jaydreb Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Que... “The icon really isn’t that bad of a model posts” One of the keys to the weekend storm is timing. Slow it down and we lose our HPC and cold source and it cuts. Speeding it up seems like our best chance of frozen. Thoughts? 6z GFS and 0z Euro both had suppressed sliders so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What, so it can revert back in 3 days and crush all weenie spirits. Get this within 4 days. I just want a digital snow fantasy win for a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, GFS with a different H5 look again vs 6z Less NS is good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, GFS with a different H5 look again vs 6z Yeah, it looks “promising.” I want a @yodaplay by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 168...SLP near obx. Temps look fine but not sure if it will get pulled up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Yeah, it looks “promising.” I want a @yodaplay by play. Meh. But anyway, it looks like it's gonna miss to the south. But better than a wrapped up inside runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Probably slightly suppressed but it moved in a good direction, that’s for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Light precip makes it to EZF but it’s a miss East. This is going to be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, LP08 said: 168...SLP near obx. Temps look fine but not sure if it will get pulled up the coast. Doubtful with the h5 look at 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Yup..just misses east. I can roll with this for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Haha...I think over the last 48hrs the gfs has shown us every possible way to fail with this threat. Definitely an uphill battle with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Doubtful with the h5 look at 162 Yeah it’s all pretty messy. We don’t do messy well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Right direction but another run that shows how marginal and thread the needle the situation is. Too far off the coast and you don’t get the rates and dynamics necessary to create the cold for snow. Too close to the coast and we torch enough for rain. Will be interesting to track next few days at the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 East Coast is above freezing all the way to Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Maybe that Canada low messed it up a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, jaydreb said: East Coast is above freezing all the way to Canada. Yup. Lock that up a week out. A classic late phase misses us hits NE job. We need the NS to slow down and dig behind the SS at just the right place for us to have a chance, if what the gfs just spit out is actually where things are headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Meh. But anyway, it looks like it's gonna miss to the south. But better than a wrapped up inside runner. It’s possible. But the problem is either suppressed or a cutter are more likely outcomes than the perfect combo we need. If the stj wave doesn’t phase its going to increase the chances it stays south because that ridge in Canada is pretty far south. If it phases because there is no cold we need the phase to happen in exactly the right place and time or we get too much southerly flow and rain. Typically in a setup like this we might have 50% of the viable likely permutations be snow outcomes. But with the current modeled airmass it’s more like 20%. But sometimes the 20% hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Maybe that Canada low messed it up a little bit The 850 mb temps are ok. Bigger problem is that weak HP slides off the coast. With the true arctic air bottled up well north, its going to take a perfect track, and a strong low to dynamically cool the column. IMO it is nearly impossible to get a snowstorm for the coastal plain. Would literally take perfection. Could work out for the Piedmont, but even there just about everything would have come together just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 GFS crushes New England. Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup..just misses east. I can roll with this for now. Yeah at Day 7...and with all the jumping around on the GFS...yeah, we can definitely take this for now. At least it's closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 The “chill” wave on wed/thurs will likely have an effect on the weekend deal. I would expect more wild swings until guidance locks on to a final solution for the midweek deal. 12z Gfs basically has nothing for that wave while CMC is way more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The 850 mb temps are ok. Bigger problem is that weak HP slides off the coast. With the true arctic air bottled up well north, its going to take a perfect track, and a strong low to dynamically cool the column. IMO it is nearly impossible to get a snowstorm for the coastal plain. Would literally take perfection. Could work out for the Piedmont, but even there just about everything would have come together just right. I don’t know what storm it was, would have been sometime in the early 90s, but there was a situation where a forecast for some light rain turned into a 3-6” snowstorm just west of philly because a storm amplified just enough to CCB thump and create its own cold. It was in one of those dreadful warm winters between 1988-1993. A small area just west of 95 (I mean just west, I got maybe 1” in south NJ but we were visiting family friends that lived just southwest of Philly and they got 5”) but everywhere around even north was 40 degrees. That’s kind of what we need to happen here if there is no phase. If we get a NS phase that would inject true cold into the backside so the CCB wouldn’t have that problem but would also blast even more warmth up the east side so there would be no WAA snows ahead of it. So we would need the perfect upper low phase and track. There are fatal flaws without supreme luck in both scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Yeah. CMC basically lost the weekend storm. Most amped with the midweek deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs day 10 another shot . H5 looks better The storm after the storm is like the backup QB. Looks great on the sideline but once they need to get in there and play...not so much. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs day 10 another shot . H5 looks better Eh. Verbatim pos tilted trough, looks like a glorified frontal passage to me. I’ve seen how those play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 If next year is anything like this year I'm retiring from this dumb hobby. I was semi retired in the fall but old habits die hard I suppose 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t know what storm it was, would have been sometime in the early 90s, but there was a situation where a forecast for some light rain turned into a 3-6” snowstorm just west of philly because a storm amplified just enough to CCB thump and create its own cold. It was in one of those dreadful warm winters between 1988-1993. A small area just west of 95 (I mean just west, I got maybe 1” in south NJ but we were visiting family friends that lived just southwest of Philly and they got 5”) but everywhere around even north was 40 degrees. That’s kind of what we need to happen here if there is no phase. If we get a NS phase that would inject true cold into the backside so the CCB wouldn’t have that problem but would also blast even more warmth up the east side so there would be no WAA snows ahead of it. So we would need the perfect upper low phase and track. There are fatal flaws without supreme luck in both scenarios. Yeah that could always work, and produce localized heavy snow, in some cases east or south of places where precip is light/mixed and not accumulating. See that happen in early Spring storms sometimes. I would put that in the 5-10% probability at our latitude in this case. If this storm is going to deepen enough to CCB clobber a location, it will likely be to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 At least we will enter spring not in drought conditions lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If next year is anything like this year I'm retiring from this dumb hobby. I was semi retired in the fall but old habits die hard I suppose Or you can cross the abyss into my world and get paid to do it. I enjoy your posts and expertise. If you and PSU Hoffman ever decide on a Met career I think you’d be a great asset to either WPC or CPC with your knack for pattern recognition and analysis. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs day 10 another shot . H5 looks better Snark and skepticism aside that day 10 time period might be our best chance from all these flawed lottery ticket threats. As the pattern goes through it’s predictable every 2 week flip there is an actual window of opportunity. Even if we assume the progression is what we fear and we end up back in a pac ridge western trough nightmare, as the Hudson ridge progresses east there is a period where a shit of actual cold gets ejected from AK down behind the departing Canada ridge. That ridge then traverses the NAO domain (as Ralph pointed out) which will help press that cold into the east of only temporarily. Assuming we continue the wave train that would create a 3-5 day window of opportunity before the pac ridge dumps the next trough into the west and we ridge away. In theory that would be our best look of this god awful season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts