BristowWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Icon Euro ....gfs ggem... showing the wide range of solutions Pick the one with the worst solution. Solid advice for any situation. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Pick the one with the worst solution. Solid advice for any situation. the worst solution isnt really rain..its suppressed and dry. 12 jma fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: @frd I highly respect HM and love his approach. He's a unique thinker when making sense out things. That said, he's mentioned a flip to the better multiple times this year and none of the scenarios he's basing his outlook on have materialized. No different than what we've been doing in here. So now late Feb is the "new target" for greener pastures. I'll believe it when I see it in real time. There is nothing anyone can post or write about that increases my confidence in a better regime. We're in a never ending wash cycle of different ways to have a crappy east coast snow pattern. Will it change? Maybe but my money is on nope. Once the “two weeks away” cycle starts it rarely relinquishes. To a degree we did waste below average temps Nov. into Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but at least the treadmill didn’t flip over and crush us to death...yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'll reluctantly admit that I kinda like what all 3 ens are doing d10+... Cold continental air dropping out of Canada with an W-E oriented boundary. We haven't seen much of that this year so skepticism is warranted for now. However, this type of upper level pattern can be friendly here. We tend to do ok with boundaries like this more often than not. Not a big storm look but no doubt one that can deliver sheared/overrunning events. I really like the 12z EPS d10-15 h5 mean. You can easily envision cold pressing south over a wide expanse with the door open for the stj to get involved. General storm track would be between the light blue and white contours This period has been on the radar for a while now and is gaining legs. Like u said not a KU look verbatim but plenty of opportunities and cold air around finally. I think this is the period we score finally (feb 6-14ish).....im not sold on next weekend just yet....too fragile a setup imo. The day 10-15 looks we could botch and fumble our way into something....more of a forgiving pattern opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 gfs looks like its gonna full phase and not leave any energy behind. This shouldnt be supressed ..lets see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 also 18z gfs has a much better looking 50 50 low as storm develops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 looks like icon without the snow lol...perfect track and mostly rain smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Powerhouse storm, we need some cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Shift the low 50-75 miles east and it’d be a much better solution for the area. Verbatim its a west of 81 special. At least its something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Powerhouse storm, we need some cold air hopefully as we get closer...the modeled rain will be snow. The track is a bit too far west but i think the run is okay 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Congrats NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Ji said: hopefully as we get closer...the modeled rain will be snow. The track is a bit too far west but i think the run is okay Yep, at least something to keep us in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 no way it rains with a 531 dm ULL over us...no freaking way 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: no way it rains with a 531 dm ULL over us...no freaking way It's that secondary NS piece over the GL that screws us.. ofc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 We're 7 days away. Shouldn't really start worrying about temps until 3-4 days out. At this point, I'm hoping for building ensemble support for a big storm next weekend. Everything is still on the table imo, including no storm. Let's get a storm first and worry about temps and details later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 the icon is about 4 degrees colder at the same time...its basically the same track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 DCA is about 42 degrees and rainy on the GFS. With that track. That NS disturbance seems to erode whatever marginal cold air we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 18z GFS WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: 18z GFS WB what is WB? Is that model? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 Let’s just dive that northern stream energy in, not too early, keep a little blocking and let’s do March 93 in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Also the GFS has it becoming a 954 mb low by the time it reaches Maine. LOL. The '93 superstorm never even had pressure that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Ji said: what is WB? Is that model? Warner Brothers 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ji said: no way it rains with a 531 dm ULL over us...no freaking way Seems hard to believe in general but there is a very important key ingredient missing... Zero hp where we need it to fight off the mechanics of wrapping plentiful warm air at the surface and in the mids. Check out the mid level wind barbs north of us on approach. SW flow all the way well up into Canada. How exactly should we expect the mids to stay cold with this setup? Magic? Miller As are usually strong warm storms and we get saved by a bannana high or any hp to our north feed cold and fighting warmth wrapping in. That's missing here and we can't ignore it. It's possible that the antecedent air is good enough. OTOH- the way I see it is it's perfectly reasonable and logical to get rained on with the gfs solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Seems hard to believe in general but there is a very important key ingredient missing... Zero hp where we need it to fight off the mechanics of wrapping plentiful warm air at the surface and in the mids. Check out the mid level wind barbs north of us on approach. SW flow all the way well up into Canada. How exactly should we expect the mids to stay cold with this setup? Magic? Miller As are usually strong warm storms and we get saved by a bannana high or any hp to our north feed cold and fighting warmth wrapping in. That's missing here and we can't ignore it. It's possible that the antecedent air is good enough. OTOH- the way I see it is it's perfectly reasonable and logical to get rained on with the gfs solution Any prolonged WAA precip in front is doomed. But this run CCBd us to death. It was just 2-3 degrees too warm. We simply need that to be an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Seems hard to believe in general but there is a very important key ingredient missing... Zero hp where we need it to fight off the mechanics of wrapping plentiful warm air at the surface and in the mids. Check out the mid level wind barbs north of us on approach. SW flow all the way well up into Canada. How exactly should we expect the mids to stay cold with this setup? Magic? Miller As are usually strong warm storms and we get saved by a bannana high or any hp to our north feed cold and fighting warmth wrapping in. That's missing here and we can't ignore it. It's possible that the antecedent air is good enough. OTOH- the way I see it is it's perfectly reasonable and logical to get rained on with the gfs solution Exactly. I have pointed this out several times. I literally have zero interest in this storm for my yard. Blue ridge and westward it can work. Piedmont region needs like every box checked to make it work. I am interested in what happens when we finally get the Pac flood out of Canada and some cross polar flow back around the 6th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Any prolonged WAA precip in front is doomed. But this run CCBd us to death. It was just 2-3 degrees too warm. We simply need that to be an error. And ya said the CCB (did you explain what that is in the snow climo thread, btw?) is something that we would need, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Instead of a 50/50 low, we have a 55/35 low. What are the chances it can retrograde 1000 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Seems hard to believe in general but there is a very important key ingredient missing... Zero hp where we need it to fight off the mechanics of wrapping plentiful warm air at the surface and in the mids. Check out the mid level wind barbs north of us on approach. SW flow all the way well up into Canada. How exactly should we expect the mids to stay cold with this setup? Magic? Miller As are usually strong warm storms and we get saved by a bannana high or any hp to our north feed cold and fighting warmth wrapping in. That's missing here and we can't ignore it. It's possible that the antecedent air is good enough. OTOH- the way I see it is it's perfectly reasonable and logical to get rained on with the gfs solution So uh...are we past the point where such a feature could pop up on future model runs...or is it still possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Any prolonged WAA precip in front is doomed. But this run CCBd us to death. It was just 2-3 degrees too warm. We simply need that to be an error. For my yard specifically I'm pessimistic. When's the last miller A poured rain and then CCB'd 5-10" close to the cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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