jaydreb Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 GFS almost nails us with a follow up snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Do you mind showing this same map through 228 hrs? I'd like to see the additional snow from upslope event in west Virginia. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering what we're seeing on the ops now it's easy to envision the razor thin margin of error. This can all easily improve with better track/colder air etc but anyone who gets married to this "snowstorm" from long leads is setting themselves of for a disaster. yea, too early to tell. could be a cutter or could get squashed like the canadian. the middle ground shows a storm with workable cold air, so that's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 41 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: You have to love the gulf low and not a another system anywhere in the lower 48 . Give it time a low in he lakes will show up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: That = no skiing in snowshoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, Solution Man said: That = no skiing in snowshoe Too much snow? I think that includes some snow from the upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 18z GEFS continues to not like the d8-10 event. Mostly rain solutions for everyone. Gefs has a warm bias right? RIGHT?! Lol OTOH- gefs looks really good for the next event in line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Anything to stop me from flipping through photos of past snowstorms. All aboard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 GEFS through next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just gotta get these storms under 3-5 days!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Best GEFS run in a while? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'll take a overachieving clipper 2 days later after our Mecs to dump a fresh 2-4" to keep our snow pack . I believe Jan 96' had a clipper a day later after the Hecs then later that week another 8-10" I believe. If only lol The surprise clipper on the Tuesday after the blizzard. Pulled off an un expected 4-5 inches. Not your traditional clipper if memory serves. Kind of an upper air disturbance that enhanced over our region. There were no calls for more than an inch or so I believe. Snowed for most of the day with temps in the 20's. Nothing like snow on snow and then tracking another snow that would hit 3 days later. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 31 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Too much snow? I think that includes some snow from the upcoming week. Hopefully some skiing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 32 minutes ago, HighStakes said: The surprise clipper on the Tuesday after the blizzard. Pulled off an un expected 4-5 inches. Not your traditional clipper if memory serves. Kind of an upper air disturbance that enhanced over our region. There were no calls for more than an inch or so I believe. Snowed for most of the day with temps in the 20's. Nothing like snow on snow and then tracking another snow that would hit 3 days later. Yeah, that week in 1996 was awesome. HECS followed by two surprising overperformers that dropped another combined 10-15. One of the better clippers I can remember. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 To have Bob Ryan, who was always conservative but usually right to predict 1-2 feet before a flake fell was awesome. Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 50 minutes ago, HighStakes said: The surprise clipper on the Tuesday after the blizzard. Pulled off an un expected 4-5 inches. Not your traditional clipper if memory serves. Kind of an upper air disturbance that enhanced over our region. There were no calls for more than an inch or so I believe. Snowed for most of the day with temps in the 20's. Nothing like snow on snow and then tracking another snow that would hit 3 days later. I was living in College Park at the time and that band set up N/S over central MD and just kept cranking for hours. Picked up about 6” from it, which made up for some “disappointment” that the weekend event had only amounted to 19” with all the sleet that mixed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: U only got 19" from January 6 1996? I dont recall any sleet here. I definitely got some sleet at the end of the storm in the Catonsville area. I think I was close to two feet, but areas to the west definitely did better because of some mixing. It's funny people talk so much about how almost all of our big storms mix but none of our recent big storms have mixed, at least not at my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: U only got 19" from January 6 1996? I dont recall any sleet here. Yep. I was at about 300’ asl inside the Beltway a mile or so from the University of Maryland. It sleeted much of Sunday afternoon and evening in my yard before it flipped back to wind-whipped snow late at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I definitely got some sleet at the end of the storm in the Catonsville area. I think I was close to two feet, but areas to the west definitely did better because of some mixing. It's funny people talk so much about how almost all of our big storms mix but none of our recent big storms have mixed, at least not at my house. Jan 16 was sleet and snizzle all morning for me. Thunder sleet at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: GEFS through next weekend. west virginia looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: The 10 count was within areas east of the mountains so a general statement because location matters as usual. Here's the 24hr snow meteo for Gburg Here's the qpf meteo. Lot's of big rainers in the bunch it seems. About 1/3rd have over 1" qpf. Considering what we're seeing on the ops now it's easy to envision the razor thin margin of error. This can all easily improve with better track/colder air etc but anyone who gets married to this "snowstorm" from long leads is setting themselves of for a disaster. thanks man..i just wanted to see if the EPS agreed for the most part if there would be a big Low next weekend that produces heavy precip. We can worry about the cold in 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm pretty sure Baltimore was 24" . Dulles 25" or so . Definitely a local minima in your yard by the sounds of it . Hopefully next weekend u get 20" My current location was 30”+ in ‘96. It was still a great storm where I was, given all the drifting. But from DCA northeast through central PG County and east toward the Bay there was a stripe of sub 20” totals. I drove to northern NJ the Thursday after the storm and was amazed at the snow depths, especially from the Susquehanna River north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: PD2 mixed here for hours . And that was with temps like 10-13 while snowing. Would have been 30 inches probably Was that 2003? I was in College Park at the time and the storm was a bunch of sleet toward the end, but we definitely didn't get as good of a storm down there as the Baltimore area for that one. Totals were definitely lower in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Jan 16 was sleet and snizzle all morning for me. Thunder sleet at one point. Really? I don't remember any sleet and definitely not any thunder, but I was flirting with or in the dry slot for a lot of the morning, so it was a lot of flurries and snizzle. Then the backside finally pushed a little east and it absolutely cranked for about 4 hours or so in the afternoon. Feel like I picked up 8-10 inches of snow in the afternoon, maybe even more. Was absolutely dumping and the wind was blowing so hard you couldn't see halfway down the street. One of my favorite winter storm memories for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 In February 2003 I was in Mass. for a long weekend and had to stay over in Leominster and wait for the storm to pass. I’ll never forget coming home to Maryland. It was like a bomb had hit. Lanes on 695 were not plowed. Crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 18z GEFS Probability maps as said above not liking next weekend but honking in the later period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 It’s always the storm after the storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: It’s always the storm after the storm. I don’t remember GEFS ever liking next weekend’s storm. EPS is not enthusiastic either. Look- the 12Z EURO op. had a good to great track for us to thread the needle with marginal cold air. Trend or fluke? We will find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 53 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 18z GEFS Probability maps as said above not liking next weekend but honking in the later period. I’d bet that you could stat any year, any 16 day window from mid December to mid February and you would get a 30-40% chance of a 3” snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Why I'm not bullish on anything in this pattern 7 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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