Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 OMG! The 18z GFS just nailed the next 12 days and we're screwed! No reason to look at models anymore cuz it's over. Unless you dig into the ensembles for a better picture of possibilities This is one busiest ens runs inside of 10 days we've had all year. Perfectly illustrates that multiple waves and progressive flow is causing havoc on NWP. The 30th through Feb 4th is a very large window with MASSIVE spread in sensible wx outcomes. I predict wild swings on ops every 6 hours for the rest of the week. Ji might need rx meds to get him through the week. Either way he'll require daily group counseling in this thread. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 32 minutes ago, Ji said: Total snow so far on 18z gfs... The 0.1 line is pretty close to you dude, enjoy what you get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: Total snow so far on 18z gfs... Damn! Shenandoah Valley bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 That is most definitely NOT a Shenandoah Valley "bullseye." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, benjammin said: That is most definitely NOT a Shenandoah Valley "bullseye." That’s a jonjon bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I don't care what anyone else says, I am viewing HM's post in the context that we are getting a March blizzard this year. I mean why else would he post this, right . Who cares about the NAM state right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Is HM JB’s alter ego? Are they the same person? Asking for a friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 18z WB GEFS probability 3 inches or more. Still mostly in Day 10- 16 period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Plate tectonics will have shifted the apps to that spot. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Little bit more on the AAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: OMG! The 18z GFS just nailed the next 12 days and we're screwed! No reason to look at models anymore cuz it's over. Unless you dig into the ensembles for a better picture of possibilities This is one busiest ens runs inside of 10 days we've had all year. Perfectly illustrates that multiple waves and progressive flow is causing havoc on NWP. The 30th through Feb 4th is a very large window with MASSIVE spread in sensible wx outcomes. I predict wild swings on ops every 6 hours for the rest of the week. Ji might need rx meds to get him through the week. Either way he'll require daily group counseling in this thread. I don’t think Ji is the only one. Tensions are getting high around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 ICON slows down/amplifies wave 1 on Monday/Monday night more. Interested to see the effects if any this will have down the line. eta: GFS also slower with first wave monday/tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 GFS keeps finding ways to screw us over. Now, strong northern sw smashes the wave to the south. That wave wasn't there/that strong last run. Players on the field, game hasn't even started yet...keep hope alive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 GFS keeps finding ways to screw us over. Now, strong northern sw smashes the wave to the south. That wave wasn't there/that strong last run. Players on the field, game hasn't even started yet...keep hope aliveWhich player is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Which player is that The players not on a surface map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Well, we have two separate systems next week. One monday/monday night and one wednesday night/thursday. Still time for both of these imo. After that it's all completely up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Cmc has the Wednesdsy/Thursday system a bit stronger. Still slides it south of us but you can see how it could deliver for us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: GFS keeps finding ways to screw us over. Now, strong northern sw smashes the wave to the south. That wave wasn't there/that strong last run. Players on the field, game hasn't even started yet...keep hope alive Next month is the Superbowl, in Miami, and in Washington DC. A snowstorm will develop next month and once all those players get on the DC field of play, The Entire Mid Atlantic is gonna get totally annihilated by snow. It will be THE SUPERBOWL of snowstorms, and the Washington Metropolitan Region is gonna win BIG. Edit - Mods please feel free to delete this - I forgot it is the analysis topic, not the banter topic lol. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Pretty wild stuff euro smokin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Pretty wild stuff euro smokin Does that give us anything frozen? It looks pretty there but I assume it’s rain. Edit: I saw the precip panels. 975 south of us. Whatever it’s smoking it must be the good stuff. Not worth parsing the particulars at the surface but at first glance looks like an Apps pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Next month is the Superbowl, in Miami, and in Washington DC. A snowstorm will develop next month and once all those players get on the DC field of play, The Entire Mid Atlantic is gonna get totally annihilated by snow. It will be THE SUPERBOWL of snowstorms, and the Washington Metropolitan Region is gonna win BIG. Edit - Mods please feel free to delete this - I forgot it is the analysis topic, not the banter topic lol. Except you forgot about one factor that screws everything up and we get rained on. Dan Snyder is still at the helm and it's a nonWinterbowl.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 0Z EPS WB. Still chasing stars Day 10 plus. Even those odds don’t look so hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 6z WB GEFS is worse. The snow shield is strengthening over DC proper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 12 hours ago, frd said: I don't care what anyone else says, I am viewing HM's post in the context that we are getting a March blizzard this year. I mean why else would he post this, right . Who cares about the NAM state right now. You forgot this part lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation. Agreed....that is why I keep saying that we need a little luck. But also remember close only counts when playing horseshoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.The gfs had a great track and it was still rain....in western maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation. It’s not no hope. But people should realize the most likely outcome is a suppressed wave next week while we have the 50/50 because the ridge in Canada is a bit too far southeast. Then once the 50/50 vacates the most likely result is rain. This setup is better but still flawed. But there is enough space something could amplify enough next week just not likely. After that to make the early Feb storm work, because there is ridging ahead of it and nothing to hold cold in, we need the upper low to dive in through say TN/KY and cut off over VA not down south. The cut off south of us slows the system and blasts warm air up the east coast ahead of it. We’re back to needing the perfect upper low track with that. However this time some guidance is way further south with that and they almost always correct north so it’s not as hopeless as the last setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation. The gfs had a great track and it was still rain....in western maryland Too weak. The cold is gone by then. If it’s not the first wave next week after that it probably has to be a perfect track bomb with a perfect track upper low to work. Unlikely but that’s just how it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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