WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Amped said: It's where 95% of the board lives. Also the euro is further south with the ULL than other models and the EPS. So it is a little on it's own. Oh I don’t disagree that it’s out there. But it’s not on an island either. But still, you have to realize the we all look at weather in our own backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This isn’t one of those times when a model is completely on its own. The CMC, the JMA, the ICON all have somewhat of a similar evolution. That’s what I’ve been thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Bob is there a table like that for Winchester or maybe Hagerstown? Any location out this way? OKV has 8 members showing more than 2". Half of those support the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Amped said: It's where 95% of the board lives. Also the euro is further south with the ULL than other models and the EPS. So it is a little on it's own. Whatever model gives us the least snow is ussually right. The euro was the first to degrade the look for yesterday and all other models followed then. Im sure the euro will trend to the gfs this time lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Look at that date Ji...20th anniversary of One of the most memorable events in weenie history...1-2 inches was revised to 1-2 feet overnight. Dogs and cats living together...mayhem Boy that’s not far away from a nice look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I just check the eps control... it actually has the storm. Comes right out of the SW and bumps against confluence/sprawling hp to the north. EPS is onto something me thinks. Hopefully in 5 days it becomes real. Dude that's 12 days out lol...eps screwed up the pattern 5 days out...hard to trust with storm 12 days out. Right now the euo gives me 6 next Sunday. That's what I'm tracking....till 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: Dude that's 12 days out lol...eps screwed up the pattern 5 days out...hard to trust with storm 12 days out. Right now the euo gives me 6 next Sunday. That's what I'm tracking....till 00z It's the first time I've seen some sort of agreement for a specific window in a looooong time. EPS can be pretty good at picking miller A's at long range. We all know d10+ is unstable AF. We'll see how it evolves over the next 5 days. Miller As can be long tracked. We just don't get them often enough to remember anything about them. Not saying I believe a damn thing but what else are we going to do? Track a storm with roasting 850 temps and stale rotten air that wasn't even cold to begin with? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 @ji This is d11. Tell me this is not at least intriguing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 @Ji how about this one? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's the first time I've seen some sort of agreement for a specific window in a looooong time. EPS can be pretty good at picking miller A's at long range. We all know d10+ is unstable AF. We'll see how it evolves over the next 5 days. Miller As can be long tracked. We just don't get them often enough to remember anything about them. Not saying I believe a damn thing but what else are we going to do? Track a storm with roasting 850 temps and stale rotten air that wasn't even cold to begin with? Hey, for me, I'll take it whichever day we get it...as long as we get that every 3-4 year footer, lol But if it were to happen on the weekend thing through some wonky storm creating it's own cold air? Now THAT would be even more epic, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 How about we just do both. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey, for me, I'll take it whichever day we get it...as long as we get that every 3-4 year footer, lol But if it were to happen on the weekend thing through some wonky storm creating it's own cold air? Now THAT would be even more epic, lol While epic looks have degraded, we still are in peak climo and we can do it in less than stellar looks. Something to think about as we wait for the next unicorn to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Missed all the model discussion fun today. But didn't see the day 7 Ukmet posted . Looks to get wraparound into Md . Could be frozen . You didn’t miss anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 56 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Boy that’s not far away from a nice look. Guidance/ens members with near perfect track all have one thing in common....lack of cold air source. Everything is bottled in Canada. We dont do well holding out hope for storms to "manufacture their own cold air pool". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji how about this one? Dryslot is unavoidable. Back edge is creeping in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 So Ji is being optimistic and Bob Chill is being pessimistic (sorry Bob, I get it) and no one notes it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Guidance/ens members with near perfect track all have one thing in common....lack of cold air source. Everything is bottled in Canada. We dont do well holding out hope for storms to "manufacture their own cold air pool". But the look above that I liked showed 500 LP close enough to raise eyebrow. Yes we don’t typically, but if we were going to make some cold...climo says nows the time. That’s my point. Stack that 500 low and it will make its own cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, frostbite_falls said: So Ji is being optimistic and Bob Chill is being pessimistic (sorry Bob, I get it) and no one notes it? Go figure, world is upside down tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Go figure, world is upside down tonight Reverse psychology at its “finest” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 What did 18z euro surface show at 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What did 18z euro surface show at 120 hours Only goes out to 90, 18z eps wasn't as juicy as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Westendsnowguy said: Only goes out to 90 Oh I thought 120. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What did 18z euro surface show at 120 hours 18z eps goes out to 144. You won't like it. Worse than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 53 minutes ago, frostbite_falls said: So Ji is being optimistic and Bob Chill is being pessimistic (sorry Bob, I get it) and no one notes it? I'm not a pessimist about next weekend... just a realist. Lol 12z eps actually made me a little optimistic. Getting a Miller A or clean coastal would fix a lot of things around here. Very early stages of discussing it and obviously the odds are against us but coastals like this can get picked up at long leads much better than anything northern stream driven. By Wed we'll know if it's legit or a phantom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z eps goes out to 144. You won't like it. Worse than 12z I’m gonna go with this is a complicated setup that the lower res ens members are gonna struggle with. Trust the op. Can I get a weenie? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Check out some of these analogs... there were some big storms in 83 and 61. 1960 had a big snow that hit Houston to Cleveland. Jan 2000 is almost in there too. Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Gfs made a move towards the euro. Still not there for us but gets snow into central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Yeah, it actually did make a move toward the Euro. But that's probably going to be the final position, with our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Gfs made a move towards the euro. Still not there for us but gets snow into central pa. Yep, gonna be an active week tracking, GFS showing signs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 This thing is crazy. Anybody check out the progression on the ICON? Ever see a low go from East TN to Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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