Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Next week looks like a headache. Really warm to start is looking like a pretty strong bet. Then there's a system(or some combination of systems) that cuts along the cold boundary, well to our west. Then at least some of that cold air gets in here by later in the week but how much and whether there will be storms/tracks that cooperate are a huge bleh. Every piece except one is there for our gradient/boundary look......AO or NAO help to force cold south to press against the se ridge. Without that the se ridge flexes and the boundary is n and w. Not sure a strong -EPO can counter that. Not going to sugarcoat, but I'm pretty sure by the look the se ridge is going to win and force the boundary N. Of course that isnt a lock... just how things look across the ens means right now. Even a transient NAO during the gradient would work if timed properly with a stj wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Every piece except one is there for our gradient/boundary look......AO or NAO help to force cold south to press against the se ridge. Without that the se ridge flexes and the boundary is n and w. Not sure a strong -EPO can counter that. Not going to sugarcoat, but I'm pretty sure by the look the se ridge is going to win and force the boundary N. Of course that isnt a lock... just how things look across the ens means right now. Even a transient NAO during the gradient would work if timed properly with a stj wave. maybe this is our Heather A--A NAO block breaking down before a big storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, frd said: The move into phase 6 on some models despite a growing sub seasonal signal in the central Pac. , which is interesting . Not sure what Ventrice is alluding to with his idea of a very strong MJO event developing later in Feb. Of course he did not state where that phase might target. On a side note, not liking the possible new trend regarding the AO. Last couple days seems more consensus on it going higher versus previously was more neutral. Some models give the vortex a hit soon, but it recovers shortly thereafter. Maybe that is being reflected in the numbers, although the time frame does not really match. We'll have a brief opportunity for possibly a little accumulation the second week of February, but besides that I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: maybe this is our Heather A--A NAO block breaking down before a big storm lol The -PNA has ruled this winter. Setting up again long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 WB EPS 12Z says don’t hold your breadth for any snow... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: The -PNA has ruled this winter. Setting up again long range. That has at least some gradient potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That has at least some gradient potential. Except the gradient is in western PA, not over us. If the SE ridge takes hold in mid-February, our goose is cooked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Except the gradient is in western PA, not over us. If the SE ridge takes hold in mid-February, our goose is cooked. Right. But I don’t want to just flush all hope down the toilet. The gradient is not in western Indiana so who knows. That goose has been ready to be taken out today the oven for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This run the GFS consolidates too much of the energy along the front into the lead wave...and that positions the trough too N/S vs E/W and makes it really hard for the follow up wave to develop...the timing also sucks as the next NS wave that COULD phase and develop a storm is too far behind. The potential is there it just misses the moving parts coming together right. Then we get the waves but they all manage to go just north of us...which is the risk in that pattern. Exactly. Well put and exactly what I was getting at irt the timing isn’t quite there for the phase. If that lead wave could make a turn as opposed to progressive (as depicted) it could slow the NS down enough to allow or trough time to dig and phase. Then I think the boundary is ripe for a track that hits the mid Atlantic. All speculation yada yada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 At least the look at the end of the eps would get cold air near to us. That’s about all I can say positive. The issues continue. No sign of a AO or NAO flip and pac ridge continues to be centered southwest of where we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: At least the look at the end of the eps would get cold air near to us. That’s about all I can say positive. The issues continue. No sign of a AO or NAO flip and pac ridge continues to be centered southwest of where we need it. Despair... but my wag for the season is we get some type of transient WC ridge that gives us an overrunning something wound up rain/snow/rain deal. Just don’t think the blocking is there and cold air source keeps getting dumped into western states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 WB 12K NAM....Won't amount to much but some mood flakes early Sat. could not hurt if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 get the EPO a bit more east...and we are on the right side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12K NAM....Won't amount to much but some mood flakes early Sat. could not hurt if it verifies. Start a thread. We need some good juju. I think you’ve got it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Ji said: get the EPO a bit more east...and we are on the right side Lol. “Justttttttt a bit outside” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 did anyone comment on the EPS weeklies from Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, PivotPoint said: Lol. “Justttttttt a bit outside” looks like we are right at zero lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Except the gradient is in western PA, not over us. If the SE ridge takes hold in mid-February, our goose is cooked. A SE ridge is fine tbh and is one of the ways we avoid suppression in certain patterns. But in a gradient flow without any HL block the SE Ridge will pump heights too far N and W. And right now it looks as if we will only see transient weak ridging up top, but who knows. The ens have flipped on a dime before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: did anyone comment on the EPS weeklies from Monday? They were pretty much a carbon copy of the last run. They continue what that day 15 look is into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 They were pretty much a carbon copy of the last run. They continue what that day 15 look is into March. Sorry what was the last run? Ridge in east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They were pretty much a carbon copy of the last run. They continue what that day 15 look is into March. Sorry what was the last run? Ridge in east? Weeks 3/4/5/6 32 day temps starting day 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Ugh they posted out of order. But who cares they are all the same 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Ugh they posted out of order. But who cares they are all the same Well it's not a shutout look but we will prob get shutout 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh they posted out of order. But who cares they are all the same Well it's not a shutout look but we will prob get shutout Redskiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I mean its obvious its not going to snow this year but we cant even get something legit to track outside of 9 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Ji said: I mean its obvious its not going to snow this year but we cant even get something legit to track outside of 9 days Winter showed its hand weeks ago. The advertised look in the LR is mostly more of the same. Maybe we luck into something, but the likelihood of a notable pattern flip before it's too late is probably low. Pretty confident we will see a -NAO death block for April and May though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Ji said: I mean its obvious its not going to snow this year but we cant even get something legit to track outside of 9 days It's not a bad look on the GFS for next weekend I don't think...aside from the verbatim solution on an OP 9-10 days out, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ji said: 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh they posted out of order. But who cares they are all the same Well it's not a shutout look but we will prob get shutout You trying to convince me? I was the one who “cancelled” winter a month ago remember? That look opens the door to possibilities but we would need help. It could work with a string of waves or timing. Anything spaced that ams will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Winter showed its hand weeks ago. The advertised look in the LR is mostly more of the same. Maybe we luck into something, but the likelihood of a notable pattern flip before it's too late is probably low. Pretty confident we will see a -NAO death block for April and May though. So like...is everybody just completely baffled about this NAO no longer being negative in the winter? Has anybody offered any actual explanation? And agreed...we may have to get something in a tiny passing window. (To me, next weekend would be the chance for that...at least we got a LITTLE more cold air to work with...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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