Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Looks like the cutter idea is our for now. Now we hope for luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Looks like the cutter idea is our for now . Now we hope for luck It’s depressing because way more went right then wrong that run and it still was mostly a fail. Even a 987 perfect track slp didn’t work because the initial 2 vorts phases and the upper low closed off too soon and then the NS didn’t phase in time. We need everything to go so perfect to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 WB 12 z GEFS mean took a jog east for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Looks like the cutter idea is our for now . Now we hope for luck A quick cutter or runner would be the least complicated. Trending slower like we're seeing makes it much more complicated no matter what track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 It’s depressing because way more went right then wrong that run and it still was mostly a fail. Even a 987 perfect track slp didn’t work because the initial 2 vorts phases and the upper low closed off too soon and then the NS didn’t phase in time. We need everything to go so perfect to win. When and what phases is the hardest thing models can figure out so today is still a win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 NW folks hug P6 from GEFS 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Across guidance (gefs,geps, op euro) I think there was more good than bad 12z. The bad was too much stj getting left behind in Baja. That makes things too NS phase dependent. But other changes were positive. There’s a trend towards lower heights around the 50/50 space. The NS look trended better imo. Chances slightly improved imo. Still not likely but slightly better. After that I discussed a possible window day 10. It’s there. After that I’ll say this hopefully. The NAM looks to flip across guidance. Yes the hints are it dumps the trough out west. But if we get a NAM reversal it at least gives us a shot. Day 15 could be wrong with the exact trough location. The pac ridge could relax enough to shift the trough east at times. But at least cold can get into the mid latitudes in that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Hi Res Euro isnt as good as the regular one. Still a decent hit for the 81 corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s depressing because way more went right then wrong that run and it still was mostly a fail. Even a 987 perfect track slp didn’t work because the initial 2 vorts phases and the upper low closed off too soon and then the NS didn’t phase in time. We need everything to go so perfect to win. When and what phases is the hardest thing models can figure out so today is still a win I agree. Today increased the odds some. Mire trended good than bad. If the southern energy doesn’t split and ejects whole that would be the best scenario (I think that’s what @Bob Chill is saying too). Get a healthier stj wave in faster before the mediocre to begin with airmass rots not needing the NS complications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree. Today increased the odds some. Mire trended good than bad. If the southern energy doesn’t split and ejects whole that would be the best scenario (I think that’s what @Bob Chill is saying too). Get a healthier stj wave in faster before the mediocre to begin with airmass rots not needing the NS complications. Exactly. Good column windows have been really short all season. Slower trends amplify that problem. Good columns were brief on the balance of 2013-15 but flow was fast and active so timing worked out a lot. Not to mention that cold air constantly plowed all the way into the deep south regularly There is a 50/50 locking the hp in so this setup is better. Problem is the airmass being locked in is weak sauce to begin with. Goes back to our other issue... can't buy deep cold when it matters to save our lives 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 This hr168 12z euro panel is a great visual showing how lame temps are... there's no real winter cold within 3000 miles of where we need it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Is NAM synonymous with the AO? For some reason the 'NAM' term has been used a lot this winter but I rarely saw this terminology used here in the past. I'm sure this isn't to be confused with the NAM model. Or being NAM'd as a verb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said: Is NAM synonymous with the AO? For some reason the 'NAM' term has been used a lot this winter but I rarely saw this terminology used here in the past. I'm sure this isn't to be confused with the NAM model. Or being NAM'd as a verb. Not specific to the AO but all high latitude regions on our side of the pole. NAM state covers more real estate than specific teles like ao/nao etc. A +NAM has below normal heights on the balance through the entire AO/NAO domain space and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This hr168 12z euro panel is a great visual showing how lame temps are... there's no real winter cold within 3000 miles of where we need it One thing that could save us and it actually would be playing unti typical model bias...is if the upper low closes off and phases further north. None of the vorts even the NS ones have any real cold to work with. But you can see there how right after the initial phase of the STJ and “kinda” NS vort it did create some cold during the amplification phase down in the south. Get that phase and closing off of the upper low to haven over Western NC into VA and we win. That one run of the euro yesterday did that. I’m ok seeing the h5 low too far south at day 7. That actually could work out for us. Still need everything else to go right though. I’m trying to find reasons for optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 27 minutes ago, Mersky said: I have seen worse looks this winter. Better to use this imo so you can at least see the key teleconnections. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 GEPS/GEFS improved with the NAO...better positioning, extending into the NAO, pac ridge closer to west coast and not central PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 45 minutes ago, Weather Will said: NW folks hug P6 from GEFS 12Z Let's double that to P12! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Better to use this imo so you can at least see the key teleconnections. Not to shabby but don't we need that ridge further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: @frd I highly respect HM and love his approach. He's a unique thinker when making sense out things. That said, he's mentioned a flip to the better multiple times this year and none of the scenarios he's basing his outlook on have materialized. No different than what we've been doing in here. So now late Feb is the "new target" for greener pastures. I'll believe it when I see it in real time. There is nothing anyone can post or write about that increases my confidence in a better regime. We're in a never ending wash cycle of different ways to have a crappy east coast snow pattern. Will it change? Maybe but my money is on nope. True, and I respect HM as well. However, you are correct, HM has struggled in so much that his various calls on certain events have occurred, ( precursor events, and signals etc. ) however, the intended impacts have not manifested into - NAO cycles and deep - EPO periods, or a weakening vortex, etc. I admire his work and his track record is still very good. His call for the -EPO period in which we could experience a 4 to 6 week spell of real winter- like cold never materialized so far, and may not unless we see a dramatic change soon. Everyone, except for a couple folks, have struggled this winter so far. The only one that comes to mind whom predicted less snow and warmer temps along with a averaged + NAO and little blocking in the HL has been Isotherm. He has been stellar so far this winter. His insights as previously discussed earlier this week has guided his seasonal forecast well so far. Whomever can forecast the long range correctly a majority of the time deserves huge kudos and monetary rewards. It is the most difficult and challenging aspect in weather forecasting I feel. The changing drivers and evolving base states are re-creating the useful data used to guide seasonal forecasting, causing a diminishing of previously used weather analogs and methods in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 EPS shifted for the better next weekend. Still far from high probability. Better than 0z though. 10 out of 50 stripe our region with a decent event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS shifted for the better next weekend. Still far from high probability. Better than 0z though. 10 out of 50 stripe our region with a decent event. sounds like yesterdays 10 for 50 at 12z.....treadmill baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Ji said: sounds like yesterdays 10 for 50 at 12z.....treadmill baby! Yea but at least the treadmill didn’t flip over and crush us to death...yet. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 I'll reluctantly admit that I kinda like what all 3 ens are doing d10+... Cold continental air dropping out of Canada with an W-E oriented boundary. We haven't seen much of that this year so skepticism is warranted for now. However, this type of upper level pattern can be friendly here. We tend to do ok with boundaries like this more often than not. Not a big storm look but no doubt one that can deliver sheared/overrunning events. I really like the 12z EPS d10-15 h5 mean. You can easily envision cold pressing south over a wide expanse with the door open for the stj to get involved. General storm track would be between the light blue and white contours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Here's another one... Haven't had cold air to the north like this since the first half of december. Could be a red flag tho... There's an easy to see battleground on the panel above and we're on the correct side. Can this type of look actually hold and not degrade? Starting to look like it might. Ops are already showing it setting up by d10. For now... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll reluctantly admit that I kinda like what all 3 ens are doing d10+... Cold continental air dropping out of Canada with an W-E oriented boundary. We haven't seen much of that this year so skepticism is warranted for now. However, this type of upper level pattern can be friendly here. We tend to do ok with boundaries like this more often than not. Not a big storm look but no doubt one that can deliver sheared/overrunning events. I really like the 12z EPS d10-15 h5 mean. You can easily envision cold pressing south over a wide expanse with the door open for the stj to get involved. General storm track would be between the light blue and white contours The gefs really likes that period. The losetoa6 storm after the storm window. Again using a snow mean is lazy but you can see from the 5 day mean day 10-15 that it’s agreeing with what you have in mind. one last thing..the danger the pattern retrogresses after and the trough pulls west is real if the pac ridge flexes. However it’s a quick flip back to having a shot when the pac ridge relaxes if the HL actually flip like guidance suggests. Even the “oh no” trough back west look day 16 on the gefs is way closer to a workable progression after than where we’ve been all winter. I’ll mark today’s 12z runs in the win column for now. I liked more than I didn’t like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I really look forward to your mostly hopeful updates on the current thoughts in the meteorology community. Keep it up! I haven’t lost faith things could improve later Feb into March and now that January is toast and early Feb on life support that prospect isn’t sounding so bad. But a month ago no one wanted to hear “we have to wait until the very end of winter to have a real chance”. Right about now most would sign on the dotted line for a Feb 15 pattern flip. Seems the last two winters the same worries during January and February were going on. I ended up getting half my total snow during March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 @psuhoffman yea, gefs looks good too. Not great but good enough. Seeing decent snowfall in TN/KY is great and is a clue that cold is pressing with an active boundary. I'd be thrilled with a sheared wave running up the TN valley. Lots of good history with those events. Many 2-4/3-6 deals have that signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 In a normal winter these low positions would generate a lot of interest, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, wkd said: Seems the last two winters the same worries during January and February were going on. I ended up getting half my total snow during March. Yes but you are in North Jersey. You have a bit more time to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Icon Euro ....gfs ggem... showing the wide range of solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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