Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I wish that northern stream s/w would just dive faster and SSE 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Another ns vort phasing in at 129 Sounds like one of those setups where we wont know because of shortwaves flying around like crazy from the northern tier. Hard for models to time this out right until we get closer. I know you guys both know but when the timing is going to make or break because of how close it is to phasing or not we may not fully know the outcome until somewhere between 72-96 hours before it were to commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs and euro are really far apart with the NS. Gfs is dead set on amplifying and bringing it north. There were major differences but simply in terms of the play we need between streams a similarity to dec 2009. That was undecided until 72 hours. The Canada ridge is creating a similar effect on the storm track as the NAO block did in 2009. Obviously the NAO block created a much better temp regime though. The Canadian ridge with a +EPO/NAO combo is a much warmer pattern. But the pna ridge axis is similar and the issues with needing some northern stream help to amplify a wave along the coast is similar. It’s a much trickery setup than something like Jan 2016 or Feb 2010 when you have a strong stj wave and a broad full conus trough and no NS in the way. This requires interaction between multiple moving parts. It won’t be resolved as easy at range. I am not comparing the snow potential to any of those systems just the storm amplitude and track. Truth is if we had real cold we would have some HECS potential. The guidance that does phase really goes crazy. Still don’t favor that. But even if we get the phase unlike Dec 2009 we could still fail because of the awful airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Same. Whatever. I'm getting tired of this one. This winter or this storm. Or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: I might have to root for the Wed storm again . I all but gave up on it but Gfs has trended stronger at h5 ea last few runs . Too bad not enough separation from the Atlantic low . Heights out ahead just too low atm .It just needs room to diggy dig . You seem to really like this one. I see the h5 look but the surface says move along nothing to see here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This winter or this storm. Or both. All of the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 ICON has a sneaky little threat Thursday night into friday for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON has a sneaky little threat Thursday night into friday for some. Not sure that will even make it into NC Ralphie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Gfs says if next weekend doesn't work wait a few more days...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The d11-12 deal on the gfs actually has a legit block. Numerically the NAO would be in the vicinity of -2sd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Lol. Gfs with the back to back vorts and a 36 hour snowstorm. I won't complain but skeptical would be an understatement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The d11-12 deal on the gfs actually has a legit block. Numerically the NAO would be in the vicinity of -2sd That's the time frame. We may only get a shot or two over a week...10 days. That much is tbd. But this period has been looking good. Now we r starting to see some hints of actual storm activity. Too far out for specific threats but this is the pattern we have been waiting for. Not a KU look (yet) but overall nice pattern for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Lol. Gfs with the back to back vorts and a 36 hour snowstorm. I won't complain but skeptical would be an understatement Starts Thursday afternoon and doesnt wrap up till early Saturday morning. Seems plausible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I dont think we should give up on a storm 6 days away. Even if it's an appetizer 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Gfs with the back to back vorts and a 36 hour snowstorm. I won't complain but skeptical would be an understatement 36 hour snowstorm that drops 2”? WTH? 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's the time frame. We may only get a shot or two over a week...10 days. That much is tbd. But this period has been looking good. Now we r starting to see some hints of actual storm activity. Too far out for specific threats but this is the pattern we have been waiting for. Not a KU look (yet) but overall nice pattern for snow. Reminds me of JFM 2014. Not a perfect match in the upper levels but waves running along a pretty strong thermal boundary isn't complicated. Just need "the hose" pointed in the right direction. The gfs solution fits the ens for the period. What's another 10 days of waiting? Easy peezy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I dont think we should give up on a storm 6 days away. Even if it's an appetizer What's interesting about the storm for the weekend is that we've already been tracking it since like Thursday of last week. It's still 5 days away. An eternity in the weather world. We haven't really gotten much more in terms of clarity. People are just getting worn out from it being up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Starts Thursday afternoon and doesnt wrap up till early Saturday morning. Seems plausible lol Another one moves in a day later, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: 36 hour snowstorm that drops 2”? WTH? Marginal temps. Still .75 qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Reminds me of JFM 2014. Not a perfect match in the upper levels but waves running along a pretty strong thermal boundary isn't complicated. Just need "the hose" pointed in the right direction. The gfs solution fits the ens for the period. What's another 10 days of waiting? Easy peezy This period is gaining legs and actually moving closer in time and not stationary in la la land. If we can get 1 or 2 threats over 7 days with these looks, that is a win. If we can lock something in for longer, then @WxWatcher007 might be busy resurrecting the deceased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 HH delivers. seriously screw next weekends puke airmass phase needing garbage storm. I’ll sign up for week 2 of the gfs and call it a winter! No regrets. Give me the contract right now. My pen is ready. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mersky said: Snow on snow?? Getting the pieces in place for the follow up VD Storm grand pattern finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Mersky said: Grand finale?? When does the opening act perform?? I thought we had the Fathom of the Opera system no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The thing that really sucks about the 18z gfs is that if 72-96 hours of snowfall dropping 1-2' doesn't verify we have to listen to Ji implode daily for weeks.... oh wait, he already does that. We good 2 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: The thing that really sucks about the 18z gfs is that if 72-96 hours of snowfall dropping 1-2' doesn't verify we have to listen to Ji implode daily for weeks.... oh wait, he already does that. We good He will complain if that does verify that 15” over 4 days is lame and it should have been 30” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He will complain if that does verify that 15” over 4 days is lame and it should have been 30” Fathom (Phantom)of the Opera Storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2020 Author Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Fathom of the Opera Storm? Hard to fathom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ji said: I dont think we should give up on a storm 6 days away. Even if it's an appetizer I actually agree with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 He will complain if that does verify that 15” over 4 days is lame and it should have been 30”Snow for 4 days.....15 inches...that barely qualifies as snow showers 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Fathom of the Opera Storm? I like these names over member user names. I think Bob is the only member to ever have a storm verify that someone named. The other 999 that posters name for other posters end up in the sh!tter. Some sort of curse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Hard to fathom Hard to Phantom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts