Rhino16 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Or you can cross the abyss into my world and get paid to do it I’m genuinely into it, would it be a good topic to study in school and do as a job? I’ve heard it requires a lot of calculus in College... which I’m ready for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Rhino16 said: I’m genuinely into it, would it be a good topic to study in school and do as a job? I’ve heard it requires a lot of calculus in College... which I’m ready for! Yeah, lots of calculus, physics based calc, chemistry. I unfortunately couldn’t get thru it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Or you can cross the abyss into my world and get paid to do it Relfecting back on my entire life I've often wondered if I missed my niche path. I read meteorology textbooks in college for fun. Lol. Who does that? It's a tough field to excel financially and that is what held me back. This was before I knew about prop energy trading firms and how much they pay for an edge in wx prediction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Yeah, lots of calculus, physics based calc, chemistry. I unfortunately couldn’t get thru it. I’m studying calc a bit on my own before taking it next year. We’ll see how that goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Relfecting back on my entire life I've often wondered if I missed my niche path. I read meteorology textbooks in college for fun. Lol. Who does that? It's a tough field to excel financially and that is what held me back. This was before I knew about prop energy trading firms and how much they pay for an edge in wx prediction. I updated my post above. You and PSU would be great at WPC or CPC. The way to go for good salary/benefits is NWS/NOAA. I’ve had a wonderful 20 year career. You can move around as well. Energy firms pay more but much more stress. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Most everything working against us and likely to continue right into the spring. Im just hoping the -NAO doesn’t take in April with 50F RA/DZ patterns. Good points. I can certainly see a record low snowfall total for this winter season. Tracking lately has no real inner-fulfillment. The STJ showed up, but meaningless, in a base state of zero cold air, no blocking, cutters, progressive systems, etc. If we don't score in the 10 day window or late in Feb or March snow totals in the Coastal Plain and in my area as well might be just a trace to an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Relfecting back on my entire life I've often wondered if I missed my niche path. I read meteorology textbooks in college for fun. Lol. Who does that? It's a tough field to excel financially and that is what held me back. This was before I knew about prop energy trading firms and how much they pay for an edge in wx prediction. Salary starts low but you’ll get where you need to be. I started as a GS5 step 1, I’m now going into a 13 step 8. That plus all the OT with storm activations and you do very well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’m genuinely into it, would it be a good topic to study in school and do as a job? I’ve heard it requires a lot of calculus in College... which I’m ready for! The Atmospheric Science/Meteorology track is heavily weighted on calculus and physics. It’s a bear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 I'd love to get into the weather field. Seems like I missed my calling as well, but calc, physics and chemistry were a real struggle for me. I was much more a history/English guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, osfan24 said: I'd love to get into the weather field. Seems like I missed my calling as well, but calc, physics and chemistry were a real struggle for me. I was much more a history/English guy. Yeah, same but I was more of a earth science, geography kinda guy which is what my actual degree is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 LOL at the despair over that gfs run. That thing is ripe with possibilities. If you’re looking for a locked in definitive outcome, try your local psychic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, osfan24 said: I'd love to get into the weather field. Seems like I missed my calling as well, but calc, physics and chemistry were a real struggle for me. I was much more a history/English guy. Yeah as much as I love weather...that math would make me run for the hills, lol Nope!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL at the despair over that gfs run. That thing is ripe with possibilities. If you’re looking for a locked in definitive outcome, try your local psychic. I would feel a lot better if we had an arctic air mass in place. It’s a reason to look at every model run the next few days, so I’ll take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL at the despair over that gfs run. That thing is ripe with possibilities. If you’re looking for a locked in definitive outcome, try your local psychic. Yeah I don't get it, lol The thing was just showing a cutter 3 runs ago...and each model has been showing different solutions. If ya try to parse details now...you'll go mad! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL at the despair over that gfs run. That thing is ripe with possibilities. If you’re looking for a locked in definitive outcome, try your local psychic. I agree. I thought it was a great run with just enough possibilities to trend into something special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: I would feel a lot better if we had an arctic air mass in place. It’s a reason to look at every model run the next few days, so I’ll take And really...without that airmass, all the tiny details that we need to make snow are gonna be jumping all over the place until at least Wednesday...So between now and then we gonna be seeing all kinds of runs, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Wonderdog said: I agree. I thought it was a great run with just enough possibilities to trend into something special. Agreed. Would much rather start from there than yesterday's 12z cutter, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I don't get it, lol The thing was just showing a cutter 3 runs ago...and each model has been showing different solutions. If ya try to parse details now...you'll go mad! Yep agree, I am sure we will get a different look until we are about 4 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'd love to get into the weather field. Seems like I missed my calling as well, but calc, physics and chemistry were a real struggle for me. I was much more a history/English guy. Hey, hope you folks don't mind a visit from an out-of-region poster (currently living near Rochester NY but did spend most of the 1990s in MD/VA) and this is probably more of a banter post, but the talk about math and meteorology caught my eye. I was fascinated by weather growing up and read every book I could find in the library. So I went ahead and studied meteorology eventually getting a PhD and working in applied research. Anyway, my recollection...and things may have changed since I got my BS in 1984...the math required for a BS wasn't all that bad. Yes, you need to be able to handle basic calculus but I don't remember anyone flunking out or having to change their major because of the math requirements. Some had more trouble than others, of course, but even if you struggled with the math classes you might be able to get through a met program. Now, at the MS/PHD level things are different! First semester of grad school we all had to take "Intro to Geophysical Fluid Dynamics" taught by a theoretical guy. All the derivations were in tensor notation which many of us had never seen before. I believe a couple did drop out but most were able to get through even that. Lots of nonlinear equations, solving for eigenvectors...I was able to do it at the time but really have not used that stuff since. Anyway, sorry for the off topic. I come to this forum regularly to read the discussions about long range patterns, which I think are the best on the entire forum. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 34 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: The Atmospheric Science/Meteorology track is heavily weighted on calculus and physics. It’s a bear. indeed it is. i scrapped my way through a bs in math from umd and have thought about graduate met programs periodically since i graduated years ago (maybe it would help the quality of my posts lol). having the right professor matters. there were some classes i did well in that most said were difficult (i liked diffeq/linear algebra/stats), but i found calculus based physics to be a grind bc of all the formulas and just not having enough time to excel in it when you've got 4 other tedious classes. you really need to be all in on the met career. i'm in IT now and like others on here, i'm pretty ok with met as a hobby, but who knows what'll happen. oh, and it's the LR thread, so go euro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Anything hopeful I will take. This does fit the time period down the road in which the vortex may start to weaken, and the calls for a - NAO to set in towards later Feb and early March. We can only hope at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 If you want to focus in on a period of interest in regards to the vortex then look to Feb 1 st to Feb 5 th This period is where the heat flux starts to move poleward. These have been rare this season so far. Will it be enough, tune in during early Feb to see what transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, frd said: Anything hopeful I will take. This does fit the time period down the road in which the vortex may start to weaken, and the calls for a - NAO to set in towards later Feb and early March. We can only hope at this point. I really look forward to your mostly hopeful updates on the current thoughts in the meteorology community. Keep it up! I haven’t lost faith things could improve later Feb into March and now that January is toast and early Feb on life support that prospect isn’t sounding so bad. But a month ago no one wanted to hear “we have to wait until the very end of winter to have a real chance”. Right about now most would sign on the dotted line for a Feb 15 pattern flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 @frd I highly respect HM and love his approach. He's a unique thinker when making sense out things. That said, he's mentioned a flip to the better multiple times this year and none of the scenarios he's basing his outlook on have materialized. No different than what we've been doing in here. So now late Feb is the "new target" for greener pastures. I'll believe it when I see it in real time. There is nothing anyone can post or write about that increases my confidence in a better regime. We're in a never ending wash cycle of different ways to have a crappy east coast snow pattern. Will it change? Maybe but my money is on nope. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Euro looks even more separated with the streams than 00z through 120h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Regarding the math talk, coming out of high school, everything seemed difficult. But after goofing around for ten years and then going back to college (umd) at 28, I remember thinking, “Why did I make this so hard?” Ended up with a secondary ed math degree including calc I, II, III, Linear Alg, and five or six 400 level math courses. My point is that all of you thinking you can’t handle the math, I think you might be underestimating yourselves. If I can do it, anyone can. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @frd I highly respect HM and love his approach. He's a unique thinker when making sense out things. That said, he's mentioned a flip to the better multiple times this year and none of the scenarios he's basing his outlook on have materialized. No different than what we've been doing in here. So now late Feb is the "new target" for greener pastures. I'll believe it when I see it in real time. There is nothing anyone can post or write about that increases my confidence in a better regime. We're in a never ending wash cycle of different ways to have a crappy east coast snow pattern. Will it change? Maybe but my money is on nope. Both of his previous predicted wave attacks on the pv were spot on but neither was able to make a dent. The PV consolidated into an impenetrable fortress of death for our snow chances. The mid latitude pattern was also not conducive to maximize the attempts at pv disruption through wave 1-2 attacks. The mid latitudes should be more favorable to poleward heat transport next go around. The PV should at the least not be in a period of intensification like last time. The continued falling QBO also argues that future attempts at PV disruption could have more success. All that said I’m skeptical also but I’ll cede there are legitimate arguments that next time could be different. I’ll hug that thought at least for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The N. Atlantic low is much further south this run near the 50/50 Plus there are 3 vorts. 2 phase and one runs ahead lowering heights some which is the only reason it’s even close with that early phase/close off solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Even so 987 east of the Delmarva and everyone east of the blue ridge mixes anyways. Phase happened too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 WB 12z EURO for Sunday 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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