CAPE Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, HighStakes said: This raging +AO in my opinion has been the killer as far as snowfall. We can still get plenty cold with the AO on the wrong side but we need -AO if were going get the kind of snow storms were hoping for. Looking back winters like 1993/1994, 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 are fools gold. They're anomalies that defy the odds. Now were always thinking we can score like we did in those years from a favorable EPO with no other support from the other indices. Sure the occasional wave can work out but it's not supposed to occur as frequently as it did in 14 and 15 where almost everything broke perfectly Generally agree. I posted pretty much the same thing yesterday. We could survive a +AO and do decently with snowfall, but not with a hostile PAC. The EPO ridge has been oft advertised, but not materialized since Nov. +PNA has been fleeting at best. A sustained +AO = death to snow chances here without other indices in favorable phases to somewhat mitigate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The Greay Valentine's Day Storm of 2020 keeps appearing on the GFS. Maybe we can score some white rain or at least be 35 and rain rather than 50 and rain. Wonderful. Just another thing to keep in mind on the day of intensified loneliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was never really THAT good. The canadien ridge temporarily traversed the NAO domain for a few runs. It wasnt that good? It had a block in a prime spot for several runs and on the final run before it flipped it actually remained there rebuilding for 5 or 6 days. No sense arguing what once was, but it was a good look on the ops for a few days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I believe 1942 paste bomb was on March 31/ April 1st so..... It will happen again. The storm we had on March 20/21 2018 was pretty impressive. I'll take that anytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 36 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It's got to be extremely rare to get shutout up here in Both February and March. Probably never has happened. I bet my GN it snows in Feb .Im just going to keep on keeping on..... tracking as I normally do and what frozen falls is what falls . Any snow is good snow Except yellow tinted . It’s never happened. Using the local coop here back to 1989 then Westminster before that...back to 1942 the worst Feb/March combination was 2002 with 1.5” total. So no we probably won’t get blanked. But a lot of the analogs to this years pattern were the most dreadful years. 2002 is one. 1988 only had 2.6” from Feb 1 on from a bunch of insignificant cartoppers. Same in 1950. 2008 only has a couple 1-2” snows. So we will luck our way to some snow. That’s 99%. An inch here or there somehow is almost a sure thing. But honestly if we get 2” the rest of the way from a couple insignificant events I don’t care. Honestly adding 2” to my current total won’t make me feel any better. If it’s not going to be a legit snowstorm I’d rather just stay warm and get to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I barely looked at anything this fall because all signs pointed to a lame year. Then I got suckered into believing we had a chance with the big -AO in Nov and a decent start to Dec. Once the AO flipped +++ I had that sinking feeling but still hung in because we've had a number of storms lately with a +AO and favorable pac. Sinking feeling returned in Dec after the relentless -pna but it was too early to give up. The latest long range ens flip away from -epo cold was the end for me. I knew right then that spending any more than a few brief mins a day is a complete waste of time. Thankfully I got really busy with work stuff and I'm having a great start to 2020. Perfect timing there. I'm done participating unless something realistic gets inside of 5 days or a legitimate good pattern gets inside of 7-9 days. D10+ has made every single one of us look like a fool this year. I've never seen such good agreement completely disintegrate every.single.time. At least 2011-12 never looked good. Those kind of disaster years are far better than this one. Curious what you thought looked really bad in the fall. Turns out some of Tom and HMs insights wrt the walker cell state and AAM were right but purely from classical analogs that matched a weak neutral enso with descending qbo and a similar north pac sst config the results were ok. Not great but not like this. This turned out like a Nina. Tom nailed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It’s very rare to get under 20” here. Only happens about 10% of the time. But we’re due. Hasn’t happened since 2008 when there was only 19.2” here. 2009 barely got to 20”. psu - what are you at on the season out of curiosity? I’m like .5 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I barely looked at anything this fall because all signs pointed to a lame year. Then I got suckered into believing we had a chance with the big -AO in Nov and a decent start to Dec. Once the AO flipped +++ I had that sinking feeling but still hung in because we've had a number of storms lately with a +AO and favorable pac. Sinking feeling returned in Dec after the relentless -pna but it was too early to give up. The latest long range ens flip away from -epo cold was the end for me. I knew right then that spending any more than a few brief mins a day is a complete waste of time. Thankfully I got really busy with work stuff and I'm having a great start to 2020. Perfect timing there. I'm done participating unless something realistic gets inside of 5 days or a legitimate good pattern gets inside of 7-9 days. D10+ has made every single one of us look like a fool this year. I've never seen such good agreement completely disintegrate every.single.time. At least 2011-12 never looked good. Those kind of disaster years are far better than this one. Yea man. It’s been brutal. Telleconnections at one point early on looked encouraging... cfs and some of the bigger Mets were calling for a backloaded winter with feb having a good year potentially. All looks like smoke and mirrors now. However I will say thy I think the no snow eventually turns in our favor in the sense that it actually becomes anomalous the longer it doesn’t snow. Eventually something breaks. Could be a March 93 for all we know but I agree for time being... not a lot of effort warranted 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It wasnt that good? It had a block in a prime spot for several runs and on the final run before it flipped it actually remained there rebuilding for 5 or 6 days. No sense arguing what once was, but it was a good look on the ops for a few days of runs. Yea, that’s a real good like actually. Trough at a perfect angle too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It wasnt that good? It had a block in a prime spot for several runs and on the final run before it flipped it actually remained there rebuilding for 5 or 6 days. No sense arguing what once was, but it was a good look on the ops for a few days of runs. 1. That’s an op at range. The ensembles never looked as good as that even but... 2. That’s not a true NAO block. That’s more of a WAR on roids, and it’s transient because... 3. There is no 50/50 there to help pump that ridge into the west NAO domain where we want it or to create confluence in the northeast. 4. The epo and pna ridges are displaced west of ideal It’s close to a good look but not. This is where we actually want those features centered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1. That’s an op at range. The ensembles never looked as good as that even but... 2. That’s not a true NAO block. That’s more of a WAR on roids, and it’s transient because... 3. There is no 50/50 there to help pump that ridge into the west NAO domain where we want it or to create confluence in the northeast. 4. The epo and pna ridges are displaced west of ideal It’s close to a good look but not. This is where we actually want those features centered. You're debating 'textbook' look over what I posted which you stated wasnt a 'good' look. I agree it wasnt strong on the ens means but plenty of members had such a look and besides the GFS there were other ops that had similar looks. My point isnt to debate you on textbook epic vs good. More was pointing out how guidance essentially did a 180 on that map I posted. I'm sure you can at least agree with that no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 15 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: psu - what are you at on the season out of curiosity? I’m like .5 About 11” I think. I’d have to go into my records and add to all the minor events in Dec but I’m not doing that. Too depressing. But it’s close to 11”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Bitch ass SE Ridge Yes, that has been one of the big problems this winter. But, being positive, we have 8 more weeks. What we are looking with confidence is two weeks or less. 5 or 7 days from now, unexpected opportunities will likely present and then we will be back in the game. I know that JB is ready to throw in the towel over the MJO and EPO.............. If he does, he is likely making a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You're debating 'textbook' look over what I posted which you stated wasnt a 'good' look. I agree it wasnt strong on the ens means but plenty of members had such a look and besides the GFS there were other ops that had similar looks. My point isnt to debate you on textbook epic vs good. More was pointing out how guidance essentially did a 180 on that map I posted. I'm sure you can at least agree with that no? I agree guidance degraded that look. But didn’t I warn you about that a week ago? The way the pattern was progressing it was unlikely the canadien ridge was going to be able to do much damage to the tpv as it briefly traversed the edges of the NAO domain. And the ensembles always has some doubt built into the means. So yes the look changed but it did exactly what I thought it would so I guess I’m not lamenting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 JMA is rain to snow next Thurs/Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: About 11” I think. I’d have to go into my records and add to all the minor events in Dec but I’m not doing that. Too depressing. But it’s close to 11”. Didn't you say your record low was 18"? That's all I'm rooting for now, everybody band together and carry PSU over the finish line to 19". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Didn't you say your record low was 18"? That's all I'm rooting for now, everybody band together and carry PSU over the finish line to 19". It’s ok even if I don’t get another inch I’ll be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Weeklies week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 but they flip the pattern around March 15 so we can enjoy a cold miserable spring!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Weeklies week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 but they flip the pattern around March 15 so we can enjoy a cold miserable spring!!! Pull down the shades lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Curious what you thought looked really bad in the fall. Turns out some of Tom and HMs insights wrt the walker cell state and AAM were right but purely from classical analogs that matched a weak neutral enso with descending qbo and a similar north pac sst config the results were ok. Not great but not like this. This turned out like a Nina. Tom nailed that. I thought the Pac looked sh!tty. Numerical data in nino zones looked sorta encouraging but the visual structure of the anomalies did not look like a nino at all. Especially in Sept. It looked like a nina was building in nino 1-3. 3.4 was warm because the entire western Pac basin was warm. Lol. I wrote off a nino in Sept and was surprised to see many people saying weak and/or west based nino was developing. To my eyes it looked cruddy. It just looked like the wpac was warm across a massive area and 3.4 didn't stand out. I'm not smart enough to know all the complicated mechanics of west based ninos but I didn't see anything that made me think a west based nino pattern was likely this winter. The PDO was crap also in the early fall. Didnt look anything like a +pdo but did trend towards + later in the fall. That's part of what sucked me in because a +pdo (nino or no nino) is a very reliable signal for decent snow in the east. Never really materialized though. I figured the ao/nao would work against us too because persistence is real and we're clearly in some sort of decadal cycle of +ao/nao. I had an open mind but my early thoughts were another +ao/nao year. Nov certainly made me think a -ao was possible but good god did that fail in Dec. My initial guess for the snow contest was around 60-70% of climo at the airports. I shouldnt have changed it (hindsight is accurate AF) but I went just below climo after Nov teasing us. If you look back to the teles and sst anoms in Dec you wouldn't think eastern snow was happening. The NE scored big early as the cold pattern eroded and it's been a dumpster fire up and dowm the coast since mid Dec. 6 straight weeks of fecal matter with glimmers of greener pastures at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Here's a visual of the pac ssta's in mid Sept. Does this look remotely like a good pac is developing? Not in my eyes at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: About 11” I think. I’d have to go into my records and add to all the minor events in Dec but I’m not doing that. Too depressing. But it’s close to 11”. I have recorded 10 so far but I did not include 2 very minor coatings which probably would add another .07 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Here's a visual of the pac ssta's in mid Sept. Does this look remotely like a good pac is developing? Not in my eyes at least No I was pretty pessimistic late summer early fall. I meant more in November. I thought by then things looked “ok”. Never great but years with a mish mosh of mediocre that were warm neutral enso in the past tended to be ok. I got that part way wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No I was pretty pessimistic late summer early fall. I meant more in November. I thought by then things looked “ok”. Never great but years with a mish mosh of mediocre that were warm neutral enso in the past tended to be ok. I got that part way wrong. Gotchya. Nov turned me around too until the +93 AO was prog'd in Dec and subsequently verified. The month came in at +.4 so didnt meet the criteria of a signal. It was just really unnerving. Jan's AO on the other hand... it's not going to take out 1993's +3.5 or anything but it will be over +2. If I looked at just the AO for Dec/Jan with no knowledge of ground truth I would immediately assume snowfall is below or much below avg here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gotchya. Nov turned me around too until the +93 AO was prog'd in Dec and subsequently verified. The month came in at +.4 so didnt meet the criteria of a signal. It was just really unnerving. Jan's AO on the other hand... it's not going to take out 1993's +3.5 or anything but it will be over +2. If I looked at just the AO for Dec/Jan with no knowledge of ground truth I would immediately assume snowfall is below or much below avg here. https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/2019-2020-dc-winter-forecast-periodic-polar-vortex-visits-to-bring-waves-of-brutal-cold-more-snow-to-dc-region Wow, long ways to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Nothing worse than a central gomex ridge. GFS long range somehow ninjas a KU storm for New England in fantasy range, but generally a hopeless pattern for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 19 minutes ago, Solution Man said: https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/2019-2020-dc-winter-forecast-periodic-polar-vortex-visits-to-bring-waves-of-brutal-cold-more-snow-to-dc-region Wow, long ways to go They were just a bit off for their January forecast lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: I believe 1942 paste bomb was on March 31/ April 1st so..... March 29-30 Westminster recorded 32" damn. https://instaweatherinsights.wordpress.com/2007/03/28/palm-sunday-snowstorm-of-1942/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, Sparky said: March 29-30 https://instaweatherinsights.wordpress.com/2007/03/28/palm-sunday-snowstorm-of-1942/ At least we can talk about past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I figured the ao/nao would work against us too because persistence is real and we're clearly in some sort of decadal cycle of +ao/nao. Looking at the last decade, heavily skewed to + since start of 2017, with the exception of mid-to-late 2019, which obviously has corrected itself. Looking back further: man, from mid 1988 to mid 1993 was UGLY. Conversely, look and drool at the late 1950's to early 1960s. No wonder it was a snow nirvana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Looking at the NAO, at first glance, the 2010s doesn't look too horrible. Definitely skewed positive from about 2013 on. But its deceptive. Most of the blue is in late summer to fall. If you just look at Jan - March, a different and more familiar picture emerges. After the spectacular neg spike of 2010 it has been downwhill, or rather uphill, uninterrupted + since 2015. That graph also clearly shows the state change from the 50s/60s/70s "good ole days" to a much more hostile environment since 1980. Something is clearly different. The big question for us, is it natural variability or you know what? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Looking at the NAO, at first glance, the 2010s doesn't look too horrible. Definitely skewed positive from about 2013 on. But its deceptive. Most of the blue is in late summer to fall. If you just look at Jan - March, a different and more familiar picture emerges. After the spectacular neg spike of 2010 it has been downwhill, or rather uphill, uninterrupted + since 2015. That graph also clearly shows the state change from the 50s/60s/70s "good ole days" to a much more hostile environment since 1980. Something is clearly different. The big question for us, is it natural variability or you know what? Don't say those two words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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