WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: They are serving a purpose though...they have been telling us our chances of snow are not good...and guess what...they havent been. When/if the pattern gets better those maps will show a better probability. Just because its depressing to see that our chances suck everyday doesn't make the information useless. EXACTLY WHY I SHOW THEM.....thanks PSU. Sorry but they show the basic climatology of the area. Just like das pointed out. And yes, that’s always a low chance for snow. Anyway, I’m dropping it. To each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea but if we look at the pattern for the whole 15 day period that map covers...it is about "normal" The first 7 days are god awful for snow...with some lottery ticket super phase bomb scenario being the only chance, then after that a warmup as a trough dumps into the central US initially...then it gets good day 10-15...but only 5 of the 15 days have a good pattern...the other 10 are crap...so overall that washes out to about an "average" chance of 3" and since for that period you probably get 3" about 50% of the time...that seems about right...I would say that probability fits the pattern I am looking at pretty good. I think those probability maps have actually been about what they should be given the patterns...so not sure what all the fuss is about. All the fuss is caused by the fact that it won't snow. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Sorry but they show the basic climatology of the area. Just like das pointed out. And yes, that’s always a low chance for snow. Anyway, I’m dropping it. To each their own. Are you assuming they won’t show higher odds when we actually do get a good pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 i love the icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Our German friend keeps hope alive for this weekend. Also shows a dusting to an inch on Thursday, favored west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Icon usually is the first to sniff a new trend...but the last to trend away when that new trend has run its course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Icon usually is the first to sniff a new trend...but the last to trend away when that new trend has run its course So what you're saying in a pc kind of way is it isnt very helpful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: So what you're saying in a pc kind of way is it isnt very helpful. unless the new trend becomes the main trend and dosent run it course:)---i think its helpful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Icon is snow on snow for the 81 corridor. I would take it in a heartbeat. Surface temps are barely at freezing for both events for west of the Catoctins. Would be white rain verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: unless the new trend becomes the main trend and dosent run it course:)---i think its helpful you might be trending towards a meltdown if we don't get some snow soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 any other winter----this surface map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 great video tweet from cranky https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1221799838611922945?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: you might be trending towards a meltdown if we don't get some snow soon nah....ill drive to snow in March if i have too. I will see snow this year...so far i havent see any 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Icon is snow on snow for the 81 corridor. I would take it in a heartbeat.12z NAM took a jump towards a more ICON-like solution with the chance for snow on Thursday. Not there yet, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: you might be trending towards a breakdown if we don't get some snow soon Hopefully the ICON isnt sniffing a trend at the tail end of its run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 GFS a bit more organized but still not quite gonna get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Round Hill WX said: It is going to be very difficult to achieve the type of storm we need to get snow with this 250mb jet just racing zonally. No way to bomb and turn up the coast. I also read the fast flow across thousands of miles of the NH will decrease model accuracy. So be aware that all solutions in the medium, and long range especially, will have have some significant swings and changes. Only making the active periods even more prone to model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Better but not quite....still question the marginal cold air mass anyway even if it did manage to get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Better but not quite....still question the marginal cold air mass anyway even if it did manage to get there well it looks vastly different from 6z and trended towards the ICON. It will get there by 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, LP08 said: Our German friend keeps hope alive for this weekend. Also shows a dusting to an inch on Thursday, favored west. Pretty sad when you look out from our region. The Southern portions of Canada and most of the US in general equal very little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 its cold enough for now 12z Saturday....as long as we have moderate to heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: well it looks vastly different from 6z and trended towards the ICON. It will get there by 00z yeah, it'll get there but I'm worried about it ending up in Eerie..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: its cold enough for now 12z Saturday....as long as we have moderate to heavy precip. Though, that might be because the low is further off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, frd said: I also read the fast flow across thousands of miles of the NH will decrease model accuracy. So be aware that all solutions in the medium, and long range especially, will have have some significant swings and changes. Only making the active periods even more prone to model chaos. I agree and you can see subtle changes between 6z and 12z in the GFS. The vort(12z) over the ARKLATEX is stronger and for a time closed compared to the 6z which was flatter and in W. TX. This feature causes upstream jet dig and the surface features reflect that. I think it's going to be tough to overcome the strong jet, but it's still within the possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 25 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Though, that might be because the low is further off the coast. Yeah its a real thread the needle situation....Has to be nearly perfect and I think even then, top end potential is 2-4" for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 the GGEM had nothing at 00z. now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: the GGEM had nothing at 00z. now Yeah I was gonnna say its pretty much identical to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 the southern weenies will love the 12z gfs...the middle ones--not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ji said: the GGEM had nothing at 00z. now Still nothing as far as I can see 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Ukmet has 987 east of va beach models at least beginning the convergence phase on a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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