Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[RevWarReenactor]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I suggest you reset expectations. Your using a numerical anomaly to convince yourself we won’t fail. That very short term trend of storm frequency is just a random anomaly within a larger set of random chaos. Trust me I’ve done the actual statistical analysts and yes at the start of any given stretch the longer you go the less likely you don’t get snow...because at any given time there is a chance of snow, but once you are years into a snow drought the odds of breaking it are no better each year over the long term.  We have had 4 years in a row above normal.  We have had 8 years in a row with little to no snow.  

Besides...if it snows it will melt and be gone and so by spring so what we should be over it. Maybe we get a big snow next December. It will snow again. Sucks to have to wait but since we don’t have any control I suggest you relax and just roll with it. Or move somewhere it snows more regularly.   

But we are still on track for the worst 4 year stretch in DC since record keeping began in the 19th century.

That is very below what is normal no matter how you slice and dice it.

[jaydreb]

GFS doesn’t get it done but it’s a different look.   

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

But we are still on track for the worst 4 year stretch in DC since record keeping began in the 19th century.

That is very below what is normal no matter how you slice and dice it.

Exactly (same up here! At least DC was thrown a bone last year with the January snow, lol)

[ryanconway63]

are we rooting for a stronger Chill storm in order to setup for the Feb 1 storm?

[Ji]

Wild gfs run

[ryanconway63]

Apps runner, smgdh 

[stormtracker]

We just can’t win, even with digital snow. 

[Ji]

Apps runner, smgdh 

But it gave us snow lol unlike the coastals lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wild gfs run

It's not every day you see a decent LP track due East from Dallas to Savannah to Bermuda.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Apps runner, smgdh 

But it gave us snow lol unlike the coastals lol

Really honking at mid and upper levels. Forget surface for a few days. Every piece of guidance is screaming major winter storm next weekend somewhere in the East.

[87storms]

that system next week doesn't seem too far off for this area. nice hp in place as well.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Apps runner, smgdh 

500mb suggests not quite as "cut" as the surface map may depict. The key features were much better. PNA, diving NS energy into the trof, some ridging out ahead, weak confluence but at least there. Align that trof axis right between the 6z Gefs and this op run and voila.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Something brewing behind it too. Active times ahead. The setup moving forward after the 5th if it progresses as shown and some models are depicting may provide some redemption even if only short-lived for a week or so. But alas, one system at a time. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

That's a heck of a 50/50 setting up. If only this wasnt 10 days out...as always lol.

Eta: I still like the general look in the LR as ns systems continue to dive, pna keeps firing, stj is undercutting and juicy, and there is ridging in the N Atl (East based NAo region?) developing. The AK vort is actually pumping height under and out in front and feeding the PNA. Maybe it can help just enough instead if be a thorn in our sides.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm not trying to "convince" myself of anything...stop acting like I'm denying reality. I've said over and over again that the trend could break anytime. Yes I'm hoping it doesn't...sure we've been able to time it with a watch. But I am NOT trying to deny reality. And no, I cannot move somewhere else...that option isn't possible or feasible at this juncture.

There was an “or”. Roll with the unpredictability. Maybe my perception is wrong, and if so I apologize, but for several years now you “seem” to really obsess over trying to find predictability to our snowfall chances. Beyond a week or so that’s difficult. We all want that. But it’s just not realistic at long range. 

Truth is we get a few great years time to time but any given year has a higher chance to suck than be good.  Basically I always expect it to suck...I don’t expect snow, and then whenever it comes I appreciate the hell out of it. Less stress that way. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

CMC has the Bob Chill storm  near Hatteras. Little weak, but better run.

[Ji]

There was an “or”. Roll with the unpredictability. Maybe my perception is wrong, and if so I apologize, but for several years now you “seem” to really obsess over trying to find predictability to our snowfall chances. Beyond a week or so that’s difficult. We all want that. But it’s just not realistic at long range. 
Truth is we get a few great years time to time but any given year has a higher chance to suck than be good.  Basically I always expect it to suck...I don’t expect snow, and then whenever it comes I appreciate the hell out of it. Less stress that way. 

Ya I dont get this dude. We might on the average get 4 days a year where heavy snow falls. He might need to move

[Ralph Wiggum]

This could work down the road. Just starting to get the cold air source reloaded too. Like PSU said, need the AK vort to loosen its grip a bit. Thinking a bit farther along is where the key period lies. Might not reflect on the op but I like where we might be headed in Feb. 

[Ji]

CMC has the Bob Chill storm  near Hatteras. Little weak, but better run.

Icon was trying to bring it back too...its like on its 3rd resseructuon

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CMC has the Bob Chill storm  near Hatteras. Little weak, but better run.

Icon was trying to bring it back too...its like on its 3rd resseructuon

Anyone who buys into a suppressed solution more than 5 days out has a very short memory. I'm not implying I think odds are high but I would absolutely not be surprised if that wave works out in some fashion around here. This kind of busy flow really kills accuracy beyond D4 on the ops. The fact that they are jumping around should be completely expected and not a sign of models suck

[Ralph Wiggum]

Maybe we somehow can get the AK PV to sort of roll over and displace near the Aleutians? Time that with the ridging near the NAO, the PNA spike, and have that feature pump heights into the EPO domain. Just looking for possibilities. Of course 10 days+ out, things could collapse and go opposite etc. There is some confidence beginning to build in the LR and I like how they are 'hints' and not some in your face epic look that will undoubtedly fall apart.

[BristowWx]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Anyone who buys into a suppressed solution more than 5 days out has a very short memory. I'm not implying I think odds are high but I would absolutely not be surprised if that wave works out in some fashion around here. This kind of busy flow really kills accuracy beyond D4 on the ops. The fact that they are jumping around should be completely expected and not a sign of models suck

And the issue of suppression doesn’t come up that often that we have to worry about it.  I listen when you say stuff. 

[WxUSAF]

I’ll just say that if the pattern is as active as the gfs suggests, with a predominant pattern of shortwaves passing south of us, and we can’t score at least once at peak climo...this winter will really live in infamy.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, BristowWx said:

And the issue of suppression doesn’t come up that often that we have to worry about it.  I listen when you say stuff. 

The setup could easily provide a suppressed/sheared final result so I'm not ruling anything out (I'm sure you know this already). How many times have we seen a steady march from suppressed to even too far north from D4 inwards? Too many times to count? At least a couple times a year? If there was a stout -AO and/or -NAO then a suppressed solution comes much easier. We don't have either so small differences in timing result in large differences in the solutions. I'm kinda jaded this year and it feels like the entire atmosphere is working against us but the atmosphere is like the stock market. Incredibly unpredictable the further you go out in time. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll just say that if the pattern is as active as the gfs suggests, with a predominant pattern of shortwaves passing south of us, and we can’t score at least once at peak climo...this winter will really live in infamy.

Shame it's the op. Hopefully the ens can support it at least a bit. The HL look alone is somewhat drool worthy. But we have been so starved of any HL blocking that anything looks good. It's like a drooling rabid dog that hasn't seen a meal in a week.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This could work down the road. Just starting to get the cold air source reloaded too. Like PSU said, need the AK vort to loosen its grip a bit. Thinking a bit farther along is where the key period lies. Might not reflect on the op but I like where we might be headed in Feb. 

That’s a legit -NAO there. That look works. An AK vortex can be overcome in February with shortening wavelengths and a colder overall hemispheric profile if you get NAO side blocking. We simply can’t overcome lower heights on both the epo and NAO side simultaneously. 

Right now guidance ageees on weakening the PV and elongating it. That would lower its ability to be simultaneously impacting both epo/NAO domains. But guidance is undecided where the PV ends up. The geps favors it shifting into the NAO side and popping an epo ridge. The eps and gefs is split between that look right there or what the geps says. I don’t care. Either is better that what we got now. Just weaken the PV and get either some epo or NAO ridging and lets roll with that. At least we would have a real shot in either of those scenarios. 

[Bob Chill]

GFS is entertaining AF. No idea if it's within the envelope or way out on a tangent but if things go down similar to the GFS it's going to be really fun around here. At least in the tracking department. The shoveling dept is TBD. 

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was an “or”. Roll with the unpredictability. Maybe my perception is wrong, and if so I apologize, but for several years now you “seem” to really obsess over trying to find predictability to our snowfall chances. Beyond a week or so that’s difficult. We all want that. But it’s just not realistic at long range. 
Truth is we get a few great years time to time but any given year has a higher chance to suck than be good.  Basically I always expect it to suck...I don’t expect snow, and then whenever it comes I appreciate the hell out of it. Less stress that way. 

Ya I dont get this dude. We might on the average get 4 days a year where heavy snow falls. He might need to move

Alright, alright...I know that was in response to what I said yesterday...so I can respect the counter-jab...lol Hello pot, I'm kettle

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anyone who buys into a suppressed solution more than 5 days out has a very short memory. I'm not implying I think odds are high but I would absolutely not be surprised if that wave works out in some fashion around here. This kind of busy flow really kills accuracy beyond D4 on the ops. The fact that they are jumping around should be completely expected and not a sign of models suck

Agree with all this...it’s not high probability but it’s still the best look we’ve had in a while. Low bar. 

I know what you were trying to do with that last part...well played. Won’t matter though. Next time an op run shifts some day 6 feature 13 miles that post is coming like clockwork. If only our snow was that reliable. 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll just say that if the pattern is as active as the gfs suggests, with a predominant pattern of shortwaves passing south of us, and we can’t score at least once at peak climo...this winter will really live in infamy.

Yeah I mean...and perhaps this is overly simplistic...but I see all those waves as dice. So say there's like 5 waves...if we can't get at least 1/5, then that's bad even for us, lol You'd have to imagine something would time up somewhere...but we shall see.