midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Higher elevations are looking the right place. Unless we get some cold to somehow do some magic, they seem set for the best snow. Mixing seems possible to me in the heavier stuff at the start, but this needs help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So uh...are we past the point where such a feature could pop up on future model runs...or is it still possible? The core problem is even with the 850 temps looking "ok", it's still WAY above normal north us. The technical term is the airmass is a steaming pile of dog doo but since it's early Feb it may work anyway... for some people. East of 95 often struggles with good winter airmasses and miller As. My yard struggles with lame airmasses so my expectations are a messy struggle that prob won't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So uh...are we past the point where such a feature could pop up on future model runs...or is it still possible? I'm a visual person with analyzing setups. Euro looked no different. Does this honestly look like snow is likely in your yard? Precip is knocking on the door on this panel... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 46 minutes ago, Ji said: what is WB? Is that model? I am just attributing the maps to Weatherbell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mersky said: But here are your actual 850 temps. Yes if you are east of 95 this is most likely a rain event. But west of there, especially west of 81 is very much in play for frozen precip I only care about my yard and never root for some interwebs stranger to get dumped on as I watch all my "potential snow" go down the drain. If I don't get a good event then anyone who does is dead to me. Every single weenie feels the same way deep inside and I'm not afraid to admit it publicly 7 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm a visual person with analyzing setups. Euro looked no different. Does this honestly look like snow is likely in your yard? Precip is knocking on the door on this panel... But again...is there any way things could tick a little colder in the next 4 or 5 days? Of course this particular run won't do it, but...I'm just wondering. Look, if it's already time to punt this away for I-95 and east it's better to know now then later...that's why I'm asking whether there's any possibility at all for improvement on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: But again...is there any way things could tick a little colder in the next 4 or 5 days? Of course this particular run won't do it, but...I'm just wondering. Look, if it's already time to punt this away for I-95 and east it's better to know now then later...that's why I'm asking whether there's any possibility at all for improvement on future runs. Not too much. Temps could be off by a few degrees or a high pressure could magically appear, but there just isn't really any cold source to tap. Just look at those temp anomalies. The entire continent is flooded with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: But again...is there any way things could tick a little colder in the next 4 or 5 days? Of course this particular run won't do it, but...I'm just wondering. Look, if it's already time to punt this away for I-95 and east it's better to know now then later...that's why I'm asking whether there's any possibility at all for improvement on future runs. Faster would do it. Even with a crappy track so there's no doubt ways to win. Or slower with the departing high would improve things too. Us "low elevation" folks need a small miracle. I'm heading out to boil crows toes, sacrifice chickens, and kick small animals. BRB 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 This brings to mind my favorite quote from Joe Lundberg: It doesn't have to be cold in order to snow. It merely has to be cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Hi Res Euro isnt as good as the regular one. Still a decent hit for the 81 corridor. When I receive 6 inches of snow, that is a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 49 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 93 had it 960 mb crossing over Salisbury and still snowed on us . Just saw the Gfs . I actually liked the run. Keeps us in the game . Verbatim I'd think the dynamics would have a bit whiter outcome in reality. The antecedent air mass for the 93 storm, although marginal, was better, and there was a mechanism for keeping LL cold in place during the WAA phase. Pretty much all the snow I got was from the WAA. About 8". No way that can happen with this event. In the 93 storm, as the low tracked up the coast(too far west for me) lost the surface and 850s, and ended up 40 degree rain. Point is that storm was quite different compared to this one wrt the set up leading in, despite the similar(maybe better?) low track. All that being said, your area has a knack for getting snow in these very marginal systems. In this case it will almost surely be dependent on impressive dynamics with the CCB, and that may end up too far west, or not get going until the storm is NE of the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But again...is there any way things could tick a little colder in the next 4 or 5 days? Of course this particular run won't do it, but...I'm just wondering. Look, if it's already time to punt this away for I-95 and east it's better to know now then later...that's why I'm asking whether there's any possibility at all for improvement on future runs. One of the most basic key ingredients for a good midatlantic Miller A is a cold feed to fight against the thermal mechanics of a strong gulf low. They are very warm storms to start and continuously wrap in warm moist air as they head north. That's what makes them prolific snowstorms. When looking at surface and 850 temp maps you really want to see northerly flow at both levels all the way until game time and also have a below normal airmass to the north. Doesn't need to be arctic or anything. A basic canadian hp with normal to -5C anoms works fine. So far this event has the opposite. Way above normal to our north, strong SW flow in the mid levels and southeasterly surface winds on approach. These are glaring flags. Yes, we may have the stars align for our yards and yes, I have not punted yet...however...I won't be disappointed with lots of rain because that's the most likely outcome from what we know right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 I can’t actually believe I’ve seen 93 mentioned a couple of times. If I remember correctly that thing had a massive high pressing down from Canada with temps well below normal. I was only joking when I mentioned it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I can’t actually believe I’ve seen 93 mentioned a couple of times. If I remember correctly that thing had a massive high pressing down from Canada with temps well below normal. I was only joking when I mentioned it lol. It was a much different set up. The only thing favorable about this one is some ridging out west lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 18 wb gfs shows no snow in dc thru 384 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 18 wb gfs shows no snow in dc thru 384 Not in Baltimore, philly, nyc....terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 I only mentioned 93 because the GFS has a storm with lower pressure than the '93, i.e. it's very likely GFS is overdoing it. Setup is also completely different, but that wasn't the point here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It was a much different set up. The only thing favorable about this one is some ridging out west lol. Yeah I just looked. When that low was in the gulf there was a 1036 sitting right over North Dakota. LOL, way different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 18 wb gfs shows no snow in dc thru 384 This is only one run. As Bob pointed out, the pattern is crappy for next weekend. No high over Ogdensburg, only ridging in from NA. The Euro first with 6 inches and now the GFS with 7 inches for the 81 corridor is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: 18 wb gfs shows no snow in dc thru 384 GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Looks like we could have a good old fashioned forum divider. Frederick and points N/W gets hammered with a foot of paste. Anywhere east of the fall line will be 33 and rain. Tensions will be high. Let's hope a forum civil war won't ensue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just to clear the air here.... I'm interested in next weekend and it totally fits the dynamically driven snow events that we get from time to time. We don't need any big shifts in track as is and it's slowly becoming unanimous that there will be a coastal next weekend and not a runner/cutter/slider. Can't not like that right? There are obvious glaring issues with the surface and midlevel temps/wind and those features should be carefully analyzed more than the storm itself imo. Might be a few days before we feel more confident in one outcome over the other. Maybe this is "the one" this year or maybe it's another example of how crappy our temps have been for 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Not in Baltimore, philly, nyc....terrible Maybe we have finally turned the corner. Let’s just hope it holds this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I actually like seeing that stripe of snow to our south. The Feb 5th to 10th period holds some promise, as we should actually have some real cold back in our source region, with cold fronts moving SE to deliver it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just to clear the air here.... I'm interested in next weekend and it totally fits the dynamically driven snow events that we get from time to time. We don't need any big shifts in track as is and it's slowly becoming unanimous that there will be a coastal next weekend and not a runner/cutter/slider. Can't not like that right? There are obvious glaring issues with the surface and midlevel temps/wind and those features should be carefully analyzed more than the storm itself imo. Might be a few days before we feel more confident in one outcome over the other. Maybe this is "the one" this year or maybe it's another example of how crappy our temps have been for 6 weeks. Right. Both the GFS and Euro are very close to depicting a nice event verbatim. Just need a small change to temps. Track as currently modeled is pretty much right where we would want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Tbh guys if I get 6" of sleet with the way the season has been compared to 1993, 1996, whatever we want to compare it to wont matter because this will feel just as good imo. Unless of course you guys feel the atmosphere cooks and it will be a rain or snow setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I lived along 95 for 50 years....now I have a two hour commute to DC. I will hope for snow with the cows. Move NW. I will hug GEFS WB P 17 for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: For my yard specifically I'm pessimistic. When's the last miller A poured rain and then CCB'd 5-10" close to the cities? 5-10”? Been a long time. The January 2011 storm kind of did that. But the front end was very dry and the airmass wasn’t as bad as this. But I wasn’t really thinking heavy rain to 5-10”. First our best bet is if the phase/close of the upper low happens at just the right time. We don’t want this slowly crawling up the coast. If we get a late capture so that the mid levels don’t get wrecked too bad then 2-4” maybe 3-6 NW of 95 isn’t crazy. Not likely but not unheard of. There was a storm in early January 1994 in Nova that started really warm with rain then flipped to 2-3” of snow on the back side with the deform band. There was a storm in Dec 95 like that too. That’s a more realistic goal imo. Even that’s a long shot but not as improbable as getting the unicorn scenario we need to get a 6”+ storm from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Probably silly to analyze soundings at day 6/7 but hr 168 surface shows rain but soundings in Carroll co say fatties are falling Yea if that was actually right we get a 33-34 degreee 6-8” wet paste job. The Eskimo Joe special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 What I find interesting are the GEFS hits to the South of us in the 10 Day plus range. That is new so maybe the pattern is changing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts