Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The gfs had a great track and it was still rain....in western maryland

With a +AO and a ++EPO, its difficult if not impossible to get any deep cold down this far. There is a reason we are seeing meager snowfall probs on the means, and op run after op run with "good track" coastal rainers. Marginal cold might do it with a strong  enough low,  a perfect track, and some luck for inland areas, but a frozen outcome will be very difficult for the lowlands. The stubborn AK vortex seems to weaken some on the means in the LR, and there are signs of the NAO going at least neutral towards day 15. Probably still 10 days away from a potentially more favorable pattern- one that can transport legit cold into our region.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Superbowl weekend GEFS is a bit slower but also a little farther off the coast, farther S with the ULL, and colder than the GFS op implies. Probably doesnt mean a whole lot 200 hours out and we know the preceding storm(s) or lack thereof will affect this one. But for purposes of my morning coffee I am glancing ahead if for no other reason than kicks and giggles.

Still maintaining my thoughts on an evolution to a better (brief?) Atl side with winter storm potential between the 6th and the 13th give or take a day either side. NAO ridging continues showing up on many of the ens with a positive PNA, active stj undercutting the PNA, and just enough cold air around. I think what allows the NAO to build if only for a brief period is the relax of the Hudson Bay PV over into AK allowing for the weaker remaining lobe of the PV to be pushed around. Sucks we cant seem to get both sides (Pac/Atl) to coincide a bit better but it is what it is. As we get later into the season I expect more HL blockiness to develop near the NAO as the weakening PV will be allowed to get displaced with more ease. If we can get the EPO to pop in tandem that is a look I would embrace. Last pic is the GEFS ens mean showing the NAO ridge which the EPS was implying as well during this period.

GFS op:

GEFS:

GEFS mean east basedNAO/N Atl ridge:

[Ji]

Too weak. The cold is gone by then. If it’s not the first wave next week after that it probably has to be a perfect track bomb with a perfect track upper low to work. Unlikely but that’s just how it is. 

The 00z euro showed how lucky we need to be. Gave sw VA 30 inches of snow with a superstorm and perfect ull low placement. Rain for us lol . It will take a miracle. The demise of the bob chill storm was catastrophic as that was easily out best setup of the year

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

The 00z euro showed how lucky we need to be. Gave sw VA 30 inches of snow with a superstorm and perfect ull low placement. Rain for us lol . It will take a miracle. The demise of the bob chill storm was catastrophic as that was easily out best setup of the year

 

Arent they all the best setups 7+ days out? Probably why the period I'm looking at will end up a heap of gasoline soaked newspapers in a dumpster with @WxWatcher007 standing next to it with a lit match.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

The 00z euro showed how lucky we need to be. Gave sw VA 30 inches of snow with a superstorm and perfect ull low placement. Rain for us lol . It will take a miracle. The demise of the bob chill storm was catastrophic as that was easily out best setup of the year

 

It was perfect if there was cold and confluence in front. A 1993 type storm won’t work because there is no arctic air here. 1993 had a direct discharge of cross polar flow.  If the upper low closes off too soon and the low bombs while it’s still to our west (even if way south of us) the southerly flow up the east coast will wreck any chance of frozen. We would need the upper energy to phase and cut off near western NC not Mississippi and we need the surface low to start to bomb in NC not the gulf coast. It has to be exactly perfect. 

[psuhoffman]

@Ralph Wiggum there is a risk to how the pattern is evolving though. If the Hudson ridge translates east but doesn’t effect the NAO enough...the pac ridge will pull back and the AK vortex will dump a trough in the west and we will be back to an Uber eastern ridge. 

I get what you’re doing, lemonade and all...but a 2 day transient ridge through the southern NAO space is statistically unlikely to produce. We typically need to spend a long time in a good pattern with multiple chances to get one hit. We have a high fail rate even when things look good. A 2 day window with a mediocre look isn’t a great bet. But sometimes you get lucky and you’re not wrong.  

But what I’m saying is if we want a legitimate chance to change our odds we need one of 2 things.  If we really simplify this every snowy pattern DC has had in the last 20 years was accompanied by either legit NAO blocking or a legit epo ridge.  We either need the AK vortex to scram so the pac ridge can build into the epo or we need a legit NAO block.  Not some transient weak ridge.  Otherwise so long as we lack either we will keep swapping one problem for another.  

 

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

You forgot this part lol

 

Ha ha yea, the true impact was way further North, simply trying to cheer myself up. 

Until the vortex weakens and the NAM state changes I would into  any snow solution for us. 

Might be near Feb 20th that there is a chance into March, otherwise more of the same.  

Too many issues in the overall NH pattern.

The seasonal models months ago continue to have correctly forecasted the NAM state and the lack of any significant NAO blocking.  

All we can hope is a very, very back loaded winter.  The  previous record + IOD , along with other issues are really taking time to resolve.  

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ralph Wiggum there is a risk to how the pattern is evolving though. If the Hudson ridge translates east but doesn’t effect the NAO enough...the pac ridge will pull back and the AK vortex will dump a trough in the west and we will be back to an Uber eastern ridge. 

I get what you’re doing, lemonade and all...but a 2 day transient ridge through the southern NAO space is statistically unlikely to produce. We typically need to spend a long time in a good pattern with multiple chances to get one hit. We have a high fail rate even when things look good. A 2 day window with a mediocre look isn’t a great bet. But sometimes you get lucky and you’re not wrong.  

But what I’m saying is if we want a legitimate chance to change our odds we need one of 2 things.  If we really simplify this every snowy pattern DC has had in the last 20 years was accompanied by either legit NAO blocking or a legit epo ridge.  We either need the AK vortex to scram so the pac ridge can build into the epo or we need a legit NAO block.  Not some transient weak ridge.  Otherwise so long as we lack either we will keep swapping one problem for another.  

 

 

What we are stuck with for now is a pure Pacific air mass. Looking at the 0z EPS, around Feb 3rd-4th there are indications of a somewhat colder regime building into our source region. The AK vortex is weakened but still there, so the flow of air is still largely off  the Pac, but there is also some cross polar flow depicted at that time related to the TPV position. Guidance also has the NAO  trending neutral around  this time. Upshot is the super positive 850 temp anomalies over much of Canada weaken and get replaced with slightly negative anomalies, and some of that "moderate" cold heads SE. Until that occurs, I think we are likely looking at a very low probability of a widespread winter storm, outside of the highlands.

eta- CFS still depicting a +PNA then a developing -EPO heading into mid Feb. So hopefully we see more significant indications of this at the end of the global ens runs the next few cycles. GEPS is there already at D15. Maybe it will actually materialize this time.

[StantonParkHoya]

I'd rather have an early spring than white rain on pavement in March

[Ralph Wiggum]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 Otherwise so long as we lack either we will keep swapping one problem for another.  

 

Precisely what I've been saying since Dec 1 which was essentially a carryover observation from last year: we cannot find a way to get both the respective  Pac and Atl sides to cooperate in tandem. One of these days...maybe.

[Bob Chill]

Seeing good tracks with no cold during prime climo is a giant billboard highlighting what our consistent problem has been the last 5-6 weeks. It's just one of those years where we can't buy a real winter airmass. 2-3 day cold shot in a progressive pattern carries low probabilities of frozen precip. I'd like to think the busy flow off the Pac creates an opportunity to combine enough cold with enough precip. Still very possible but ops are highlighting the constant risk we've been dealing with for quite a while now. 

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

What we are stuck with for now is a pure Pacific air mass. Looking at the 0z EPS, around Feb 3rd-4th there are indications of a somewhat colder regime building into our source region. The AK vortex is weakened but still there, so the flow of air is still largely off  the Pac, but there is also some cross polar flow depicted at that time related to the TPV position. Guidance also has the NAO  trending neutral around  this time. Upshot is the super positive 850 temp anomalies over much of Canada weaken and get replaced with slightly negative anomalies, and some of that "moderate" cold heads SE. Until that occurs, I think we are likely looking at a very low probability of a widespread winter storm, outside of the highlands.

eta- CFS still depicting a +PNA then a developing -EPO heading into mid Feb. So hopefully we see more significant indications of this at the end of the global ens runs the next few cycles. GEPS is there already at D15. Maybe it will actually materialize this time.

Agree with all of this...there are varying options where that look day 15 could progress.  

If the AK vortex remains we need the NAO to tank. Otherwise as wavelengths shorten a trough will dump into the west and it’s game over.   Slightly more likely path is get the AK vortex to slide east and an epo ridge.  The fail is if both the NAO and AK vortexes remain once the Hudson ridge breaks we see the trough pull back into the west and the east ridges. 

One positive sign is across guidance the PV is weakening some towards the end.  But it disagrees where is situated so some favors some NAO ridging while other guidance develops an epo ridge and keeps the NAO +++  but we don’t neee both.  As long as one of the two sides up top flips we can work with that so seeing the vague spread up there isn’t as bad as it looks because within that spread most guidance develops some ridging on either the epo or NAO side and either works.  

 

[87storms]

56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Precisely what I've been saying since Dec 1 which was essentially a carryover observation from last year: we cannot find a way to get both the respective  Pac and Atl sides to cooperate in tandem. One of these days...maybe.

this year has been a lot like last year up to this point, but last year we had enough events to get lucky with cold air timing.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Precisely what I've been saying since Dec 1 which was essentially a carryover observation from last year: we cannot find a way to get both the respective  Pac and Atl sides to cooperate in tandem. One of these days...maybe.

 

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

this year has been a lot like last year up to this point, but last year we had enough events to get lucky with cold air timing.

Last year we we often had one side hostile at a time, this year both sides have been hostile a good percentage of time.  

To simplify it what went wrong last year was we had some very minimal ridging up top but never developed the extreme blocking advertised. What we got this year was what last year would look like with a raging ++++ AO/NAO instead of neutral to mildly positive.   My mistake was I expected a similar pac but perhaps with slightly more blocking. Instead we got way less...

[Maestrobjwa]

35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Seeing good tracks with no cold during prime climo is a giant billboard highlighting what our consistent problem has been the last 5-6 weeks. It's just one of those years where we can't buy a real winter airmass. 2-3 day cold shot in a progressive pattern carries low probabilities of frozen precip. I'd like to think the busy flow off the Pac creates an opportunity to combine enough cold with enough precip. Still very possible but ops are highlighting the constant risk we've been dealing with for quite a while now. 

And yet when we had cold air masses during the two dreadful la nina years....suppression and snowhole, smh Mercy...I'm telling ya, if we cannot overcome this this year (or get lucky with a perfect track coastal bomb) and score at least once, this will go down as the worst 4-year stretch of winter we've had since that period between 1988 and 1992, smh We don't have to snow every year...but in a 4 year span we always manage to score at least once or twice among all the chaos. We have got to find a way this year...

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet when we had cold air masses during the two dreadful la nina years....suppression and snowhole, smh Mercy...I'm telling ya, if we cannot overcome this this year (or get lucky with a perfect track coastal bomb) and score at least once, this will go down as the worst 4-year stretch of winter we've had since that period between 1988 and 1992, smh We don't have to snow every year...but in a 4 year span we always manage to score at least once or twice among all the chaos. We have got to find a way this year...

Last year wasn’t a bad winter. I’m speaking of course here. Not for me to pass judgement on any other locale.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Last year wasn’t a bad winter. I’m speaking of course here. Not for me to pass judgement on any other locale.

Up here we only got 4.8 inches...that was basically a dc/nova jackpot. I mean, we had some nice "scenery" snow...but the fact remains for all of us that we've only gotten to pull out a shovel one time since 2016 (so far)

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Up here we only got 4.8 inches...that was basically a dc/nova jackpot. I mean, we had some nice "scenery" snow...but the fact remains for all of us that we've only gotten to pull out a shovel one time since 2016 (so far)

That’s what I’m trying to explain to you. We had three snow events last year here that exceeded 6” (if memory serves). November, early January, and one late, I think late Feb. So yeah, I had to pull out my shovel.We also had a few small events and a decent ice storm. We also had about a 6” snow in March of 2017 and another in March of 2018.  It was pretty good IMO. But like I said, location matters.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet when we had cold air masses during the two dreadful la nina years....suppression and snowhole, smh Mercy...I'm telling ya, if we cannot overcome this this year (or get lucky with a perfect track coastal bomb) and score at least once, this will go down as the worst 4-year stretch of winter we've had since that period between 1988 and 1992, smh We don't have to snow every year...but in a 4 year span we always manage to score at least once or twice among all the chaos. We have got to find a way this year...

I suggest you reset expectations. Your using a numerical anomaly to convince yourself we won’t fail. That very short term trend of storm frequency is just a random anomaly within a larger set of random chaos. Trust me I’ve done the actual statistical analysts and yes at the start of any given stretch the longer you go the less likely you don’t get snow...because at any given time there is a chance of snow, but once you are years into a snow drought the odds of breaking it are no better each year over the long term.  We have had 4 years in a row above normal.  We have had 8 years in a row with little to no snow.  

Besides...if it snows it will melt and be gone and so by spring so what we should be over it. Maybe we get a big snow next December. It will snow again. Sucks to have to wait but since we don’t have any control I suggest you relax and just roll with it. Or move somewhere it snows more regularly.   

[aldie 22]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s what I’m trying to explain to you. We had three snow events last year here that exceeded 6” (if memory serves). November, early January, and one late, I think late Feb. So yeah, I had to pull out my shovel.We also had a few small events and a decent ice storm. We also had about a 6” snow in March of 2017 and another in March of 2018.  It was pretty good IMO. But like I said, location matters.

My signature shows the events from last year for Leesburg. Definitely a few times with the shovel although one famous Leesburg resident said we didn't get snow last year

[WVclimo]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Up here we only got 4.8 inches...that was basically a dc/nova jackpot. I mean, we had some nice "scenery" snow...but the fact remains for all of us that we've only gotten to pull out a shovel one time since 2016 (so far)

Holy smoke !  Did the city really get screwed that badly last winter ?  I see BWI reported 18.3".  I had 37" here which might be the biggest discrepancy I can recall between here and Baltimore, if your total was really that low.

[HighStakes]

Just now, WVclimo said:

Holy smoke !  Did the city really get screwed that badly last winter ?  I see BWI reported 18.3".  I had 37" here which might be the biggest discrepancy I can recall between here and Baltimore, if your total was really that low.

He must be talking about the January storm alone. No way 4.8 was the seasonal total. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I suggest you reset expectations. Your using a numerical anomaly to convince yourself we won’t fail. That very short term trend of storm frequency is just a random anomaly within a larger set of random chaos. Trust me I’ve done the actual statistical analysts and yes at the start of any given stretch the longer you go the less likely you don’t get snow...because at any given time there is a chance of snow, but once you are years into a snow drought the odds of breaking it are no better each year over the long term.  We have had 4 years in a row above normal.  We have had 8 years in a row with little to no snow.  

Besides...if it snows it will melt and be gone and so by spring so what we should be over it. Maybe we get a big snow next December. It will snow again. Sucks to have to wait but since we don’t have any control I suggest you relax and just roll with it. Or move somewhere it snows more regularly.   

I'm not trying to "convince" myself of anything...stop accusing me of denying reality. I've said over and over again that the trend could break anytime. Yes I'm hoping it doesn't...sure I guess we've been fortunate to be able to time it with a watch the last 27 years. But I am NOT trying to deny reality. And no, I cannot move somewhere else...that option isn't possible or feasible at this juncture.

I was just making a general wish that we find a way to make it work...not because of numerics or reality denial, but because 4 years in a row would just be awful. (And I'm dreading the drought going longer. We've gotten away from la nina, but still ain't been able to get things right or get a mod nino (mercy how rare are those anyway? Once a decade???)

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Holy smoke !  Did the city really get screwed that badly last winter ?  I see BWI reported 18.3".  I had 37" here which might be the biggest discrepancy I can recall between here and Baltimore, if your total was really that low.

Ah, my apologies: I meant to say we only got 4.8 from that January system that gave DC a foot. 18.3" for the year is correct.

[WVclimo]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah, my apologies: I meant to say we only got 4.8 from that January system that gave DC a foot. 18.3" for the year is correct.

OK, cool.  Guess I should read more carefully when I am supposed to be working, lol.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

He must be talking about the January storm alone. No way 4.8 was the seasonal total. 

Yeah I was

[North Balti Zen]

5 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Holy smoke !  Did the city really get screwed that badly last winter ?  I see BWI reported 18.3".  I had 37" here which might be the biggest discrepancy I can recall between here and Baltimore, if your total was really that low.

It wasn't a good year, the "surprise" January storm that was 10-12" from DC West petered out up here around 5 inches, and we came up too north or south to really cash in on every other system. Baltimore proper has been a bit of snow loser in the area since it cashed all its chips in four years ago in the January 2016 storm/blizzard thing.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

OK, cool.  Guess I should read more carefully when I am supposed to be working, lol.

Nah wasn't your fault, I wasn't specific, lol

[jaydreb]

The Bob Chill storm looks much different at 12z GFS vs 6z.  A little closer.  

[ryanconway63]

GFS looks a bit different