Ji Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Remember the glory days of the FV3?Lol yea....140 inches of digital snow last year. Then they overfixed it and broke it again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: The gfs cant seem to spit out a consistent track in any run...but the result is all the same...rain. but it's gone from suppressed today to coastal to cutter. Worthless model. No wonder its dropped below the ggem And that right there should tell you all you need to know. I'm quickly fading from this one. We've had 13,000 different solutions and all of them end up the same for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Remember the glory days of the FV3? Lol yea....140 inches of digital snow last year. Then they overfixed it and broke it again GFS= Garbled Frkng Scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Gfs started looking crappier by hr96. If you compare the gfs and cmc with the wed-thurs deep south wave they are far apart and it's not long range. CMC verification scores are better so that means toss the gfs and hug the cmc... unless cmc is worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gfs started looking crappier by hr96. If you compare the gfs and cmc with the wed-thurs deep south wave they are far apart and it's not long range. CMC verification scores are better so that means toss the gfs and hug the cmc... unless cmc is worse Bob what would we need to see from the CMC to be a bigger deal for the first wave. Does a weird jump from Arkansas down into southern Alabama in a 6 hr increment and then strengthens rapidly east of CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Bob what would we need to see from the CMC to be a bigger deal for the first wave. Does a weird jump from Arkansas down into southern Alabama in a 6 hr increment and then strengthens rapidly east of CHS. CMC is going to be waaay different than the gfs or icon. It's all northern stream with no southern. Kinda like the 18z euro control run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC is going to be waaay different than the gfs or icon. It's all northern stream with no southern. Kinda like the 18z euro control run... CMC barely has a storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Yeah CMC...what the French toast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I'm started to get the feeling that ops are unable to figure out this shortwave puzzle yet. We had some weird stuff happen in JFM of 2014. Of course it was fun because it kept on snowing but ops were constanty hitting the reset button around d5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 gfs finally gets cold but of course there are no shortwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 34 minutes ago, jaydreb said: This morning/overnight we were seeing sliders and misses to the east. Now we are seeing hits and cutters. This is normal for 6+ days out. Models are showing the goalposts. Presenting all of the opportunities, one of which will hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 gfs shows 0.0 precip after the cutter next weekend.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Presenting all of the opportunities, one of which will hit It’s 7 days away. We wouldn’t even know there was a storm threat there if not for NWP. You can’t extrapolate the atmosphere to 150 hours with barometric pressure rules and wind plots. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Gefs looks better for the storm that the cmc doesn't have now. Still a minority group showing anything meaninful east of the mountains. It gets really busy beyond that time. Most of the big hits are believable coastals or overrunners and not jacked up weird storms. Would be nice if additional threats pop up to take the sting out of next weekend if it goes the wrong way 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: gfs shows 0.0 precip after the cutter next weekend.....lol Look on the bright side. 0z Euro has no qpf next weekend and the cmc lost it too. ICON/GFS vs Euro/CMC. Maybe this is one of those times when a storm appears then lost then comes back and it's yuuuuge 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I don’t see a lot of upper air pattern maps posted in here. Probably because you guys are too busy chasing actual snowstorms. It seems us SE guys only chase patterns supporting snow and not the actual snow itself. Anyways, here’s a pattern map for you guys to mull over. Us southeastern guys like to call it “Spring”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: I don’t see a lot of upper air pattern maps posted in here. Probably because you guys are too busy chasing actual snowstorms. It seems us SE guys only chase patterns supporting snow and not the actual snow itself. Anyways, here’s a pattern map for you guys to mull over. Us southeastern guys like to call it “Spring”. Upper air maps are posted here plenty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 As usual, nice writeup by NWS Sterling: Two strong cyclogenesis events will occur in the poleward exit region of the North Pacific Jet during the Tuesday through Thursday time period. These cyclogenesis events will lead to strong ridgebuilding downstream across the western CONUS, while also encouraging a shortwave to dig southward toward TX/Northern Mexico by late Thursday into Friday. Multiple additional disturbances will descend down the front side of the developing ridge and interact with the aforementioned shortwave. The result of interactions between these disturbances remains highly uncertain. Possibilities range from phasing between the disturbances, development of a deep longwave trough, and the formation of a coastal low, to a cutoff shortwave suppressed well to our south, with predominantly dry conditions. With significant spread in both deterministic and ensemble guidance, confidence in any given solution is very low at this time, with both timing and amount of precipitation in the late week/weekend period very much up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 6z GFS is back to a coastal but not cold enough scenario. WB too slow so TT map. Back to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 3 hours ago, WarmNose said: I don’t see a lot of upper air pattern maps posted in here. Probably because you guys are too busy chasing actual snowstorms. It seems us SE guys only chase patterns supporting snow and not the actual snow itself. Anyways, here’s a pattern map for you guys to mull over. Us southeastern guys like to call it “Spring”. There isnt another op nor ens means outside of the euro family that shows such a trof (-pna) in the west at that time. Old euro bias of digging energy and holding it out West too long? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Eps trying to -epo by day 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Larry Cosgrove believes chance for a strong Miller A type storm is real for next weekend but is still unsure (as most of us are) on precipitation types but he is leaning towards a lesser probability of frozen near the coast/big cites and going with a "chance" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 In addition to my post above. Larry Cosgrove seem to think the pattern/models is pointing to another milder month here in February and also doesn't think any kid blocking will be present at least thru most of March. On a positive note, he still believes we will turn colder and have a backloaded winter (his opinion), we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I can’t believe someone did a drive-by and said they don’t see a lot of upper air maps posted in this thread. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The morning GFS spit out a solution that was oh so close to potentially a very good outcome for our region. Typically don't give much weight to op runs vs. ensembles outside of 5 days but in this case with the key players on the field just outside of 5 days and the op runs finer details with smaller scale features vs the smoothing of the ensembles i might make an exception. Below we have the vort map leading into our east coast storm. We have 3 pieces of energy to take note of (North stream, Mid-stream and a Southern stream). What we see here just misses from being a triple phaser in a very favorable location for our region. What we have is the MS dropping down the backside of the SS with the NS waiting in the wings in a favorable locale to drop down the backside of any potentially phasing of the MS and SS. Unfortunately what we see on this run is that the SS escapes too quickly to the east and the MS misses it. This leaves the NS dropping down with a shallower drop and we see no phasing between any of them. You can see the result on the second map below. But as I said, this was oh so close. Slow that SS energy down by 6 hours or speed up the MS by 6 and we do see a phase between the MS and the SS. We see that initial phase and then then chances are good we would see a deeper drop from the NS as it gets drawn into the initial phase giving us a triple phaser in a favorable locale for our region. Now I know the issue is/has been the temps leading into the system. But if we were in fact to see a triple phase with the general overall trough setup displayed below I don't think temps would be an issue besides the initial onset of any precip. Would probably be a case of rain to wet snow to dry powder. And this is due to the fact we would see the NS bring with it the colder air needed in the upper levels. Biggest initial handicap would be the lower and surface level temps but more then likely they would be quickly overcome. Now you may look at the surface compared to the upper levels and say, 'but the surface low pressure is already exiting the scene before the cold air can arrive. But if you look at the second map below what we are seeing is that the low pressure is forming on the lead SS energy that is running ahead of everything else. BUT... if we had seen that SS 6 hours slower with a phase. We would see that surface low delayed as well giving time for the cold to catch up to it. Conversely, if we had seen a 6 hour quicker MS energy and phase with the SS chances are good we would see a quicker response eastward from the NS and bringing the cold with it. Pure conjecture on my part, but if we would have seen slower SS energy (quicker MS) I could very well have seen this end up being a bombing low somewhere between OBX and OC as the 500's catch up and start stacking to the surface with a track leading up to the bench mark. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Were euro ensembles just as bad as the OP run for next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Were euro ensembles just as bad as the OP run for next weekend? 500's and surface improved (vs. the 12z run). Reflected on the snow maps as we saw an uptick on the snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 This really sums things up. Lot's of options still on the table. Hopefully we see more clarity soon one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 5 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Upper air maps are posted here plenty. Not worth it. Either he is in here regularly and he knows that...in which case he is trolling, or he never reads this thread and he just dropped in to post that, in which case he is trolling. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, MD Snow said: This really sums things up. Lot's of options still on the table. Hopefully we see more clarity soon one way or the other. I like the 2 HP centers mixed in one near eastern NC and one off NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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