Wonderdog Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 32 minutes ago, Ji said: 40 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Ggem makes things close for next weekend. Its a good model right lol Icon has a similar track but more west. We need a miracle Both models would be great if the H5 dug more south next weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 A mid Feb to mid April MJO winter could be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 It happens sometimes but we can never escape the reality that 80-90% of our winter precip is rain on average going back 100s of years. The odds of a good trend are 10% and a bad trend is 90%. There's a very clear statistical reason that the vast majority of our events trend the wrong wayI remember a few storms that were modeled rain that snowed but extremely rare. Pd2 and late feb 2015( the west track storm) come to mind. Jan 2011 trafficgeddon too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I'm excited for the negative NAO to pop up in time for Opening Day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It happens sometimes but we can never escape the reality that 80-90% of our winter precip is rain on average going back 100s of years. The odds of a good trend are 10% and a bad trend is 90%. There's a very clear statistical reason that the vast majority of our events trend the wrong way I remember a few storms that were modeled rain that snowed but extremely rare. Pd2 and late feb 2015( the west track storm) come to mind. Jan 2011 trafficgeddon too The real flaw this winter is a total lack of deep cold airmasses. We've had zero since mid Dec. A week ago ens really teased us with deep cold. It's just not happening for any reason so far. For the next 3 weeks we really only need "normal cold" and even that is challenging it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm excited for the negative NAO to pop up in time for Opening Day. Snow again for opening day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Mersky said: Looks improved. It’s the lack of cold that is the long pole in the tent...the tent with a hole in it and the bear outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 These nice H5 tracks are painful when it’s 75% rain for everyone...81 west looks ok on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Close to the best run yet for us east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, Mersky said: Moves East from there. Big changes Problem is that it’s void of cold air anywhere....but it’s close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Well that was different. And it kind of sorta.. Well not really, looked like the cmc.. Well at least where it snowed. Little more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Euro looks a lot like march 2013. Closed low tracking too far south, marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I think I said a couple days ago that this storm has potential for areas north and west. Elevation may really help with this one. I guess we could root for it to get more amped? Might help create its own cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 WTF Euro? I was ready to be out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 UKMET has the high far enough west to make the back end interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: WTF Euro? I was ready to be out. All caveats aside...it’s a pasting out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: All caveats aside...it’s a pasting out west. haha...I live east of 95. I know my climo and I've made peace with it. I genuinely would love if areas north and west got crushed with this thing. At the very least, looks like we may have something to track this week. Which is enjoyable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2020 Author Share Posted January 19, 2020 21 minutes ago, LP08 said: Close to the best run yet for us east of the mountains. Sign me up Geez 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: All caveats aside...it’s a pasting out west. Maybe GGEM not totally off its rocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2020 Author Share Posted January 19, 2020 That euro solution is almost as wacky as yesterday at 12z. Parks a low near Memphis for nearly 24 hours then in one 6 hour period moves it ese about 300 miles. Don’t know about the rest of you but my confidence level is high 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Big Change on the 12z EURO. Can anyone explain what happened up top to make this change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, LP08 said: All caveats aside...it’s a pasting out west. Even close in west of 95. 5 inches hellz yeah. Let’s drink to this while we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Even close in west of 95. 5 inches hellz yeah. Let’s drink to this while we can. We're close to three passes for the toy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Like that storm several years ago that just spun in place and snowed on Alabama...created its own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 That reminds me of a March storm with limited available cold air that has to “create its own cold air.” But it’s late January..... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 I'm so confused. The EURO just spit out probably it's most exciting run all year...and silence from Chill, Psu and Ji.... If this ends up being a snowstorm for our area this should be the weenie storm of 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: I'm so confused. The EURO just spit out probably it's most exciting run all year...and silence from Chill, Psu and Ji.... I think Chill kinda temporarily checked out (and he said he's been busy) and psu is just taking a break from the boards in general for a couple days. I'm sure Ji's around...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: I'm so confused. The EURO just spit out probably it's most exciting run all year...and silence from Chill, Psu and Ji.... Don’t think anyone will jump on this grenade just yet. Long time to go but makes a tasty snack for weenie hunger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Dr No, maybe seeing a change of heart. I bet GFS joins party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 ICON, GGEM, EURO, UKMET and now the JMA all with the coastal idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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