Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[jaydreb]

Wow, that AO is almost off the charts!  

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Have had quite a few that have worked out over the last few years but you are always so busy whining you never take note.
eta: What exactly do you think the model discussion thread is about? It's about discussing the models and what they show as well as the possibilities. What it isn't, is your own private playground to whine and stomp your feet in as well as harassing others just because you don't get your snow. I think what irks me the most is that you are knowledgeable and you have been at this game for so many years that you should know better. And yet you are in here year after year putting even the rawest weenie to shame with your antics.

Lol I wasnt attacking you. I actually learn alot from you but weve had one snowstorm since 2016 so I am not sure what's worked out. What you usually present is far fetched scenarios that go agsinst models so it's an uphill battle...hence my statement about one day you will beat the models

Fair enough. I read it as an attack and for that I apologize. Guess this winter is getting to me as well. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

SE ridge my be back. Been seeing hints of it last few model cycles on GFS and euro has more pronounced boundary setting by up to our west then the GFS...Not a good look attm 

I am not overly enamored with what the EPS has to offer at this time as well. But it is a look that can potentially work. We really won't know what we have though until we get much closer in time and the smoothing decreases enough where we can start seeing the finer details/smaller scale features.

[PivotPoint]

21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I am not overly enamored with what the EPS has to offer at this time as well. But it is a look that can potentially work. We really won't know what we have though until we get much closer in time and the smoothing decreases enough where we can start seeing the finer details/smaller scale features.

Very true. That’s the tough part dealing with smoothed averages, it’s only really useful to see (generally) if we MIGHT be on the right side of things. Even then it’s a total guessing game lol.

This is a frame from 0z Euro. Not a horrible overall setup. A couple things break our way and this looks even better

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Very true. That’s the tough part dealing with smoothed averages, it’s only really useful to see (generally) if we MIGHT be on the right side of things. Even then it’s a total guessing game lol.

This is a frame from 0z Euro. Not a horrible overall setup. A couple things break our way and this looks even better

Get that 996 Low out of there

[Jrlg1181]

Solid area of snowshowers south of Afton along the parkway toward Wintergreen...

[PivotPoint]

9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Get that 996 Low out of there

Yea, it’s not helping there that’s for sho

[Ralph Wiggum]

52 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Very true. That’s the tough part dealing with smoothed averages, it’s only really useful to see (generally) if we MIGHT be on the right side of things. Even then it’s a total guessing game lol.

This is a frame from 0z Euro. Not a horrible overall setup. A couple things break our way and this looks even better

ICON supports this run ^^ but I'm sure the GFS will come along and draw people into thinking there is a chance with raging ++AO and ++NAO. Next winter can only be better, cant be worse right? I mean, seriously we have hit rock bottom right? I think we all need a group hug....or group therapy. Either will suffice.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON supports this run ^^ but I'm sure the GFS will come along and draw people into thinking there is a chance with raging ++AO and ++NAO. Next winter can only be better, cant be worse right? I mean, seriously we have hit rock bottom right? I think we all need a group hug....or group therapy. Either will suffice.

I hope not...I guess the only way it can be worse is if we draw a bad enso state (that is, la nina or a super nino). And it's a shame...I had a little more hope for next week...but now the models are trying to show cutter. If they were to lock into this solution, that would be yet another kick in the nads (and we're still crawling from the last one, lol)

[Bob Chill]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hope not...I guess the only way it can be worse is if we draw a bad enso state (that is, la nina or a super nino). And it's a shame...I had a little more hope for next week...but now the models are trying to show cutter. If they were to lock into this solution, that would be yet another kick in the nads (and we're still crawling from the last one, lol)

Weather isn't that simple. It's like the stock market. Endless possibilities and chaos rule but we have "tools to make sense out of it" so we try... and try... and try. The real fun starts when we're panicking because a Nina is building and then 95-96 walks in the door again and suddenly Nina's are AWESOME... until the next one. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS for next Friday/early Sat.  I know only one ops run but it is under Day 9.  Let’s see if there will GEFS support or support from the King EURO and Prince Canada.

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS for next Friday/early Sat.  I know only one ops run but it is under Day 9.  Let’s see if there will GEFS support or support from the King EURO and Prince Canada.

I know where Ji lives 

[clskinsfan]

12Z CMC is basically a disastrous run. Fire up the Panic Room.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

12Z CMC is basically a disastrous run. Fire up the Panic Room.

But it’s also a disastrous model IMO, verification be damned. I don’t think I’ve ever seen it correct as far as the weather outside my window is concerned.

Ghost of WinterWxLuvr 

[Chris78]

It really amazes me how good the euro is. Sure it can have  big swings the further you go out in time like all models do but once you get to that 4 to 5 day timeframe its generally pretty right. All other models will be against it and they all eventually adjust towards the euro. Not always but in general they all do.

Ive learned over the years not to fully get on board with an event if the euros not feeling it.

[WinterWxLuvr]

We should start a thread and keep track of the actual number of clippers that affect this region. I swear that have gone the way of the dinosaurs.

Ghost of WinterWxLuvr 

[osfan24]

I've had suspicions it's over but held out for the NAO flip. I guess it could still happen and it's crazy to say this since it isn't even February yet, but I think it's over. I'm just big-game hunting now. Hoping we fluke into a -NAO and get something well-timed and get a big storm. Otherwise, just get me out of this mid 40's crap and give me 60.

[Weather Will]

12Z WB CAN....seems like there is some sorting out to do for the end of next week still....maybe the King will set the other models straight once again.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS for next weekend.  About 30 percent are acceptable.

[Ralph Wiggum]

26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

12Z CMC is basically a disastrous run. Fire up the Panic Room.

I heard the weenies misread your post and have set fire to the Panic Room. Honest misinterpretation I suppose 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Weather isn't that simple. It's like the stock market. Endless possibilities and chaos rule but we have "tools to make sense out of it" so we try... and try... and try. The real fun starts when we're panicking because a Nina is building and then 95-96 walks in the door again and suddenly Nina's are AWESOME... until the next one. 

95-96 kinda makes sense in hindsight... It came during the period following a solar minimum where the NAO was biased negative for several years.  Very favorable QBO.   It wasnt a particularly strong nina and it was following a nino so there was probably some mixed signals wrt enso.   A few years ago (when we were starting down a nina) I looked at snowfall results in all Nina years and I found that when the NAO is actually negative in a nina our snow results can be ok.  The issue is that the pacific forcing in a nina favors a positive NAO and so MOST Nina years have a predominantly positive AO/NAO.   But if we ever get the combination of a weak/moderate nina where all other factors (solar/QBO/previous enso state) strongly favor blocking to overcome the enso we could get another 1996.  It actually wouldn't shock me if something like that happened in the next few years...provided the nina isnt strong enough to overpower the other influences.  

[87storms]

23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We should start a thread and keep track of the actual number of clippers that affect this region. I swear that have gone the way of the dinosaurs.

Ghost of WinterWxLuvr 

that's just the product of the milder pattern and not having any kind of blocking to nudge those systems into the Midwest/plains.  this winter is a dud so far and the reason i'm saying that is because there's been almost no digital snow within 5 days to track.  that's a sure sign of it being simply too warm/not enough blocking.  still 1.5 months left of legitimate snowable climo, but it ain't gonna snow if it ain't cold enough lol.

[Quasievil]

 

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z WB CAN....seems like there is some sorting out to do for the end of next week still....maybe the King will set the other models straight once again,

The LOW sitting over the Great Lakes on the CMC is all we need to know about next week right now. Truly turrible. To be fair, the GFS has a low about 250 miles off the coast of Maryland whereas the GEM has it sitting over Kentucky, same time frame. Guess it ain't over but it ain't good.

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB GEFS 12Z chance of 3 inches or more thru Day 16.

[psuhoffman]

I planned a more in depth post after the 12z runs finished but I will probably be too busy later so i will just dump my thoughts now.  There might still be a window where something is "possible" in the week 2 period but the season long pattern flaws of the +EPO/AO/NAO will continue.  A very transient wave through the PAC NW ejects some cold into the CONUS though...and there are some signs a second wave could do the same, but any hopes of those 2 waves effecting a real change on the NAM state are pretty much dead.  At range those 2 waves were severely weakening the PV...but the trend away from that has been steady and now neither of those waves even really makes much of a dent.  They do at the least deliver some cold.  But the trough axis is going to be too far west.  To get anything to work it will take luck with taking up waves like the op GFS does.  The best way would be to get a series of waves where the first wave draws a front through and a second wave follows close behind.  We have lucked out way to some snow in a bad pattern that way before, but its going to take luck and not be something we can track from day 10.  

After that I have a feeling things get ugly again.  It's easy to see where the MJO is heading...

  another high amplitude cycle through 4/5/6/7 is likely on the way.  7 is also a warm phase in Feb/Mar so we would have to wait until it gets through that whole rotation again to have a chance at a meaningful pattern flip.  The feedback from those phases is likely to pull the pacific ridge back and  pump the SE ridge in the kind of gradient TNH pattern we are looking at.  I suspect this February will end up looking a lot like last February...except with a raging positive NAO instead of a neutral one.    The timing of that next MJO rotation takes us into very late February or more likely March.   If, and I have no confidence in this, the PV is more vulnerable at that time...that would be the next window to get a meaningful pattern change.  Just in time to get 45 degree rain all spring.  

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We should start a thread and keep track of the actual number of clippers that affect this region. I swear that have gone the way of the dinosaurs.

Ghost of WinterWxLuvr 

I was just wondering about that earlier. I feel like we have not seen a clipper in years! 

[Ji]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I planned a more in depth post after the 12z runs finished but I will probably be too busy later so i will just dump my thoughts now.  There might still be a window where something is "possible" in the week 2 period but the season long pattern flaws of the +EPO/AO/NAO will continue.  A very transient wave through the PAC NW ejects some cold into the CONUS though...and there are some signs a second wave could do the same, but any hopes of those 2 waves effecting a real change on the NAM state are pretty much dead.  At range those 2 waves were severely weakening the PV...but the trend away from that has been steady and now neither of those waves even really makes much of a dent.  They do at the least deliver some cold.  But the trough axis is going to be too far west.  To get anything to work it will take luck with taking up waves like the op GFS does.  The best way would be to get a series of waves where the first wave draws a front through and a second wave follows close behind.  We have lucked out way to some snow in a bad pattern that way before, but its going to take luck and not be something we can track from day 10.  

After that I have a feeling things get ugly again.  It's easy to see where the MJO is heading...

u

  another high amplitude cycle through 4/5/6/7 is likely on the way.  7 is also a warm phase in Feb/Mar so we would have to wait until it gets through that whole rotation again to have a chance at a meaningful pattern flip.  The feedback from those phases is likely to pull the pacific ridge back and  pump the SE ridge in the kind of gradient TNH pattern we are looking at.  I suspect this February will end up looking a lot like last February...except with a raging positive NAO instead of a neutral one.    The timing of that next MJO rotation takes us into very late February or more likely March.   If, and I have no confidence in this, the PV is more vulnerable at that time...that would be the next window to get a meaningful pattern change.  Just in time to get 45 degree rain all spring.  

its truly amazing how clean phase 8 through phase 3 is on that chart. ive never seen anything like it

[stormtracker]

Don't you all love the little cute 999 low the Euro has on the NC Coast in a spot that would normally be great for us?   That tight precip shield just warms the heart. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Don't you all love the little cute 999 low the Euro has on the NC Coast in a spot that would normally be great for us?   That tight precip shield just warms the heart. 

you mean this? 

[psuhoffman]

@stormtracker The STJ wave has no mid or upper level support to wrap up, and also there is no high pressure to create a resistant flow to the southerly flow around the low or enough real cold air to create WAA lift. That inhibits a healthy precipitation shield.  Without that the southerly flow simply displaces the air in the way.  There is on real cold or resistant flow around a high to create the "lift" needed to get precip.