stormtracker Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:37 PM, psuhoffman said: LOL...988 in eastern NC, 967 east of Ocean City, 954 off NJ...and we rain. If that actually happens all the bunnies better be hiding... Expand Agree. Despite what it shows verbatim, I liked the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 This is how we do rainstorms now...lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:17 PM, psuhoffman said: this could work on the GFS...the lead wave is squashed but the NS wave that squashed it has amplified enough to leave a lot of cold air and still a decent amount of confluence to our north leading into the next wave...we will see. I shouldn't predict how a run is going to go...never ends well. Expand it didnt end well unless your 40 N smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:41 PM, stormtracker said: Agree. Despite what it shows verbatim, I liked the run. Expand I will say this...I never look at the surface long range until last...if at all...and looking at the upper levels everything went exactly the way i wanted to see...then I looked at the surface and was like...WTF... but its 10 days away so who cares. But I do seriously doubt if we get a 967 low off Ocean City on Feb 1 we rain. The airmass leading in isnt that bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:41 PM, stormtracker said: Agree. Despite what it shows verbatim, I liked the run. Expand dont like it--i prefer the sure 4-8 inches from the chill storm than the 1-2 inches from the trailing that storm that has a 5% chance of giving us 1-2 feet....at least in this winteer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:43 PM, psuhoffman said: I will say this...I never look at the surface long range until last...if at all...and looking at the upper levels everything went exactly the way i wanted to see...then I looked at the surface and was like...WTF... but its 10 days away so who cares. But I do seriously doubt if we get a 967 low off Ocean City on Feb 1 we rain. The airmass leading in isnt that bad. Expand can you imagine getting rain from this during peak climo--- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:43 PM, Ji said: dont like it--i prefer the sure 4-8 inches from the chill storm than the 1-2 inches from the trailing that storm that has a 5% chance of giving us 1-2 feet....at least in this winteer Expand I agree...but right now that lead wave has very little upper level support and its running into a wall of supression. It has very little chance unless we see some significant changes. Those can still happen its 6 days away. WRT the more amplified day 9/10 option...that GFS solution showed how it can work...just need the thermals to be a couple degrees colder from day 10. That isn't a big adjustment. The track is perfect. The whole setup will likely undergo significant alterations by then. If one of those is "colder" we could do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:46 PM, Ji said: can you imagine getting rain from this during peak climo--- Expand I don't buy it... I doubt that is exactly what the H5 will look like...but if it is...we should do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:47 PM, psuhoffman said: I agree...but right now that lead wave has very little upper level support and its running into a wall of supression. It has very little chance unless we see some significant changes. Those can still happen its 6 days away. WRT the more amplified day 9/10 option...that GFS solution showed how it can work...just need the thermals to be a couple degrees colder from day 10. That isn't a big adjustment. The track is perfect. The whole setup will likely undergo significant alterations by then. If one of those is "colder" we could do well. Expand yea...one problem i see with this map---is the 50/50 drifted too far east.....i mean we are trying to do a 1993 type storm without any blocking but i think 1993 didnt have blocking either right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 It’s really is a shame that so many people went cliff diving already. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:41 PM, psuhoffman said: This is how we do rainstorms now...lol Expand Realistically that is probably our first best shot at some frozen imo. I liked what I saw on the means this morning, and why I highlighted that period. Could very well end up another rainer ofc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:49 PM, Ji said: yea...one problem i see with this map---is the 50/50 drifted too far east.....i mean we are trying to do a 1993 type storm without any blocking but i think 1993 didnt have blocking either right? Expand no 1993 was one of the rare examples of a full latitude western coupled PNA/EPO ridge and a full latitude eastern N AMerican Trough that worked out. Got enough of the trough to concentrate and bomb a storm. This isn't quite that because there is a blocking ridge in Canada...kind of a mini mid latitude version I guess. The 50/50 has to vacate as the trough amplifies or else the storm cannot turn the corner. Actually one of the issues here (and this is good because its likely a GFS over amplified bias issue) is how the upper low cuts off and digs so far south...that slows the system down and leaves us with a southerly flow ahead of it for too long...it destroys the airmass and then we don't recover in time. If that upper low was a little more progressive and cuts off over TN instead of along the gulf coast its a win for us. I wasnt trying to dig too deep into analysis of a day 9 storm on an op run though...but actually if we assume the upper low isnt going to cut off down south of Atlanta like that...its probably a snowier outcome for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:51 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Realistically that is probably the first best shot at some frozen imo. I liked what I saw on the means this morning, and why I highlighted that period. Could very well end up another rainer ofc. Expand Yea you are right... my post earlier was just trying to highlight why I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 5:00 PM, psuhoffman said: Yea you are right... my post earlier was just trying to highlight why I agree with you. Expand Hopefully there are some better trends with next week's wave(s). Squash city for now. Would be a simple way to get a decent event with just enough cold air around and a modest wave tracking underneath, but it's never that simple lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 4:43 PM, psuhoffman said: I will say this...I never look at the surface long range until last...if at all...and looking at the upper levels everything went exactly the way i wanted to see...then I looked at the surface and was like...WTF... but its 10 days away so who cares. But I do seriously doubt if we get a 967 low off Ocean City on Feb 1 we rain. The airmass leading in isnt that bad. Expand Agreed. I actually prefer to back into a snow event via trends rather than have a HECS shown and start stepping back. Guess it reduces the heartbreak when op expectations are lower lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Alright HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 12z GEFS on board for some sort of Super Bowl Sunday storm. Most members have some version of it - some are snow, some are rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Wheres our map from the GEFS with probabilities of more than 3 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 5:36 PM, Chris78 said: Wheres our map from the GEFS with probabilities of more than 3 inches? Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I'm sure if we had the ability to draw it up things may look quite a bit different....but for now, this will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 @psuhoffman, not to overanalyze a 10 day deterministic GFS run, but concerning the rain we get from that bombing storm the first couple days of February...could part of that be due to the shortwave/low just north of the Lakes, messing up the thermals for us? I do see that the high and 50/50 move out more rapidly than we'd like too, which I think was mentioned as well. Regardless, that is quite a nice setup which I'm sure will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 5:55 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: @psuhoffman, not to overanalyze a 10 day deterministic GFS run, but concerning the rain we get from that bombing storm the first couple days of February...could part of that be due to the shortwave/low just north of the Lakes, messing up the thermals for us? I do see that the high and 50/50 move out more rapidly than we'd like too, which I think was mentioned as well. Regardless, that is quite a nice setup which I'm sure will change. Expand Would rather see it that way now whether than watch it erode run after run. We have been burnt so many times when we had a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 5:44 PM, poolz1 said: I'm sure if we had the ability to draw it up things may look quite a bit different....but for now, this will do Expand Maybe a regime change near Alaska down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 5:43 PM, jaydreb said: Expand Models don’t factor in luck, good or bad. At least something to track over the next week has not gone &$@$”@&$ yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Well, Euro is different vs 0z. Not sure bad or good yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I'm intrigued with how guidance is now squashing the d6-7 wave. Considering how winter has gone start to finish it would be fair to expect the squashed solution to relax as we move through the medium range. If it never happens then it's a sure sign that things are changing. Can't think of a single wave that trended south/squashed/colder from D5 on in. Might be forgetting something but overall all waves in the midwest have ended up being norther/warmer/rainier at game time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 6:34 PM, Bob Chill said: I'm intrigued with how guidance is now squashing the d6-7 wave. Considering how winter has gone start to finish it would be fair to expect the squashed solution to relax as we move through the medium range. If it never happens then it's a sure sign that things are changing. Can't think of a single wave that trended south/squashed/colder from D5 on in. Might be forgetting something but overall all waves in the midwest have ended up being norther/warmer/rainier at game time. Expand this ULL for this weekend storm was once in Virginia for 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 6:34 PM, Bob Chill said: I'm intrigued with how guidance is now squashing the d6-7 wave. Considering how winter has gone start to finish it would be fair to expect the squashed solution to relax as we move through the medium range. If it never happens then it's a sure sign that things are changing. Can't think of a single wave that trended south/squashed/colder from D5 on in. Might be forgetting something but overall all waves in the midwest have ended up being norther/warmer/rainier at game time. Expand except when it has a chance to give us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/23/2020 at 6:44 PM, Ji said: this ULL for this weekend storm was once in Virginia for 12z Sat Expand And that is a typical model bias, more so with gfs and particularly with any thing related to the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Great low track in normal circumstances for the board. Would love to take my chances on that if it came to fruition. Eastern NY wiped off the map lmao. The banding would be crazy verbatim 12z GFS. This season we obv all know to tread very lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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