Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a cozy feeling seeing guidance almost completely lose the strong  -NAO being forecast for a while in the LR and replace it with a +NAO and SE ridge almost across the board.

Not shocked. It wasn’t the kind of wave that was likely to impact the PV much. And every attempt to dent it has been brushed aside with ease. I’m focused on how to get a progressive wave type deal. That’s all we can try to work with given we’re likely stuck with a raging +AO/NAO. Maybe March but honestly my gut says the NAO stays + straight through.  

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a cozy feeling seeing guidance almost completely lose the strong  -NAO being forecast for a while in the LR and replace it with a +NAO and SE ridge almost across the board.

We have 2 threats I see...a trailing wave after the cutter...or a west to east wave around day 11-13. But we would need it to stay progressive. Amplified systems would cut. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We have 2 threats I see...a trailing wave after the cutter...or a west to east wave around day 11-13. But we would need it to stay progressive. Amplified systems would cut. 

I've been curious about the first of the two...Now I'm not clear on the whole cutter setting up a transient 50/50 thing. Is this the kind of setup where that can happen?

[Scraff]

Good morning. Yes. I know it’s the 12k NAM, but what? 

[BristowWx]

Good morning.  I am also interested in the chance for mood flakes on Sunday.  I see the 6z spots out rain but the thickness at 534 may yield a surprise 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z NAM 

[Ji]

The eps snowfall mean got worse overnight. 2 inches for jyo.

[dailylurker]

37 minutes ago, Ji said:

The eps snowfall mean got worse overnight. 2 inches for jyo.

Next weeks cool shot looks like it took a dump also. Just more never ending November weather. I'm getting so sick of damp 40 degree mornings and 45-55 degree days.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Does guidance ever trend towards favorable looks any more in the MR/LR or is it perpetually lopsided where good looks tease us then flip towards crud? If we were inside of an epic winter would crud looks be repeatedly shown 10 days out then flip to epic? Just seems so common we are teased to have the.rug pulled out from under us....I just wonder if there is something to this or it's just frustration building in. 

[PhineasC]

30 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Next weeks cool shot looks like it took a dump also. Just more never ending November weather. I'm getting so sick of damp 40 degree mornings and 45-55 degree days.

Our climate is becoming like Raleigh, NC’s and we need to just accept that. I guess their climate is more like Augusta, GA and Augusta is more like Orlando or Tampa at this point. 

[anotherman]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Our climate is becoming like Raleigh, NC’s and we need to just accept that. I guess their climate is more like Augusta, GA and Augusta is more like Orlando or Tampa at this point. 

Very true.  I have been telling people I work with that this winter is like a winter in N. Carolina or Georgia.  Even though it's a reality, it's hard to accept.

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Our climate is becoming like Raleigh, NC’s and we need to just accept that. I guess their climate is more like Augusta, GA and Augusta is more like Orlando or Tampa at this point. 

I read that study several years ago how the climates are shifting north...was mostly about farming but yeah...seems like we skipped over Richmond and went straight to N.C...fast track to no more winter and only big storm hunting. Hooray bugs!!

[CAPE]

This region has mild winters in general. That is simply the base state. Always been that way. In order to increase chances for cold/snow it takes a specific set of anomalous atmospheric features, and we don't really have any of those boxes checked his winter, other than for very brief periods. A sustained +AO combined with an unfavorable Pac is usually a killer for snow in this area, esp low elevations. Its happening.

[dallen7908]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

The eps snowfall mean got worse overnight. 2 inches for jyo.

I've been quietly tracking the percent of EPS members giving DC and "PSUland" 3" (or more!) for the period ending at 00 UT on February 8th.  Here are the percentages for DC beginning with the 00 UT January 24th suite (360 hour forecast)  and ending with the 00 UT January 29th run (240 hour forecast)  (18,28,26,24,18,22, 24,18,16,10,14) and here are the percentages for far-northern central Maryland (34,46,30,38,28,28, 36,20,26,26,20).  So yes the percentages are decreasing a bit as we move closer in time to the period of interest.  Not sure if this is meaningful but is consistent with our winter so far. 

 

[Ji]

@psuhoffman

[Ji]

I've been quietly tracking the percent of EPS members giving DC and "PSUland" 3" (or more!) for the period ending at 00 UT on February 8th.  Here are the percentages for DC beginning with the 00 UT January 24th suite (360 hour forecast)  and ending with the 00 UT January 29th run (240 hour forecast)  (18,28,26,24,18,22, 24,18,16,10,14) and here are the percentages for far-northern central Maryland (34,46,30,38,28,28, 36,20,26,26,20).  So yes the percentages are decreasing a bit as we move closer in time to the period of interest.  Not sure if this is meaningful but is consistent with our winter so far. 

 

I wonder if we lost a bit from this weekend storm disaster

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This region has mild winters in general. That is simply the base state. Always been that way. In order to increase chances for cold/snow it takes a specific set of anomalous atmospheric features, and we don't really have any of those boxes checked his winter, other than for very brief periods. A sustained +AO combined with an unfavorable Pac is usually a killer for snow in this area, esp low elevations. Its happening.

Yup...I do think it’s undeniable that “bad” years are getting worse. DCs ability to eek its way to something like 8” in a crap year like this is being hurt by marginal events becoming harder and harder to work. The early Jan storm was an example where 30 years ago DC might have got 2” instead of .2. This weekend if some light precip does make it in maybe in the past DC adds another 1-2” but now it’s likely white rain. So I think what we’re already crap years are worse. 3” instead of 8”. 1” instead of 5”. And that sucks but is that really the big deal?   Would that many people be happy if DC ended up with 8” instead of 3”?  Likely the same people would be whining because by the standards of the past that 8” would be crappy. So long as our “good patterns” still produce that’s the most important thing. We just haven’t had any.  If we start to see good patterns not working anymore that’s when alarms will go off for me. It’s probably coming eventually but I don’t see that yet. 

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

 

@psuhoffman

 

aka   Just another Midwest snowstorm. 

Honestly, think about it , is there any indication that this winter's base state and indices really support this idea he has?

I don't need GFS snow maps, probabilities map, EPS mean snowfall mean, MJO etc.,  all I need is to simply look the AO and the PNA domains,  and they say no to snow. ( Don S research and stats back this up ) 

As mentioned a month ago, when these indices become favorable that is when we score a significant event,  until then, more of the same. More cutters, more transitional weather. More mild than cold. 

 

[dallen7908]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

I wonder if we lost a bit from this weekend storm disaster

 

Yes that explains a portion of the decrease, especially in far northern MD.  

[psuhoffman]

@Ji lol wow he is pulling out the last play he had left I guess. Thing is that wouldn’t end well. Given the trough axis if we did get a full phased bomb it would cut to Chicago. 

[frd]

 

@psuhoffman not sure you track this but this is interesting.  The Euro monthly now includes zonal winds at 60 and 10

 

[psuhoffman]

N@Ralph Wiggum I warned you about the NAO. When I researched for that really pessimistic post I made in early Jan that some got upset because it really crushed our hopes for this winter...I said we needed to see a base change flip by mid January or it was trouble. That’s because I found no examples of similar pacific patterns with this string of a AO/NAO combo for the whole month of January that flipped better in February. All the examples where the AO/NAO flipped for February the AK vortex +NAO pattern wasn’t as entrenched or as strong. All the good Feb examples showed signs of a flip up top by Jan 20th. At this point there is very little chance the AO or NAO improves before very late Feb or March and I’m skeptical it happens at all.  Things are following the progression those analogs indicated. 

What could chance is weakening the AK vortex and getting enough epo ridge to maybe give us a chance. That’s all I’m rooting for. Things are evolving to what I expected. A less crappy look where we could get lucky. But by no means a good look. 

AK cold can work but the issue is the shot is dumping west first and by the time it translates east it’s weak sauce. After that we need the epo to help some. Guidance keeps kicking the can on that and pulling it further west of where we need it. Unfortunately climo for this years pac and NAM base state is winning over long range guidance everytime. 

[frd]

 

@psuhoffman  awesome stuff if the research and conclusions are correct.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ChesterfieldVa80]

I didn't see any mention of last nights GEM. Is this model improving? The run at 00z showed some promise with regard to the weekend. 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

I wonder if we lost a bit from this weekend storm disaster

 

We also lost the handful of “crazy uncle” members that thought the cutter next week could be snow from day 9/10. 

[frd]

 

 

Here is the decent GloSea  5 data showing the next 45 days of zonal winds. Bottom line is the vortex does not weaken,  and hence most likely the NAM state remains unfavorable during Feb. and even March.  Certainly no SSWE this winter.  If you look at some models in the medium range you will see a dip in zonal winds but then they come back up. As stated previously this season, the vortex is very resilient and  recovers after attempts to weaken it. Either timing was off in wave 1 and 2 attempts or simply the delivery was not efficient. Bravo @Isotherm   

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

 

Here you can make your own conclusions,  but you can clearly see the impact of the jet stream , weekly mean ( wind speeds at 250 hPa ) and notice how it is oriented /magnitude early in 2019 and at the end of 2019.   

 

 

 

 

[Weather Will]

6z WB GEFS thru Day 16.  Unfortunately, like most of he winter it is beyond Day 10.

[Ralph Wiggum]

@psuhoffman agree with your reply above. It's just mind boggling how guidance jumps on such a potent -NAO block for several consecutive runs and not even la la land per se (under 10 days) then completely flip to a raging +NAO in one run and never look back. Rarely happens the other way right, lol?

Chances are still there, boundary/gradient pattern may setup so maybe we can stumble into something....not giving up just yet. I think I said Feb 10ish was my threshold if nothing is on the horizon.

On the bright side, if we dont see another flake this season, next year will almost (emphasis on almost) inevitably be better. Things can only go up...right? 

 

[pasnownut]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yup...I do think it’s undeniable that “bad” years are getting worse. DCs ability to eek its way to something like 8” in a crap year like this is being hurt by marginal events becoming harder and harder to work. The early Jan storm was an example where 30 years ago DC might have got 2” instead of .2. This weekend if some light precip does make it in maybe in the past DC adds another 1-2” but now it’s likely white rain. So I think what we’re already crap years are worse. 3” instead of 8”. 1” instead of 5”. And that sucks but is that really the big deal?   Would that many people be happy if DC ended up with 8” instead of 3”?  Likely the same people would be whining because by the standards of the past that 8” would be crappy. So long as our “good patterns” still produce that’s the most important thing. We just haven’t had any.  If we start to see good patterns not working anymore that’s when alarms will go off for me. It’s probably coming eventually but I don’t see that yet. 

Great points.  As you well know, a few good periods of winter have a way of spoiling and giving false sense of reality.  With all of the data available 4x daily, as soon as 1 run shows something good, by and large, we latch on and try to see how it can happen, while knowing odds are typically stacked against a couple good looking model runs in less than stellar patterns.  That said, we also know that we can luck our way into storms, as there are always unforseen variables that can offer pleasant surprises.  For me...thats why I'm here....the thrill of the chase.  

I just dont understand all of the whining when the reality is this is closer to normal, and not every year has to look like winter....no matter what the date on the calendar says.  it happens.  Get over it.