Solution Man Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 GFS colder @ 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: GFS colder @ 138 Yea...no real reason for it...it’s nearly an identical run to 6z in the progression of all the various waves. Impressively so for the complexity of this setup. But it simply adjusted the thermal profile a few degrees colder. At that range that isn’t rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 GFS brings us back from the brink of despair! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just when I was done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 And right on cue the GFS pounds the Shenandoah Valley. Edit: pound is the wrong word. More like white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Enjoy it for the next 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea...no real reason for it...it’s nearly an identical run to 6z in the progression of all the various waves. Impressively so for the complexity of this setup. But it simply adjusted the thermal profile a few degrees colder. At that range that isn’t rare. Correct, seen it many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: GFS brings us back from the brink of despair! I apply my philosophy for Eagles games to long range model runs. You’re never as good as you think after a win and never as bad as you think after a loss. Unless you’re a Redskins fan. Then you are as bad as you think. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I apply my philosophy for Eagles games to long range model runs. You’re never as good as you think after a win and never as bad as you think after a loss. Unless you’re a Redskins fan. Then you are as bad as you think. 2020 Winter = Redskins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Even with the perfect track, it looks like a lot of white rain to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: 2020 Winter = Redskins Jim Zorn era... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I'll take blue over green most times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 This gfs run was even closer to the unicorn scenario @showmethesnow Highlighted this morning. Oh so close. You can see here the NS phases in slightly late. You can see the initial STJ wave out ahead there with the main NS dining into VA. If that had been a slightly cleaner capture we get that 980 low tucked in more are it’s the unicorn big snow scenario. Temps would have been “ok” on this run we needed a slightly better phase and tucked solution to turn it into a big one. That scenario is still low probability. So much has to go right. But the gfs op almost pulled it off so that probably means the idea isn’t totally dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Even with the perfect track, it looks like a lot of white rain to me The phase was slightly late. The ccb deform doesn’t really get cranking because of that. It’s being pinched on its NW side by the unclean phase going on between the NS and SS systems. It was close to big though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Congrats to the DC and SE folks on 12z GFS. We usually don’t do complicated well so we will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Congrats to the DC and SE folks on 12z GFS. Tropical tidbits isn’t even close to that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The phase was slightly late. The ccb deform doesn’t really get cranking because of that. It’s being pinched on its NW side by the unclean phase going on between the NS and SS systems. It was close to big though. Yeah, I guess I’m just not sure how much potential this really holds even if everything does go perfect. What’s the top bar here? 3-6” of wet paste? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 If we get into the heavier precip with a GFS track that would be a shallacking. A little bit of an earlier phase would draw heavier precip further west. You can see the northern stream vort about 6 hours late to the party. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Medium range upper level madness this week. What seemed a little simple is now very complicated. I'll wave the white flag and save myself the stress We dont do complicated well....let alone "very complicated". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Too early to know how it ends but the gem took a major step in the right direction at h5. Way less of a NS squash fest and more STJ involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Ggem back on the US side. USA! USA! USA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The phase was slightly late. The ccb deform doesn’t really get cranking because of that. It’s being pinched on its NW side by the unclean phase going on between the NS and SS systems. It was close to big though. Yup, damn that is remarkably close to a nice phase. But even missing that, white rain I suppose is better than rain only at this point. Maybe. I'm sure we'll see something different in a few hours, so many small details out there several days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, PDIII said: Wait...so I haven't delved into what the GGEM shows, but just looking at the image posted above by @Chris78, I would have thought all or mostly rain incoming. How does it dump 6"+ over the area?? I know, I know...snow maps and all that, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Wait...so I haven't delved into what the GGEM shows, but just looking at the image posted above by @Chris78, I would have thought all or mostly rain incoming. How does it dump 6"+ over the area?? I know, I know...snow maps and all that, but still. I will buy when it lays on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Wait...so I haven't delved into what the GGEM shows, but just looking at the image posted above by @Chris78, I would have thought all or mostly rain incoming. How does it dump 6"+ over the area?? I know, I know...snow maps and all that, but still. Looks like early enough phasing and we get some deform love. Oh and its the ggem lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looks like early enough phasing and we get some deform love. Oh and its the ggem lol Ggem is more accurate than the gfs. I know it's hard to accept after YEARS of ggem bashing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Ggem is more accurate than the gfs. I know it's hard to accept after YEARS of ggem bashing. Well then that's even better. Lets lock it up and call it a day. Ill push all my chips in for a region wide 3 to 6" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 incoming on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Nice little trend at 12z today. Biggest Euro run of our LIVES on deck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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