Weather Will Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I do notice more ridging over Alaska this run late next week on WB EURO 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 another horrific storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: another horrific storm track Could that transfer to the coast? I guess if it could, it would have to be earlier to benefit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: another horrific storm track Actually, the low was centered over WV last run. Track not set in stone yet. Let’s see what EPS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Wonderdog said: Could that transfer to the coast? I guess if it could, it would have to be earlier to benefit us. There is nothing to make that happen... there is no blocking and the trough axis is way too far west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Could that transfer to the coast? I guess if it could, it would have to be earlier to benefit us. whats going to transfer it to the coast? Our non 50/50 low or our super postive nao? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ji said: you mean this? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: another horrific storm track I honestly thought that one had a chance, lol. How stupid of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is nothing to make that happen... there is no blocking and the trough axis is way too far west. I'm headed to snowshoe next Friday. Do you think this event can be salvaged up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: whats going to transfer it to the coast? Our non 50/50 low or our super postive nao? Atlantic side is awful. Need to get the ridge out west a bit further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I think we need to hope for more ridging in the West so that the trough is deeper in the East. That would shift the storm track further SE. I am not saying that is going to happen, but the EURO at 12Z did shift the storm track further south this run compared to 0z attached in response to more ridging over Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 if we can this this ridge to push North---that would be a pretty good -EPO and allow for some drainage of cold air. It would put us in the game of PSU lucky window 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Ji said: if we can this this ridge to push North---that would be a pretty good -EPO and allow for some drainage of cold air. It would put us in the game of PSU lucky window The op euro is doing what the 18z GFS yesterday (to a lesser extent) did. That wave in the PAC is actually displacing the TPV off the pole and seriously impacting the HL pattern. That would work. But the problem is the vast majority of guidance is trending away from that. But I suppose it is far enough out...and coming during a period where this is "some" mjo phase 2 forcing, that MAYBE we get a temporary TPV disruption. Perhaps I am discounting that possibility too much. If so that would set up a more than "needs crazy good luck" period. I still doubt it would last long but we take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: if we can this this ridge to push North---that would be a pretty good -EPO and allow for some drainage of cold air. It would put us in the game of PSU lucky window If that S AK ridge moves into the HL and links up with the se ridge to go full lat it will be early spring. I see more ways to fail with that look than to score tbh. Not saying we cant reverse the curse and get one hit before its over but the clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The op euro is doing what the 18z GFS yesterday (to a lesser extent) did. That wave in the PAC is actually displacing the TPV off the pole and seriously impacting the HL pattern. That would work. But the problem is the vast majority of guidance is trending away from that. But I suppose it is far enough out...and coming during a period where this is "some" mjo phase 2 forcing, that MAYBE we get a temporary TPV disruption. Perhaps I am discounting that possibility too much. If so that would set up a more than "needs crazy good luck" period. I still doubt it would last long but we take what we can get. If that ridge heads into central Canada and connects with the se ridge with the MJO going 5-6 we are going to be talking record high temps before talking snow chances. I can see this heading towards a frustratingly close mid to late Feb with arctic air lingering very close to the N and W but anomalous warmth via the se ridge in our area. It's just one of those seasons. You highlighted it well with the analogues of the Jan pattern and the history of looks going forward the rest of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Weather isn't that simple. It's like the stock market. Endless possibilities and chaos rule but we have "tools to make sense out of it" so we try... and try... and try. The real fun starts when we're panicking because a Nina is building and then 95-96 walks in the door again and suddenly Nina's are AWESOME... until the next one. Nah one nina coming in and doing that doesn't make Nina's awesome--especially given the highly anomalous set of circumstances that led to that one. No nina before that one or since has ever done anything remotely close...so logic says: Nina's=snow chances practically over before winter starts, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12z EPS snow probs are bad thru Day 9....I will post Oz EPS in am. Not worth posting anything else until EURO on board. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The op euro is doing what the 18z GFS yesterday (to a lesser extent) did. That wave in the PAC is actually displacing the TPV off the pole and seriously impacting the HL pattern. That would work. But the problem is the vast majority of guidance is trending away from that. But I suppose it is far enough out...and coming during a period where this is "some" mjo phase 2 forcing, that MAYBE we get a temporary TPV disruption. Perhaps I am discounting that possibility too much. If so that would set up a more than "needs crazy good luck" period. I still doubt it would last long but we take what we can get. But when talking about one threat...lasting just long enough would be all we'd need, lol At this point, I ain't even gonna waste time thinking about anything favorable setting up for longer than a few days...And since we seem to be in this pattern of getting a storm every weekend, if we can get one, just ONE of those weekends with a tiny window, maybe we can try our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: 12z EPS snow probs are bad thru Day 9....I will post Oz EPS in am. Not worth posting anything else until EURO on board. So then why did you post this? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12z EPS snow probs are bad thru Day 9....I will post Oz EPS in am. Not worth posting anything else until EURO on board. These maps are so worthless. Tomorrow we will be in the yellow or orange and then it will flip to almost nothing again. We could be in the red and it wouldn't mean anything. Teleconnections this winter are garbage. Until that changes, only a fluke storm would bring us any snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I am posting accurate information. It is bad, but not surprising. If you don’t care what the EPS indicates our snow chances are over the next 9 days don’t look at it. But don’t blame the messenger. Interesting in these times that individuals go on the attack when they don’t see or hear what they perceive as the perfect response. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Deep breath everyone. I think at this point if we could even manage to be just a one hit wonder, every last one of us (well except a select few - you know who you are) would be super happy to take it and run into spring. I mean our snowiest month is just about upon us. March seems to always be cold AF these days too. I’d put money down to say we score something decent at some point. Until then, just laugh off winter to date, roll with the punches, and find other ways to bring a smile to your face.... ......opens fridge door to find enough craft beer to supply a small army of dancing tomatoes. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 the eps snow ensemble mean is something that i would expect to see in September 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the eps snow ensemble mean is something that i would expect to see in September Let’s hope it’s as right now as it is when it looks good Ghost of WinterWxLuvr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: the eps snow ensemble mean is something that i would expect to see in September 12z eps was a train wreck run. Nothing good about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I planned a more in depth post after the 12z runs finished but I will probably be too busy later so i will just dump my thoughts now. There might still be a window where something is "possible" in the week 2 period but the season long pattern flaws of the +EPO/AO/NAO will continue. A very transient wave through the PAC NW ejects some cold into the CONUS though...and there are some signs a second wave could do the same, but any hopes of those 2 waves effecting a real change on the NAM state are pretty much dead. At range those 2 waves were severely weakening the PV...but the trend away from that has been steady and now neither of those waves even really makes much of a dent. They do at the least deliver some cold. But the trough axis is going to be too far west. To get anything to work it will take luck with taking up waves like the op GFS does. The best way would be to get a series of waves where the first wave draws a front through and a second wave follows close behind. We have lucked out way to some snow in a bad pattern that way before, but its going to take luck and not be something we can track from day 10. After that I have a feeling things get ugly again. It's easy to see where the MJO is heading... another high amplitude cycle through 4/5/6/7 is likely on the way. 7 is also a warm phase in Feb/Mar so we would have to wait until it gets through that whole rotation again to have a chance at a meaningful pattern flip. The feedback from those phases is likely to pull the pacific ridge back and pump the SE ridge in the kind of gradient TNH pattern we are looking at. I suspect this February will end up looking a lot like last February...except with a raging positive NAO instead of a neutral one. The timing of that next MJO rotation takes us into very late February or more likely March. If, and I have no confidence in this, the PV is more vulnerable at that time...that would be the next window to get a meaningful pattern change. Just in time to get 45 degree rain all spring. Very doomsday-esque, and well explained. MJO rotation through all the phases will take way too long. SE ridge is rearing its ugly head. If we finish with <1” at dca it will go down as a major ratter. Tough pill to swallow considering how long we have to wait till December 2020. 1 hour ago, Ji said: whats going to transfer it to the coast? Our non 50/50 low or our super postive nao? Lol, I think we’ve seen every permutation of orange and blue this winter EXECPT the one combination that would produce snow. It’s like it’s trying NOT to snow. I blame all of the negativity on this board. The snow can hear us people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12z eps was a train wreck run. Nothing good about it. Hopefully the eps bias of too much se ridge too much western trough comes into play lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 The day 8/11 analog packages show what were up against. Only one significant snow event in all the analogs. Feb 67 which was one of the weirdest fluky storms of all the KU storms. So yea that could always happen but in general it’s not a winning look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The day 8/11 analog packages show what were up against. Only one significant snow event in all the analogs. Feb 67 which was one of the weirdest fluky storms of all the KU storms. So yea that could always happen but in general it’s not a winning look. Of course everything happened in the 60s to make it snow...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 The day 8/11 analog packages show what were up against. Only one significant snow event in all the analogs. Feb 67 which was one of the weirdest fluky storms of all the KU storms. So yea that could always happen but in general it’s not a winning look. We need to look for ways we can score in this bad pattern. Your earlier post gave some hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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