Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: This is the only map we care about... dude i dont care of boston gets 41...id take this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: And you seem keep holding that over my head despite the fact that the last several years I have been very new to this, but have been learning year by year. Look I get it...I'm learning our region's tendencies. I've learned how la Nina's suck. I'm learning how much of a tightrope it can be to get snow around here (and what a classic storm looks like). I am learning how much chaos there is, and how we sometimes need multiple swings to get something. The difference with my outlook this year was solely based on our every 3-4 history with footers--but I am very aware that trends can break anytime (as I've said) But my goodness, is it so wrong for me to at least HOPE it continues? (while under no delusion that anything HAS to happen). P.S. Yes, I like to be able to have things to look at as predictors of other things...but I've been growing understand how much "chaos" there can be in weather. Stick around for a few more years/decades and you come to understand that while statistics have helped to make great strides in this sport, coming at it from an A +B=C mindset will drive you off the ledge. Look at the last 2 years for example. Stats can surely help, but a changing environ/base state are not able to be accurately factored in, and with so so many variables with any given event, IMO it is really a blended approach of statistics/physics/models/and a keen understanding of how it all comes together. While statistics are a big help, they also can lead to false hope/despair. Think about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This is the only map we care about... Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: dude i dont care of boston gets 41...id take this Yea...it’s one thing when we get totally shafted but as long as I get a warning level event obsessing over “who got more” seems silly. Just ruins what is a rare opportunity to be happy as a snow weenie. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Textbook definition of a forum divider. What happens after this panel? One before it (shown in another post above) had a sleet line through the DC area. Does the cold air wrap back in, or does that rain line just push farther northwest? I know, not that it should matter dissecting minutia for a day 8-10 deterministic model...but curious all the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea...it’s one thing when we get totally shafted but as long as I get a warning level event obsessing over “who got more” seems silly. Just ruins what is a rare opportunity to be happy as a snow weenie. That mindset plagues the human race. lol. At every single step of your life there are people more successful than you, richer than you, luckier that you, etc. Appreciate what you have at all times because in the same vein there are always people less successful, less wealthy, unluckier, etc. 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 @Ji look at the h5 track. Base of the upper level trough goes across the TN/KY border through southern VA then closes off as it passes just under us. That’s the “Goldilocks” upper level look I was talking about yesterday and this morning. This was close to the perfect run. Only thing that could have maxed it out more would be a little weaker NS system initially and stronger STJ wave to wrap up the coastal 6 hours sooner...then you get that 12-24” area down here...but that’s getting really picky and if you wrap the low up too early you get the rain solution again so it’s a thin margin for error with barely any cold in place. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 This is also 8 days away... Things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: This is also 8 days away... Things will change. No it's locked in. 8 days is the "rule" for whether something is happening or not. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 It is a great look for sure. Temps are a bit iffy at the start verbatim. But it is way too early to be even thinking about that. I would also prefer the phase to happen a bit further south. At least for my area. But exciting run overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Wondering if happy hour GFS will finally get a clue? I have sneaking suspicion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is showing such a basic and easy setup that I can't imagine anything going wrong If the wires are routed properly it will snow, what could go wrong? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 12z EPS is better than 0z but not really close to supporting the op. EPS supports a forum divider or all rain more than a flush hit along the piedmont. Still an improvement run over run and there is a cluster of I95 hits in the mix. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z EPS is better than 0z but not really close to supporting the op. EPS supports a forum divider or all rain more than a flush hit along the piedmont. Still an improvement run over run and there is a cluster of I95 hits in the mix. It was better than I expected at that range. Obvious improvement from 0z. This isn’t the best way to illustrate it but it’s the easiest and I’m busy 72 hour mean snowfall 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 what are folks using to view the Euro ensemble these days. TT is very limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z EPS is better than 0z but not really close to supporting the op. EPS supports a forum divider or all rain more than a flush hit along the piedmont. Still an improvement run over run and there is a cluster of I95 hits in the mix. Ironically the GEFS moved away from this system. Still there but past runs were better. Euro op might be out to lunch, just a hunch, we've seen this a bunch....the gutpunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 @psuhoffman Under the hood there are 10 out of 50 that hit the piedmont/I95 corridor. Some big hits and some lame ones. I expected more than 10 given that it's d8-10 now and not way out there. I wasn't expecting the majority to suddenly jump on the big hit parade but I was also expecting a bit more support than what it shows. An improvement is an improvement though so trend is friend and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman Under the hood there are 10 out of 50 that hit the piedmont/I95 corridor. Some big hits and some lame ones. I expected more than 10 given that it's d8-10 now and not way out there. I wasn't expecting the majority to suddenly jump on the big hit parade but I was also expecting a bit more support than what it shows. An improvement is an improvement though so trend is friend and stuff. I guess I had lower expectations. There are flaws. Just because this one op run spit out the damn perfect set of permutations we need to make this work doesn’t make that suddenly likely imo. It just means it’s within the envelope of possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I guess I had lower expectations. There are flaws. Just because this one op run spit out the damn perfect set of permutations we need to make this work doesn’t make that suddenly likely imo. It just means it’s within the envelope of possible. Given the general setup I would think there are mulitple ways for it to work out. Op was a unicorn. I think we can all agree there. Not seeing a number of 1-3/2-4 deals implies that this may be an all or none type of scenario. Crapload of time before it all starts really mattering. Would feel better if ens consolidate towards a more unified solution by the end of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: what are folks using to view the Euro ensemble these days. TT is very limited. I think mostly weatherbell and pivotal weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 @Bob Chill I did see material improvement wrt the h5 setup though. Leading into it look at the 50/50 signal. That 50/50 Hudson Bay ridge combo puts us in the game at least There is enough to like here... nice western ridge, that h5 track is classic. The 50/50 departs a bit faster then ideal and I’d prefer the ridge centered by Hudson not east but it’s close enough to the +AO big storm composite look actually Its a shame the airmass is atrocious. That’s why the results are lackluster. Every variable has to be spot on perfect to work. If we had a colder antecedent airmass I bet the ensembles would be lit up like a Christmas tree right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 45 minutes ago, Interstate said: This is also 8 days away... Things will change. However, weekend rule 'would' verify. So we got that going for us. Which is nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Given the general setup I would think there are mulitple ways for it to work out. Op was a unicorn. I think we can all agree there. Not seeing a number of 1-3/2-4 deals implies that this may be an all or none type of scenario. Crapload of time before it all starts really mattering. Would feel better if ens consolidate towards a more unified solution by the end of the weekend. Right now at least, guidance is indicating there isn’t enough cold air for a marginal setup to work. Light precip will be rain. A questionable track will be rain. A perfect track but not amplified enough will be rain. The only snow scenario is a perfect track amplified storm that CCBs the living hell out of us such that dynamic cooling overcomes the thermal deficiencies. That’s why you’re seeing the mediocre ensemble results imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Well add the eps to the “flip up top” camp. Again I don’t care what the day 15 details are. Seeing all guidance weakening the death grip the PV has up top is good news. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Well add the eps to the “flip up top” camp. Again I don’t care what the day 15 details are. Seeing all guidance weakening the death grip the PV has up top is good news. this should make judah cohen relevant again on twitter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Ji said: jb probably already firing up the delayed but not denied standard line Delayed but not denied is mostly a cover up for a busted forecast. Timing is one of The Critical components of a forecast. Always two weeks away is a component of that which may after several months finally verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 12z EPS is better than 0z but not really close to supporting the op. EPS supports a forum divider or all rain more than a flush hit along the piedmont. Still an improvement run over run and there is a cluster of I95 hits in the mix. WB EPS 12Z. As Bob describes, while under 9 days, operation is not a lock solution yet but my fingers are crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: This is the only map we care about... 15” here...check please. we know this isn't correct. i get more than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 24 minutes ago, mappy said: we know this isn't correct. i get more than you. February 1958 had some similarities to the euro track and location of the phase and your area had more from that so it’s possible... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I want the bob chill storm back...that was a slam dunk 3 to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts