clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Sign me up Geez Hi res Euro is a Winchester beatdown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Now,,,, IF we can get through about 20 runs and all the models show a similar setup, then I'll get excited. Until then, one run of one suite with so many things that CAN go wrong. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Hi res Euro is a Winchester beatdown: Winchester is the winter king of VA. It’s the city all other cities wish to be. But can’t. You live a charmed life my friend. Only people in Lucketts can battle you for supremacy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I have a couple of questions: Now, Ji mentioned the Jan 2011 storm...now I remember that one went from rain to snow. Now why is it that rain-to-snow scenarios don't happen as often around here as the opposite? And also...was 2011 a case of a storm making it's own cold air? Usually, a rain to snow scenario involves a changing of direction in the winds, and when the winds shift to the NW, that will bring in the cold air but it also brings in dry air and shuts off the precip. A lot of our snow-to-rain scenarios involve an established cold air mass where the storm track doesn't necessarily matter, because the initial cold air is enough to overcome the initial push of warmer air. Eventually, the warm air wins out. This past weekend was like a very poor man's example of that, but had a bigger batch of precip and heavier precip been aimed in our direction, we could have done pretty well with that. Same thing can also happen with coastal systems if they are too close. We can begin as snow and then switch to sleet and even rain as the winds become too easterly/southeasterly. IIRC, 2011 was a strong upper level low that did create its own cold air. Once we got on the back side of it, we switched over to heavy snow. I love that storm. Just wish it had lasted longer. It really crushed some areas northeast of us. Talk about a heavy thump though, especially of very heavy, wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 When you get a slightly different algorithm, the amounts and location of the amounts shifts quite substantially. Well. For. People east of the Blue Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 35 minutes ago, psurulz said: The big ones are sniffed out early right? I believe the Euro had this coastal idea last week. I know the GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 It's early, but I think the GFS won't be looking like the Euro. If anything it's a little further north than its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 GFS shows rain up to Toronto. Edit: And then transfers to the coast to make sure NE gets some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's early, but I think the GFS won't be looking like the Euro. If anything it's a little further north than its previous run. The GFS is trying to play Dr. No this time, lol (but is it a little by itself with the transfer being further north?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: The GFS is trying to play Dr. No this time, lol (but is it a little by itself with the transfer being further north?) GFS will get in the right camp later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, Solution Man said: GFS will get in the right camp later Disagree....I bet the Euro jumps ship tonight. It's around that range now. And the fact there was zero support on the EPS is a no brainer where this is heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 3 hours ago, MD Snow said: ICON, GGEM, EURO, UKMET and now the JMA all with the coastal idea. Wouldn’t it be crazy if everyone checks out and we sneak one in? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Disagree....I bet the Euro jumps ship tonight. It's around that range now. And the fact there was zero support on the EPS is a no brainer where this is heading. Ralph you called it, let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Ralph you called it, let's see This could be the big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Disagree....I bet the Euro jumps ship tonight. It's around that range now. And the fact there was zero support on the EPS is a no brainer where this is heading. Hard to disagree with you. There was a couple members that looked similar to the OP but not many. There was support for snow further west and north through western PA and western MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 @nj2va Your place in deep creek might be the place to be next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 24 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Wouldn’t it be crazy if everyone checks out and we sneak one in? If that were to happen, I'd be kinda proud to say that I stayed checked in! (and mainly it's because of history, really...I mean sure, we could get our 3-4 year footer in sometime next month...but having it happen this way would be sweet, lol Does the trend continue?...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Not me If not this one then February could get very interesting with storms and rumors of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2020 Author Share Posted January 19, 2020 This isn’t one of those times when a model is completely on its own. The CMC, the JMA, the ICON all have somewhat of a similar evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 18z navgem 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? We dont need cold air....we had a foot of snow in 1988 or 89 with no cold air...temp never fell below 36 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This isn’t one of those times when a model is completely on its own. The CMC, the JMA, the ICON all have somewhat of a similar evolution. If any model gives us 2 feet of snow it's going to be the NAM because it's the dumbest model.. Euro isn't even a good setup for anyone east of 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2020 Author Share Posted January 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Amped said: If any model gives us 2 feet of snow it's going to be the NAM because it's the dumbest model.. Euro isn't even a good setup for anyone east of 81. Possibly all true. But you don’t think I’m really studying the weather East of I81 do you? LOL. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: 18z navgem Look at that date Ji...20th anniversary of One of the most memorable events in weenie history...1-2 inches was revised to 1-2 feet overnight. Dogs and cats living together...mayhem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ji said: We dont need cold air....we had a foot of snow in 1988 or 89 with no cold air...temp never fell below 36 I think I just check the eps control... it actually has the storm. Comes right out of the SW and bumps against confluence/sprawling hp to the north. EPS is onto something me thinks. Hopefully in 5 days it becomes real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I'm with WinterWxLuvr....who cares about east of 81 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? Bob is there a table like that for Winchester or maybe Hagerstown? Any location out this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Possibly all true. But you don’t think I’m really studying the weather East of I81 do you? LOL. It's where 95% of the board lives. Also the euro is further south with the ULL than other models and the EPS. So it is a little on it's own. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? Yeah I agree that right now it’s just a couple models runs and likely a couple more model runs from something way different (and likely worse). Thing that raises my eyebrow is that we have a few big gums showing g something close to workable for us. Enough antecedent cold and maybe we sneak some mangled mess in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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