Solution Man Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 New Winter Low Point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 New Winter Low PointIt's basically a warmer version of 01-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: New Winter Low Point It's basically a warmer version of 01-02 Roughly 20 years apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I’m sure this time will be totally different 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I’m sure this time will be totally different Wow why can't we get the front to clear from the midweek storm. That's most depressing thing I've seen this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m sure this time will be totally different Wow why can't we get the front to clear from the midweek storm. That's most depressing thing I've seen this year Bermuda high ftmfw! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m sure this time will be totally different You just can’t make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I'm moving to Maine...it just doesn't want to get cold let alone snow here! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Wow why can't we get the front to clear from the midweek storm. That's most depressing thing I've seen this year The looks we are getting on the ops and ens now are pure ugliness. ++AO/+NAO, -PNA, 50-50 highs, failed attempt after failed attempt to build an EPO ridge...expect every outcome to be the exact inverse of what you want and you wont be disappointed. Then if something good happens, against all odds, you will be ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 17 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m sure this time will be totally different Wow why can't we get the front to clear from the midweek storm. That's most depressing thing I've seen this year Bitch ass SE Ridge 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Bitch ass SE Ridge I would of thought the wave the day before would of pushed the boundary far enough south east. I guess not in this winter lol. Euro,GFS and Ggem all look similar for next friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The looks we are getting on the ops and ens now are pure ugliness. ++AO/+NAO, -PNA, 50-50 highs, failed attempt after failed attempt to build an EPO ridge...expect every outcome to be the exact inverse of what you want and you wont be disappointed. Then if something good happens, against all odds, you will be ecstatic. I like how we have like 3 weakish waves along the front midweek each slowly pushing the boundary/gradient SE.....then it finally clears the area and we are cold enough for frozen for wave #4 but the caboose wave decides to amplify just enough to warm the critical layers for rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ji said: 26 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m sure this time will be totally different Wow why can't we get the front to clear from the midweek storm. That's most depressing thing I've seen this year Come on deep down you knew that’s exactly how it was going to look when a gradient pattern at day 15 showed up. How often do they actually work out here? 10% maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I like how we have like 3 weakish waves along the front midweek each slowly pushing the boundary/gradient SE.....then it finally clears the area and we are cold enough for frozen for wave #4 but the caboose wave decides to amplify just enough to warm the critical layers for rain lol. It's uncanny. Until proven otherwise, we are in complete fail mode for frozen here, with no end in sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: It's uncanny. Until proven otherwise, we are in complete fail mode for frozen here, with no end in sight. Then the GFS says we get to play the same game early the following week! ETA: some seasons it just finds ways to snow when the atmosphere says it is almost impossible, and then other years you have the complete opposite where it screws you every which way imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 With the torch coming early next week and the disgusting look in the mid/long range February is almost guaranteed to be well above average. We'll probably be +15 on the month by Thursday. I could never see this coming 2 months ago. Aren't we technically in an El Nino? I have lived in northern Carroll County for 12 years and have yet to measure less than 20 inches for any given season with 2011/2012 being the worst right at 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Man, what could have been. I guess it is still possible though very unlikely. If we were just to the N side of the gradient the next 5-15 days we would have made a run at seasonal averages if not exceeded them. Almost steady train of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3000 Miles of sprawling HP to the north . I'd take that chance in Early Feb . Problem is like you said..."to the North". No real mechanism or HL block to even help nose or bleed it down into the region. It really wouldnt take much either and that's the frustrating part. A neutral ao/nao would work here. But a ++AO/++NAO wont do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: With the torch coming early next week and the disgusting look in the mid/long range February is almost guaranteed to be well above average. We'll probably be +15 on the month by Thursday. I could never see this coming 2 months ago. Aren't we technically in an El Nino? I have lived in northern Carroll County for 12 years and have yet to measure less than 20 inches for any given season with 2011/2012 being the worst right at 20. It’s very rare to get under 20” here. Only happens about 10% of the time. But we’re due. Hasn’t happened since 2008 when there was only 19.2” here. 2009 barely got to 20”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Man, what could have been. I guess it is still possible though very unlikely. If we were just to the N side of the gradient the next 5-15 days we would have made a run at seasonal averages if not exceeded them. Almost steady train of moisture. I could see areas that end up on the right side getting a couple feet of snow during that 2 week period from several waves. Could be vermont and Maine though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Then the GFS says we get to play the same game early the following week! ETA: some seasons it just finds ways to snow when the atmosphere says it is almost impossible, and then other years you have the complete opposite where it screws you every which way imaginable. I find it generally snows here when the h5 pattern is favorable. Doesn't mean super cold, and 2009-10 might be a bad example (high standard) but in this context it works. When the key features are in the right places and phases, marginal 37 degree temps leading into an event end up 25 and snow. We are at the other end of the spectrum this winter. 37 ends up 50 and rain with a high sliding off the coast and a storm tracking to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Remember 48 hours ago when these 2 features were in exact opposite spots? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 The Greay Valentine's Day Storm of 2020 keeps appearing on the GFS. Maybe we can score some white rain or at least be 35 and rain rather than 50 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Remember 48 hours ago when these 2 features were in exact opposite spots? It was never really THAT good. The canadien ridge temporarily traversed the NAO domain for a few runs. It still does but it happens while we torch. But it’s way too transient to do any good or bully the pattern. It’s not a block. Just a weak transient ridge. The real issue is again the epo centers itself too far west setting up an RNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s very rare to get under 20” here. Only happens about 10% of the time. But we’re due. Hasn’t happened since 2008 when there was only 19.2” here. 2009 barely got to 20”. 2008/2009 was my first winter here. It is rare to get under 20. I would still put us as a slight favorite to break 20. We can score late and even the worst winters yield something back in March. Today may be rock bottom as far as seeing a sustained flip. Things are looking bleak. Maybe things back off a bit in the next couple days and give us better hope of something between the 7th and 16th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 47 minutes ago, Ji said: 52 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m sure this time will be totally different Wow why can't we get the front to clear from the midweek storm. That's most depressing thing I've seen this year Dude you got like 28C waters off your shore. What else could happen? The times are changin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: 2008/2009 was my first winter here. It is rare to get under 20. I would still put us as a slight favorite to break 20. We can score late and even the worst winters yield something back in March. Today may be rock bottom as far as seeing a sustained flip. Things are looking bleak. Maybe things back off a bit in the next couple days and give us better hope of something between the 7th and 16th. I dunno I have a bad feeling the mjo is about to go ape into warm phases and slam the door on February after next week. But I just saw JB actually tossed in the towel and said the same thing after seeing the mjo forecasts and so now I have to reconsider my stance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's uncanny. Until proven otherwise, we are in complete fail mode for frozen here, with no end in sight. I barely looked at anything this fall because all signs pointed to a lame year. Then I got suckered into believing we had a chance with the big -AO in Nov and a decent start to Dec. Once the AO flipped +++ I had that sinking feeling but still hung in because we've had a number of storms lately with a +AO and favorable pac. Sinking feeling returned in Dec after the relentless -pna but it was too early to give up. The latest long range ens flip away from -epo cold was the end for me. I knew right then that spending any more than a few brief mins a day is a complete waste of time. Thankfully I got really busy with work stuff and I'm having a great start to 2020. Perfect timing there. I'm done participating unless something realistic gets inside of 5 days or a legitimate good pattern gets inside of 7-9 days. D10+ has made every single one of us look like a fool this year. I've never seen such good agreement completely disintegrate every.single.time. At least 2011-12 never looked good. Those kind of disaster years are far better than this one. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 This raging +AO in my opinion has been the killer as far as snowfall. We can still get plenty cold with the AO on the wrong side but we need -AO if were going get the kind of snow storms were hoping for. Looking back winters like 1993/1994, 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 are fools gold. They're anomalies that defy the odds. Now were always thinking we can score like we did in those years from a favorable EPO with no other support from the other indices. Sure the occasional wave can work out but it's not supposed to occur as frequently as it did in 14 and 15 where almost everything broke perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: October 29, 2011 definitely made that winter less bad for me . One of my favorite alltime events. Hopefully this years April paste bomb will make this winter less bad. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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