to take snow away from us lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Here’s the @Bob Chill storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: Here’s the @Bob Chill storm. And now ladies and gentlemen we have a battle of two storms. In one corner, we have the totally wacky, really wonky, surprise snow 20th anniversary... @Ji storrrrrm! And in the other, ya got the fantasy land, Miller A cleeeeeean coastal... @Bob Chill storrrm!! Which will win? Will it be a draw? (as in either both snow or both bust) Showdown!! P.S. I think I'll bet imaginary money on the wonky storm! Teeam wonk! (but obviously I'll take either!) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 0z GFS might be the worst run I have seen yet. Storm after storm with passable tracks but nothing but rain. Then it ends with the mother of all cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 36 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 00z gfs says bowling ball season starts early this year....Hopefully a foot of mashed potatoes comes along with it. It is acting like a March pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 0z GFS might be the worst run I have seen yet. Storm after storm with passable tracks but nothing but rain. Then it ends with the mother of all cutters. 36hr event and still going in Omaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Euro doing that same thing as 12z, but warmer for the western folk this time. Weird little system. Ah, what could have been with cold air around...oh well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, Mersky said: The Bob Chill storm just showed up on the euro Hm...looks like we got two swings coming up, then! (that is, if we are still seeing this a few days from now). One is a knuckle ball, and the other may just be a fastball...can we homer on one or both? (But seriously, given all the uncertainty about February, I sure hope we can take advantage of at least one of these!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 54 minutes ago, Mersky said: The Bob Chill storm just showed up on the euro That's a hell of a set up. I hope Bob checks the board before it's gone in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I got a feeling we are going to rebound back to a good look soon...still watching next weekend lolLooks like we got some tracking. The chill storm looks promising. The weekend storm is a matter of a super lucky placement of that 500mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 About 20 percent of 0z WBEPS members show snow for the far Northwest suburbs... let’s see if this is the start of a trend or a blip. 28 minutes ago, Ji said: On 1/19/2020 at 12:42 AM, Ji said: I got a feeling we are going to rebound back to a good look soon...still watching next weekend lol Looks like we got some tracking. The chill storm looks promising. The weekend storm is a matter of a super lucky placement of that 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 6z WB GFS for this weekend. (Only 10 percent GEFS support). Will we finally get a storm that will trend in the right direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Here's some thoughts from an amateur... The 6z gfs has the HPC above the lakes and pressing slightly more. It is 2 mb stronger thus allowing more cold air to work into this system. It also causes the primary to be considerably southeast which allows for a more favorable transfer closer to the coast. It's not there yet, though. Having the primary running through eastern Kentucky instead of western would be the difference between the transferred low running inland verses closer to the coast. We need that HPC to press more in future runs. This is beginning to look like it has some potential for areas north and west with some elevation. Pretty good agreement beginning to show up on the GEFS for LPC placement at hr 138. Notice the four eastern outliers in the Atlantic. That's our hope. We want to see more of the LPC in the Atlantic not overtop of us in future runs. The optimist/weenie would say that there's plenty of time to get a slight shift east. All we need is about a 100-150 mile shift east in 6 days to put areas west of the bay in play. It could always go the other way though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Here's some thoughts from an amateur... The 6z gfs has the HPC above the lakes and pressing slightly more. It is 2 mb stronger thus allowing more cold air to work into this system. It also causes the primary to be considerably southeast which allows for a more favorable transfer closer to the coast. It's not there yet, though. Having the primary running through eastern Kentucky instead of western would be the difference between the transferred low running inland verses closer to the coast. We need that HPC to press more in future runs. This is beginning to look like it has some potential for areas north and west with some elevation. Pretty good agreement beginning to show up on the GEFS for LPC placement at hr 138. Notice the four eastern outliers in the Atlantic. That's our hope. We want to see more of the LPC in the Atlantic not overtop of us in future runs. The optimist/weenie would say that there's plenty of time to get a slight shift east. All we need is about a 100-150 mile shift east in 6 days to put areas west of the bay in play. It could always go the other way though. Nice write-up. It's probably closer to five days. I like the fact that it didn't take the GFS too much time to get on board with the EURO. If this storm were to transfer off the coast, could it bomb out and be more likely to draw in more cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Positive trends in the Eps overnight. 850s Bottom ( 24hr total precip ) What are the 850s during the critical panels rather than after the precip is out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Positive trends in the Eps overnight. 850s Bottom ( 24hr total precip ) Definitely an uptick of snowy solutions. This is Dulles. Even an uptick towards DCA but this was very noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The panel before this also has 850s below 0 i95 and west thru N. Va and MD. Definitely improved. Plenty of qpf at hr 144 and 150 on the 0z run worth watching at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The look on the Euro at 90 is pretty nice. Juicy lp on the gulf coast and hp over the top. What happens from there we dont know yet. But I will take that my chances with that look in January. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 WB 6Z EPS...3 inch or more probability. There are a few we would all hug but still an uphill battle . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks good . Nice trends so far . Yesterdays 12z below. 6z Yesterday 12z I’m curious as to what the 126 and 132 hour of that 6z euro looked like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: @WinterWxLuvr 6z Eps at 132 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 its not a great winter pattern nor is is cold pattern but its probably not a shutout pattern either moving ahead. it is mindboggling how we dont get blocking...ever. Look at how the NAO was negative all Fall and as soon as Dec 1 hit--it just knew! and it has never looked back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 7 hours ago, stormtracker said: That's a hell of a set up. I hope Bob checks the board before it's gone in 12 hours. Eps still has it but increased the spread instead of tightening. I could be looking past an event this weekend though. It's as dicey as they come and my gut says absolutely no way but I'm rooting bigly to bust huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 well Icon gets started the 12z suite on a terrible note. How good is this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: well Icon gets started the 12z suite on a terrible note. How good is this model? It's basically the same as it's 0z run. No real change. Not good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, MD Snow said: It's basically the same as it's 0z run. No real change. Not good though. ICON is on level with the Panasonic model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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