psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Maybe we somehow can get the AK PV to sort of roll over and displace near the Aleutians? Time that with the ridging near the NAO, the PNA spike, and have that feature pump heights into the EPO domain. Just looking for possibilities. Of course 10 days+ out, things could collapse and go opposite etc. There is some confidence beginning to build in the LR and I like how they are 'hints' and not some in your face epic look that will undoubtedly fall apart. It can snow with an AK vortex if we get a -NAO. We’ve had plenty of Feb snowstorms in that look. Just need to weaken the PV such that it’s not encompassing the entire AO space from Epo to NAO. That simply sets up a raging zonal mid lat jet where the mid latitudes are warm pretty much across the entire N Hem. Have to get that to break down to have a sustained good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 GEFS shows some potential for the Feb 1-2 deal to work out but it also really illustrates how close we are on temps and how that could be a problem. Beyond that is typical shotgun in "who the F knows" land. ETA: need to walk back on the who the F knows comment... GEFS actually has a cluster centered around the 5th-7th. Nothing eye popping but it's easy to see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Looks like an attempt to start altering the NAM state as we begin Feb. Expected impacts would be later in the month, but we might start to see a more favorable HL background as soon as mid Feb. Should this occur, there is the possibility it might lock in for a couple weeks towards later Feb and early March. As we get deeper in Feb. hopefully a more robust cold air source gets established in Canada, that we can tap into. 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just need to weaken the PV Maybe the process begins soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 The gefs kind of did move towards the op wrt the NAO long range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs kind of did move towards the op wrt the NAO long range. It was a pretty good run overall. Extremely active just like the ops are showing but man is the spread huge on sensible wx. Keeping it simple is the best approach. Transition into an active pattern with some semblance of a PNA ridge and let the chips fall. I'm starting to think we won't go 15 days without some sort of winter wx. How much and when is above my pay grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There was an “or”. Roll with the unpredictability. Maybe my perception is wrong, and if so I apologize, but for several years now you “seem” to really obsess over trying to find predictability to our snowfall chances. Beyond a week or so that’s difficult. We all want that. But it’s just not realistic at long range. Truth is we get a few great years time to time but any given year has a higher chance to suck than be good. Basically I always expect it to suck...I don’t expect snow, and then whenever it comes I appreciate the hell out of it. Less stress that way. And you seem keep holding that over my head despite the fact that the last several years I have been very new to this, but have been learning year by year. Look I get it...I'm learning our region's tendencies. I've learned how la Nina's suck. I'm learning how much of a tightrope it can be to get snow around here (and what a classic storm looks like). I am learning how much chaos there is, and how we sometimes need multiple swings to get something. The difference with my outlook this year was solely based on our every 3-4 history with footers--but I am very aware that trends can break anytime (as I've said) But my goodness, is it so wrong for me to at least HOPE it continues? (while under no delusion that anything HAS to happen). P.S. Yes, I like to be able to have things to look at as predictors of other things...but I've been growing understand how much "chaos" there can be in weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: It was a pretty good run overall. Extremely active just like the ops are showing but man is the spread huge on sensible wx. Keeping it simple is the best approach. Transition into an active pattern with some semblance of a PNA ridge and let the chips fall. I'm starting to think we won't go 15 days without some sort of winter wx. How much and when is above my pay grade. Active pattern in first two weeks of February is about as much as we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Active pattern in first two weeks of February is about as much as we can ask for. Some cold to go along with it would be nice... Maybe it is all we can expect.. that I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Active pattern in first two weeks of February is about as much as we can ask for. It's nice to see things holding in time as the leads close. Appears to be our best general setup of the winter so far but that really isn't saying much considering how abysmal it's been. lol. My expectations are slowly shifting towards above normal odds of getting some sort of snow event. Temps are going to frustrate us though. No real deep cold being advertised until late in the first week of Feb. I'd hate to have a forum divider storm. General pattern looks like the typical east of the fall line is dicey at best and once you get further NW it looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs kind of did move towards the op wrt the NAO long range. jb probably already firing up the delayed but not denied standard line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 The GFS was a pretty big weenie run for out this way. The only thing I am taking away from it is that an active pattern is coming. I dont think we get shut out in our prime climo period if it really end up being that active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 The chill storm only needs to trend about 400 miles in 5 days to give us a good snowstorm. I've only seen one storm actually do that....... In the past week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Geps gets some NAO ridge day 11-13 but then shifts to a ridge over the top from the epo side. But so long as the guidance agrees to break down the +++NAM state it’s a win imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Geps gets some NAO ridge day 11-13 but then shifts to a ridge over the top from the epo side. But so long as the guidance agrees to break down the +++NAM state it’s a win imo. So far this winter the JMA has been doing rather well I believe with features inside of weeks two. Until recently when it forecasted the - EPO to develop and it was a false alarm. I feel the - EPO will not be denied indefinitely. Would make sense for it to show in Feb. Then, on its coat tale, would be possible - NAO period later in Feb., or more likely in early March based on the seasonal odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Regarding the PNA and the Euro - this is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 After a minor peak upwards the IOD is down to + 0.12 the lowest yet 20191021,20191027,2.06 20191028,20191103,2.01 20191104,20191110,1.67 20191111,20191117,1.58 20191118,20191124,1.36 20191125,20191201,1.14 20191202,20191208,0.86 20191209,20191215,0.82 20191216,20191222,0.56 20191223,20191229,0.31 20191230,20200105,0.17 20200106,20200112,0.34 20200113,20200119,0.12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Too much northern stream. We need the stj wave to be the dominant player. Right now the NS is in the way wrt the threats next weekend. Lots of time for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 improvements on the Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Of note the IOD area and the NE Pac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: improvements on the Euro.... Yes...it’s very close to a big snow. It trended this way from 0z... more STJ and less NS here and this is a big hit 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Its a monster for the northeast....wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Textbook definition of a forum divider. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Euro is showing such a basic and easy setup that I can't imagine anything going wrong 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Textbook definition of a forum divider. Shocking. NE MD pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Shocking. NE MD pummeled. i might stay for this storm...and then as it winds down...take a flight to New England and call it a winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Since it is hard to figure out where to find it on pivotal I included a wider view: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 This is the only map we care about... 15” here...check please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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