Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said:

This brings to mind my favorite quote from Joe Lundberg:  It doesn't have to be cold in order to snow.  It merely has to be cold enough.

Depends if you consider low to mid 30s “cold”. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

18 wb gfs shows no snow in dc thru 384

Yea but I’d toss the next 2 weeks to have it look like this Feb 10th 

yes I know that’s not going to happen but if your going to take the first 15 days verbatim then you can’t toss the 16th. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Definitely not comparing 93 setup with Anyyyyything . That's a one in a lifetime.  Yea...I simply was pointing out to that poster the pressure and how low it was as it passed our latitude . Imo there's 93' ...then all other storms.

I still to this day get bummed that I missed 93&96. Especially 96. It was't like I was suffering living in the Rockies but for whatever weird reason big east coast storms are really important to me. It's an affliction that we all share here. Those that don't get it will never get it. Those that are afflicted can never get enough....

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely not comparing 93 setup with Anyyyyything . That's a one in a lifetime.  Yea...I simply was pointing out to that poster the pressure and how low it was as it passed our latitude . Imo there's 93' ...then all other storms.

Great historic storm, but probably not even top 10 here. 1996, 2003, and all 3 biggies during the epic winter of 2009-10 were far better. Jan 1987 was better here too. Even with the dry slot from hell, 2016 was better. I am sure I could come up with at least a few more. Location!

[Bob Chill]

Some interesting developments of the 18z EPS. Only goes out to 144 but there were a few warning level events on the ground by 18z Friday. Not a lot but 12z didn't have any before Saturday. Looking at member solutions it appears there is now a better chance at the coastal coming up quicker. Some of the solutions didn't look like a coastal so I dug in a little and realized it's too early to write off a northern stream shortwave working instead of a coastal... like the control run...

[frd]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I still to this day get bummed that I missed 93&96.

The mother of all backlash snows for my area was the 96 event.  Hours passed after the primary passed to my East without snow falling, but as the upper energy dived into the system the backlash developed and really hit areas further West and SW. 

Isolated pockets of 30 inches of snow, really incredible. 

I also remember this storm because it was seen well in advance but while the American models had it more a Southern Storm, more so DC the Euro went for a larger system and extending more NE to effect a larger area. 

Accu weather at the time in Philly, through channel 6 ABC,  were honking on a Wednesday for the following weekend that a major Nor Easter Snowstorm would effect the area. ( with a high degree of confidence ) 

This is when the reputation of the Euro rose to recognition I believe. The tag team ETA and the Euro at the time were both talked about a lot by Accu Weather and KYW News radio who at the time had Joel Myers and Elliot Abrams doing play by play on the event. 

I loved that storm.  Awesome track and the perfect set up. 

 

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

5-10”?  Been a long time.  The January 2011 storm kind of did that. But the front end was very dry and the airmass wasn’t as bad as this. 

But I wasn’t really thinking heavy rain to 5-10”. First our best bet is if the phase/close of the upper low happens at just the right time. We don’t want this slowly crawling up the coast. If we get a late capture so that the mid levels don’t get wrecked too bad then 2-4” maybe 3-6 NW of 95 isn’t crazy. Not likely but not unheard of. There was a storm in early January 1994 in Nova that started really warm with rain then flipped to 2-3” of snow on the back side with the deform band. There was a storm in Dec 95 like that too.  That’s a more realistic goal imo. Even that’s a long shot but not as improbable as getting the unicorn scenario we need to get a 6”+ storm from this. 

Oh man, I thought we were either looking at a big one or basically nothing and not something in between from this.

[PDIII]

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Great historic storm, but probably not even top 10 here. 1996, 2003, and all 3 biggies during the epic winter of 2009-10 were far better. Jan 1987 was better here too. Even with the dry slot from hell, 2016 was better. I am sure I could come up with at least a few more. Location!

93 was a superior event overall if you appreciate weather.  I think over 200 people died.  The derecho in florida was one of the most interesting components of the storm.  It was one of the first storms modeled 5 days out with a very high confidence

[osfan24]

Just now, frd said:

The mother of all backlash snows for my area was the 96 event.  Hours passed after the primary passed to my East without snow falling, but as the upper energy dived into the system the backlash developed and really hit areas further West and SW. 

Isolated pockets of 30 inches of snow, really incredible. 

I also remember this storm because it was seen well in advance but while the American models had it more a Southern Storm, more so DC the Euro went for a larger system and extending more NE to effect a larger area. 

Accu weather at the time in Philly, through channel 6 ABC,  were honking on a Wednesday for the following weekend that a major Nor Easter Snowstorm would effect the area. ( with a high degree of confidence ) 

This is when the reputation of the Euro rose to recognition I believe. The tag team ETA and the Euro at the time were both talked about a lot y Accu Weather and KYW News radio who at the time had Joel Myers and Elliot Abrams doing play by play on the event. 

I loved that storm.  Awesome track and the perfect set up. 

 

 

 

 

 

  

I started looking back at old videos and maps of past storms today and I found a video someone posted that showed clips of The Weather Channel covering the 1996 storm. The storm had already put down close to a foot of snow and Mancuso said new data was showing another 30 inches. Guess that didn't happen, but still an incredible storm. It was the one that got me into snowstorms. I just remember huge drifts and an amazing week of snow followed by rain and flooding.

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely talking my general area. Location for sure . 93 was simply the beast of all beasts here . The Yoda of Jedi's lol. From its beginning....tracking the tornado outbreak....the historical deep south blizzard conditions to my own backyard conditions and the aftermath of days of ground blizzard conditions. 

96,83, 2010,2003, 2016 all great 

I was only 10 in 1993, so I really don't remember that storm. I really wish I had.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely talking my general area. Location for sure . 93 was simply the beast of all beasts here . The Yoda of Jedi's lol. From its beginning....tracking the tornado outbreak....the historical deep south blizzard conditions to my own backyard conditions and the aftermath of days of ground blizzard conditions. 

96,83, 2010,2003, 2016 all great 

I was up there for 79 and 83. Both better than 93 irt storms I experienced.

eta- both beach chases in 17 and 18 were great storms too. I can appreciate 93 for the monster that it was, but in my location, it was a wet snow bomb to heavy rain to iceberg deal, and overall nothing special.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...also at the end of the run hr 144 looking at 6 hr snowfall within members theres still a cluster just starting to snow on us or just near our doorstep. 

Getting this sped up imo will make a big difference. The airmass wouldnt be as stale if it came in Friday night instead of late Saturday. A few days ago this looked like a late friday/saturday event. Holefully we can get back to that. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...also at the end of the run hr 144 looking at 6 hr snowfall within members theres still a cluster just starting to snow on us or just near our doorstep. 

It was a good run all things considered. Widened the envelope for snow solutions. Even though we're seeing some consensus with general timing and track now it wouldn't be uncommon for everything to change in a way nobody expected

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Getting this sped up imo will make a big difference. The airmass wouldnt be as stale if it came in Friday night instead of late Saturday. A few days ago this looked like a late friday/saturday event. Holefully we can get back to that. 

Seems like quite a few storms over the past few months have come in quicker than modeling projects. Hope this continues next week!

[Bob Chill]

18z control is actually a lot different with the northern stream compared to the 12z control. It's d5-6 so it's not like it's way out in lala lands. Check out the 12z control 850s on Friday. Total weak sauce all over the NE. -4s in upstate NY is terrible if we want snow

 

Now look at the 18z. MUCH colder here and the ns shortwave is drawing down more cold on its heels. 

 

We'll see what happens with the 0z suite. Seems like we may be focusing on details that may actually be irrelevant. One run is never a trend but it did introduce some doubt on a warm coastal. 

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I still to this day get bummed that I missed 93&96. Especially 96. It was't like I was suffering living in the Rockies but for whatever weird reason big east coast storms are really important to me. It's an affliction that we all share here. Those that don't get it will never get it. Those that are afflicted can never get enough....

It's why if I ever move to a "snowier" climate it probably would be NH over Colorado... I am sure I would be happy in Colorado... but NH can still get massive coastal storms and there is nothing like watching the storm develop and bomb out and looking at radar as the banding heads towards you...or waiting for the pivot... I just don't think I can give that up permanently.  And Wildcat/Sugarloaf/Sunday River are "good enough" where if they were close bye and I could catch every powder day I think I would do ok just heading out west once a year... but I would be too bummed out missing every east coast storm ever.  

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z control is actually a lot different with the northern stream compared to the 12z control. It's d5-6 so it's not like it's way out in lala lands. Check out the 12z control 850s on Friday. Total weak sauce all over the NE. -4s in upstate NY is terrible if we want snow

 

Now look at the 18z. MUCH colder here and the ns shortwave is drawing down more cold on its heels. 

 

We'll see what happens with the 0z suite. Seems like we may be focusing on details that may actually be irrelevant. One run is never a trend but it did introduce some doubt on a warm coastal. 

So...a possible cold air source for the coastal? (that is, if we were to see a trend toward this)

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Oh man, I thought we were either looking at a big one or basically nothing and not something in between from this.

models wont often pick up on a 1-3" thump on the back end from 7 days out

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill guidance is off by a few degrees on the overall thermal profile from this range A LOT... usually with a typical airmass in winter the track is more important and that is what we are focused on...and in the end that might be true here also...but it's not at all crazy to think this ends up slightly colder than the guidance things from 7 days away...and if it does suddenly those "perfect track rains" become some big snow solutions.  I know last November...from range that snow up here looked like rain...and actually the track ended up even worse but the whole airmass trended colder at the end and that made a huge difference.  I can think of plenty of other examples.  It could just as easily trend warmer and we end up with no prayer but odds are the guidance won't be dead on accurate with the temps at this range and we only need a SLIGHT adjustment colder...so really its a 50/50 shot we get that one factor to go our way.  We would then be back to worrying about track and phase and all the other multitude of factors that can lead to a fail.  

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And ya said the CCB (did you explain what that is in the snow climo thread, btw?) is something that we would need, right?

I will add some stuff about that to the climo thread now

[Ji]

18z control is actually a lot different with the northern stream compared to the 12z control. It's d5-6 so it's not like it's way out in lala lands. Check out the 12z control 850s on Friday. Total weak sauce all over the NE. -4s in upstate NY is terrible if we want snow

 
Now look at the 18z. MUCH colder here and the ns shortwave is drawing down more cold on its heels. 

 
We'll see what happens with the 0z suite. Seems like we may be focusing on details that may actually be irrelevant. One run is never a trend but it did introduce some doubt on a warm coastal. 

Wow that's a huge change

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I still to this day get bummed that I missed 93&96. Especially 96. It was't like I was suffering living in the Rockies but for whatever weird reason big east coast storms are really important to me. It's an affliction that we all share here. Those that don't get it will never get it. Those that are afflicted can never get enough....

While I've never lived away from here or been away from here when a storm hit, but I can imagine being bummed too if I was. And you're right...it's an affliction--and one that can be rather insatiable (and, as you, er...eloquently described earlier... incredibly jealous of other people's snow, lol) Shoot, I'm kinda sorry I'm not old enough to remember 1993! (I was only 2 years old!)

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Hr 150 ...997 se of OC 

Some snow into DC . More west of there 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

for reference. definitely a lot of rain/maybe some sleet for most in addition to the snow.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Calling @clskinsfan boy oh boy if that were to verify for 81.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Did we really just witness a pbp of the ICON? There's a first for everything. 

[MD Snow]

Sometimes the big one's are sniffed out early. If this does indeed happen it'll be roughly 10 days tracking it. 

[psuhoffman]

I added a simplified explanation of mid latitude cyclone development and how the "CCB" works in the snow climo thread if anyone is interested.   I know bad timing with the 0z runs coming in.  But you can check it out later.  

[psurulz]

Wow!  If ICON is even remotely right...that will be great for us along I81!

[jaydreb]

Remarkable agreement among the models on track at this point.