showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS has rain here, at NIGHT on Saturday, with 850’s well below freezing and the surface a couple of degrees above. Call me crazy but that ain’t rain. Looking at the sounding for around Winchester there is a good reason it is showing rain. It shows above freezing temps from 875 MB down to the surface. Might get some snow flakes mixed in on heavier bursts but that is pretty much a rain sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 @showmethesnow What do you think of the possibility of secondary coastal developments in response to the NS energy? It's been trending that way in the upper levels but 12z was the first real hints of that possibility at the surface. Maybe there is still enough lead time to get the adjustments we would need for that scenario...the lead wave idea is pretty much deal imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This new development bears watching...that lead wave is pretty much a non starter. Too much working against it... not very strong, no cold air to aid in WAA....you can't get good WAA precip without cold to "resist" the WAA and cause the lift...way out ahead of the NS trough. But the NS energy has been sneakily trending better and if it were somehow to pop a redevelopment that could suddenly become a player. Right now we are stuck in between 2 good options...and with our luck that is where we end up, but this is the first time guidance has really picked up on this new option. I think the idea of popping a little trailing wave associated with the upper level energy has more potential. Still not a good bet...but its worth keeping an eye on. Been keeping an eye out for this possibility as well. Really will depend on what we see with the initial coastal. Wouldn't hurt to see the trough at least nuetral as it enters the east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This new development bears watching...that lead wave is pretty much a non starter. Too much working against it... not very strong, no cold air to aid in WAA....you can't get good WAA precip without cold to "resist" the WAA and cause the lift...way out ahead of the NS trough. But the NS energy has been sneakily trending better and if it were somehow to pop a redevelopment that could suddenly become a player. Right now we are stuck in between 2 good options...and with our luck that is where we end up, but this is the first time guidance has really picked up on this new option. I think the idea of popping a little trailing wave associated with the upper level energy has more potential. Still not a good bet...but its worth keeping an eye on. Yeah that makes sense. I was reading the NE forum and they were mentioning it and had not looked at much today. It's amazing how the SS SW as basically been reduced to nothing of what it once was. Skip that front runner out east and allow the NS to dig into the trough and who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: @showmethesnow What do you think of the possibility of secondary coastal developments in response to the NS energy? It's been trending that way in the upper levels but 12z was the first real hints of that possibility at the surface. Maybe there is still enough lead time to get the adjustments we would need for that scenario...the lead wave idea is pretty much deal imo. Agree with you. I think the initial scenario is pretty much on life support at this time if not DOA. Just too much separation between the SS and NS at this time. But option B is starting to gain some steam with a secondary development. Still a lot of work to do with that though. Probably need more separation between the initial low and the dropping 500's. We need to see some energy left behind. And we need to see the trough, at worst, neutral as it enters the east. Otherwise a positively tilted/progressive trough will just shunt any secondary straight out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Agree with you. I think the initial scenario is pretty much on life support at this time if not DOA. Just too much separation between the SS and NS at this time. But option B is starting to gain some steam with a secondary development. Still a lot of work to do with that though. Probably need more separation between the initial low and the dropping 500's. We need to see some energy left behind. And we need to see the trough, at worst, neutral as it enters the east. Otherwise a positively tilted/progressive trough will just shunt any secondary straight out to sea. Wasn't the conversation yesterday about speeding up the NS about 6-12 hours...now we want it to slow down? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 OP at range and disclaimers aside, but run through HR 270-360 on the GFS. That is how 2014 would have looked had we not been south of boundary....IE: painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Wasn't the conversation yesterday about speeding up the NS about 6-12 hours...now we want it to slow down? well... technically either would be better...if it were to speed up it could phase with the initial STJ wave, if it slows down it could create enough space behind the STJ wave for a secondary development. It's about wave separation and right now the timing is no good...but right now its trending closer to the "slow down" option so that becomes our better bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 This is not a horrible look and is not wayyy out in fantasy land. It also lines up with period of ridging out west that waxes and wains. The system out in front of this one is a little too progressive. However, if that system cuts just a little bit harder I think we see a run or two coming soon that depicts a coastal in this time frame. All we need is a passing 50/50 or a little help up in the NAO space and a wave in this time period has moderate cold to work with and a potentially better spacing with a little ridge action to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, PivotPoint said: This is not a horrible look and is not wayyy out in fantasy land. It also lines up with period of ridging out west that waxes and wains. The system out in front of this one is a little too progressive. However, if that system cuts just a little bit harder I think we see a run or two coming soon that depicts a coastal in this time frame. All we need is a passing 50/50 or a little help up in the NAO space and a wave in this time period has moderate cold to work with and a potentially better spacing with a little ridge action to help This run the GFS consolidates too much of the energy along the front into the lead wave...and that positions the trough too N/S vs E/W and makes it really hard for the follow up wave to develop...the timing also sucks as the next NS wave that COULD phase and develop a storm is too far behind. The potential is there it just misses the moving parts coming together right. Then we get the waves but they all manage to go just north of us...which is the risk in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Wasn't the conversation yesterday about speeding up the NS about 6-12 hours...now we want it to slow down? You catch on quick. Decreasing the separation between the two isn't looking promising at this time. But with generally seeing an ever increasing deeper dig on recent runs with the NS this is allowing for more separation between the SS and NS which puts redevelopment on the table. So in other words, less separation and we have the possibility of a phase. More seperation and we have the chance of redevelopment. But of course we are stuck in the middle. eta: ninja'd by PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 48 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The MJO just hasn't cooperated this season The move into phase 6 on some models despite a growing sub seasonal signal in the central Pac. , which is interesting . Not sure what Ventrice is alluding to with his idea of a very strong MJO event developing later in Feb. Of course he did not state where that phase might target. On a side note, not liking the possible new trend regarding the AO. Last couple days seems more consensus on it going higher versus previously was more neutral. Some models give the vortex a hit soon, but it recovers shortly thereafter. Maybe that is being reflected in the numbers, although the time frame does not really match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This run the GFS consolidates too much of the energy along the front into the lead wave...and that positions the trough too N/S vs E/W and makes it really hard for the follow up wave to develop...the timing also sucks as the next NS wave that COULD phase and develop a storm is too far behind. The potential is there it just misses the moving parts coming together right. Then we get the waves but they all manage to go just north of us...which is the risk in that pattern. But overall...would you say this would be at least a slightly better scenario than what we have this week? (i.e. more cold air around) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Conversely, I'm not so sure that the new climate hasn't made storms that previously may have dropped a foot, now drop 14". There’s no doubt global warming has/could trim off some of our fringe snow events, but I also agree there could be more biggies (higher water vapor content, etc). I definitely don’t agree with other posts about our snow climate being like Raleigh’s. We’re more like Cincinnati. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Euro gets precip into the area on Friday from the coastal....mixy in a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 weird==pivotal has no precip and wxmodels has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 i think this screen shot sums up our winter--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: weird==pivotal has no precip and wxmodels has Meh, would it matter? That's drizzle or light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Euro looks.....interesting for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Be concerned about temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Euro looks.....interesting for next weekend. Next week’s tracking is going to be a replay of this past week. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Porsche said: Be concerned about temps. While it is obviously wayyyyyy too early to even think about temperature specifics on an op run...just the mere image of that kinda ticks ya off knowing this is the reality of THIS weekend, lol But for now...good to see the models picking up a storm for that time period...hopefully we have a better source of cold air that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Next week’s tracking is going to be a replay of this past week. Man I hope not....I mean I think we'd all be about ready to jump off a cliff! It would be crappy even by our standards to get two coastal two weeks in a row during prime climo to not produce. C'mon, we deserve for this next one to work out, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Man I hope not....I mean I think we'd all be about ready to jump off a cliff! It would be crappy even by our standards to get two coastal two weeks in a row during prime climo to not produce. C'mon, we deserve for this next one to work out, lol Well that 988 Low in the Midwest probably won’t help but way to far out to care. Not sure what we deserve but this is what we got. Just have to keep hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Ha, I think we all have the same thoughts. Things will change over the next week or so, but sure seems like just more of the same. Chance at a night storm track, but temps won't cooperate no matter how much we hope they will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Next week looks like a headache. Really warm to start is looking like a pretty strong bet. Then there's a system(or some combination of systems) that cuts along the cold boundary, well to our west. Then at least some of that cold air gets in here by later in the week but how much and whether there will be storms/tracks that cooperate are a huge bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 21 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Euro looks.....interesting for next weekend. Inland low means rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Man I hope not....I mean I think we'd all be about ready to jump off a cliff! It would be crappy even by our standards to get two coastal two weeks in a row during prime climo to not produce. C'mon, we deserve for this next one to work out, lol This weeks “coastal” also has precip problems, not just temps. Euro shows like .2” QPF through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Euro looks.....interesting for next weekend. It always does lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 It's 10 days away... stop worrying about exactly where the rain/snow line is. The GFS has that same storm suppressed south of us. You do realize that the areal coverage of significant snow in a synoptic system is relatively narrow on the larger scale and WAY within the margin or error with a day 10 run. In other words...to be close enough to have a chance to get the storm...we have to be close enough to the rain snow line that rain is a risk from that range. The GFS suppresses the whole thing south of us. The Euro would likely end up mostly rain. But both are within the envelope of a normal error at that range. What is more useful is analyzing the type of pattern. There is no blocking. So an over amped solution like the euro would risk a cut. But there will be more cold around next week than this week. And the trough looks to dig pretty far east so something in between the euro and the gfs would work...getting a phase slightly further east than the euro and we get a snowstorm. There is no way in hell the euro is going to stick the landing wrt the exact location of the low track from this range...so worrying about that is a total waste of time. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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