jewell2188 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Please correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the overall pattern Not support a big storm idea?!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 WB EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 WB Can. same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I just going to forget this Euro run...not much to like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Please correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the overall pattern Not support a big storm idea?!? The robust Pac jet is causing issues yet again, similar to other times this winter, and last winter as well. Still way out in time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Please correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the overall pattern Not support a big storm idea?!? Strong zonal flow doesn't support a big storm tracking up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Strong zonal flow doesn't support a big storm tracking up the coast. There is a nice ridge in the west. The pacific is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Starting wondering if we're tracking a phantom with the 0z suite last night. 12z points in that direction overall. GFS/CMC ops against their own ensembles and now the euro op joins the no storm party. Time to save the GFS/CMC snow maps from 12z because that may be all she wrote here. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Starting wondering if we're tracking a phantom with the 0z suite last night. 12z points in that direction overall. GFS/CMC ops against their own ensembles and now the euro op joins the no storm party. Time to save the GFS/CMC snow maps from 12z because that may be all she wrote here. lol As long as we have the potential the following weekend...because then I could possibly take a fail on this. I don't want this to be the only halfway workable window we get...makes it more nerve-wracking tracking this one, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, LP08 said: I just going to forget this Euro run...not much to like. The Day 10 ridge is transient. That trof is into the East by day 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Day 10 ridge is transient. That trof is into the East by day 12 Feb is the great white hope for all of us. The Gerry Cooney month. Hopefully it can lock in for more than a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 5 hours ago, Scraff said: We toss! Lol, but how is this not a good look? Am I missing something? Of course I am. Ridge axis is too Far East doesn’t allow our trough to tilt the way we need it to. But yea man, realllll close 3 hours ago, Ji said: I'll take blue over green most times Anything at this point would be ok. Even a sloppy two inches. It’s the times we live in ugh lol 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: GEPS agrees with the GEFS with no southern storm next weekend. Both 12z ops showed a big hit but their ensembles strongly disagree. Not too worried about ensembles. There’s so many different scenarios in the game attm. You obviously know this better than most.. for general information though.. it’s possible and that’s all we can ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 12z EPS not looking bad in the long range. Hints of a -NAO and -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Not too worried about ensembles. There’s so many different scenarios in the game attm. You obviously know this better than most.. for general information though.. it’s possible and that’s all we can ask for Looking at all guidance as a whole there is growing evidence making the case that next weekend is a phantom irt a big snowstorm (or any decent snow event). I'm not writing it off yet but I've lost most of my interest in it for now. Gut instinct is telling me the cmc/gfs/icon ops are going to lose the big snowy coastal solutions in the near future. It's very complicated so run over run volatility will remain. I've seen this happen a number of times in the past. When ens completely disagree with their ops in the medium range the ops usually cave. Maybe it will break the other way for once. We'll see. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Starting wondering if we're tracking a phantom with the 0z suite last night. 12z points in that direction overall. GFS/CMC ops against their own ensembles and now the euro op joins the no storm party. Time to save the GFS/CMC snow maps from 12z because that may be all she wrote here. lol It's probably unlikely...12z on the whole trended the wrong way. But since the critical feature now is a northern stream one that does make me a little more hesitant to close the door since even King Euro struggles with the exact details on those. The STJ on its own isn't going to get it done though... not enough is ejecting and there is way too much going on on top of it...so the key is does the NS dig enough to phase and pull it up. The euro gets the NS shortwave out ahead and so it squashes it. It's all about timing and how much the NS digs...and I would definitely trust the euro along with ensembles over the GEM/GFS ops with that...but its a tricky enough thing that I am not totally 100 percent putting it to bed. But I am only keeping one eye on it...very much interested in the period after. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I knew I had seen the look at the end of the EPS before... EPS March 4 2015 Feb 2 1996 Right before 2 warning level events...there are other examples but those 2 stuck out in my memory from a similar pattern. Both were similar, progressive waves along the boundary. That look can work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just can't phantom waiting 10 to 15 more days for a decent chance ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I knew I had seen the look at the end of the EPS before... EPS March 4 2015 Feb 2 1996 Right before 2 warning level events...there are other examples but those 2 stuck out in my memory from a similar pattern. Both were similar, progressive waves along the boundary. That look can work. Yeah, the snow mean jumps up on the eps between the 5th-9th. Do you think we get a cutter around the 2nd-3rd as the cold moves east? Looks like the initial cold push dumps west first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just can't phantom waiting 10 to 15 more days for a decent chance ughPhantom is more apropos than what you meant to say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Just can't phantom waiting 10 to 15 more days for a decent chance ugh We've already waited 50+. Another 10-15 is a cakewalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Icon still trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We've already waited 50+. Another 10-15 is a cakewalk lets make it 35+ days that way it will push us to March, The Mid Atlantic's True Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 18 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Phantom is more apropos than what you meant to say The best Broadway play ever was The Fathom of the Opera 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 High pressure now more North at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Gfs and euro are really far apart with the NS. Gfs is dead set on amplifying and bringing it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 We know how the last act of the Phantom of the Snow opera plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Mersky said: Usually it’s the other way around. Don't have enough evidence with the FV3 version yet but the old gfs did school the euro fairly often with handling the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I wish that northern stream s/w would just dive faster and SSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Man..I thought the surface would look better lol Same. Whatever. I'm getting tired of this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2020 Author Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I wish that northern stream s/w would just dive faster and SSE If these pieces end up timed better this could easily end up a big storm ... of some sort 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts