Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 40% chance of 3 inches of snow 8 or 9 days out. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 In an overall mediocre pattern, this is a workable set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Way out there, but this is not too bad for the first week of Feb. Not spectacular, but ok for a long lead and esp given the minuscule chances for snow we have been seeing/continue to see on guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 In an overall mediocre pattern, this is a workable set up.The fetus block 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 If the 6z GFS was to verify I would never doubt atmospheric memory again. It would be a historic few weeks for the Great Lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 @Ji How about the 0z euro contol? 3 events and 1 big one. How about the 6z control? Incoming event just beyond hr144 The way I see it is if we actually go get 3 chances that are mostly driven by a +pna then one is prob going to work out. No guarantees in this dumb game of course. The upcoming chances appear to be better set up than any jacked up chance we've had. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji How about the 0z euro contol? 3 events and 1 big one. How about the 6z control? Incoming event just beyond hr144 The way I see it is if we actually go get 3 chances that are mostly driven by a +pna then one is prob going to work out. No guarantees in this dumb game of course. The upcoming chances appear to be better set up than any jacked up chance we've had. Matter of time before the Control scores a huge one. Seriously though, it has been rather close in terms of storm windows and threats, only issue was the warmer profiles so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 @poolz1 Might be looking at a displacement event coming up in mid to late Feb. And, how about that , close to the vortex vacillation date of the 20th. May work in tandem with the STJ ,and be an additional player in a somewhat improved overall pattern by that time. I believe the GloSea5 does well in this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, frd said: Matter of time before the Control scores a huge one. Seriously though, it has been rather close in terms of storm windows and threats, only issue was the warmer profiles so far this winter. I'm just looking at it the same way I look at the gfs beyond d7. Gives you a general idea of possibilities without having to slice and dice all the ens panels. EPS agrees that potential activity increases as we move into Feb. Seeing the gfs and euro control advertising similar setups is a step above completely random shotgun chance. We'll see how it goes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm just looking at it the same way I look at the gfs beyond d7. Exactly, and by all means, another tool to add to provide a better idea of the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Here's the visual. Muli param 6z control and h5 anom @ hr144. This is an incoming snow event for sure. 0z Icon was amped up. Euro control is more sheared but provides much more wiggle room imo The building PNA ridge on the heels and atl confluence in front is a classic progressive setup for the MA. The slower amped solutions introduce to many potential problems. A quick sheared cold hit is preferred over gunning for a miller A. Not that what I think means a damn thing. I just prefer the easy road at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The building PNA ridge on the heels and atl confluence in front is a classic progressive setup for the MA. The slower amped solutions introduce to many potential problems. A quick sheared cold hit is preferred over gunning for a miller A. Not that what I think means a damn thing. I just prefer the easy road at this point That would work, and make a lot of folks happy. And, the best part , as you mentioned, is that the active period continues well past this time of interest into Feb. And IMHO, it may remain active with the STJ as the more traditional Nino-ish background state exerts itself more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: In an overall mediocre pattern, this is a workable set up. 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji How about the 0z euro contol? 3 events and 1 big one. How about the 6z control? Incoming event just beyond hr144 The way I see it is if we actually go get 3 chances that are mostly driven by a +pna then one is prob going to work out. No guarantees in this dumb game of course. The upcoming chances appear to be better set up than any jacked up chance we've had. The day 7-10 period could work. The setup that gives us a shot is only 6 days out and across guidance. The subtle but important differences to the setup now for this weekends fail are clear. For both the AK vortex isn’t doing any favors. But right now that vortex near Baffin (that wasn’t supposed to be there from range) forced the ridge in Canada to slide way too far southeast The result as the system develops in the central US is the flow is straight out of the south everywhere east of the Mississippi. No resistance or confluence until well north. Combined with the pac flow feeding maritime air into the ridge from the west and it’s game, set, match. but the setup next week has more promise. @Bob Chilldid an excellent job picking this out before guidance lost then found the idea again. this time the virtex has vacated Baffin. The ridge has pulled back towards Hudson Bay, and the trough near 50/50 is holding the NW flow and confluence to our north. We still have the AK problem so this won’t be a cold pattern and ideally that ridge would be slightly further west but it gives us a fighting chance to be just cold enough. From there we are in the game but still need luck. The lead wave amplifying before the cold vacates would be best. If the lead wave fails to amplify then we need luck with the northern stream digging in. It would have to amplify far enough southeast or the storm either cuts or develops too late for us. The fail option would be a weak lead wave that is suppressed south and fails to amplify enough to hold in the NW flow to our north. The cold lifts out and wave 2 cuts. The win is either wave one amplifies before the confluence breaks down, or if it is the second wave we get the NS to dig in and phase just right. Option 1 is simpler. Option 2 is less likely but holds more upside. As always the fail option is most likely. We all know that. It’s our reality. But this had a better chance than most of the lottery level long shots this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Looking into Feb. it appears the MJO will be a plus, versus a negative. Still hopeful for opportunities. Really like to see an improvement in the NAM state. I would hope it starts to show up in the next couple weeks. from bluewave for those into the MJO: < It looks like the models are going for forcing in the MJO 6 and 1- 2 regions the next few weeks. So we’ll have to see what that combination looks like in the actual pattern. Plus the +AAM spike gets added to the mix. So a continuation of La Niña and El Niño influences which shows up in the split flow. > 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The win is either wave one amplifies before the confluence breaks down, or if it is the second wave we get the NS to dig in and phase just right. Option 1 is simpler. Option 2 is less likely but holds more upside. As always the fail option is most likely. We all know that. It’s our reality. But this had a better chance than most of the lottery level long shots this year. I think the 12z ICON just killed wave one, correct? And going for the northern stream phase at the end of its run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 There is some agreement beyond day 10 with where we go into February. Across all guidance there is consensus for a PNA driven +AO eastern trough pattern. Details differ at day 15 (as they always will) but the general longwave pattern is agreed upon. Doesn't make it right...but confidence in something at least similar to this is increasing imo. This is not the best look for snow...but it is way more workable than what we have had so far. The GEPS would be the coldest look...but also the least likely to produce a snowstorm probably. Clippers maybe...but while this is a cold look...true cross polar flow here...the trough axis is way too far east and historically a huge full latitude PNA/EPO coupled ridge is a cold/dry look in the eastern US. Way too hard to get something to amplify in that. Now some of the examples where something did manage to develop in that they can be huge storms. March 93 was an example...but 90% of the time that look ends in a cold dry period. The Euro is still hanging on to the AK vortex but has enough of a PNA ridge along the west coast to direct the trough into the east. This is not as cold...its not true cross polar flow...but that flow out of AK is good enough. That vortex there is going to be producing some pretty cold air near AK and getting some of that to eject into the eastern US will be cold enough in early February. This is not as cold as the GEPS but still plenty cold enough to get a snowstorm and the trough axis here is way more favorable. It's still not a look worthy of "its happening" but its a workable look. The GEFS might have the least cold but best look for a snowstorm. There is just enough flow from AK into the east to get enough cold...but that ridging over the top and in the southwest produces the best look to get a storm to amplify in the east. Ideally get that ridge a little north and pump the SW ridge a bit more and it becomes a classic look. The details wont be determined for a while...but if we can at least get the general ideas agreed upon across guidance February could be a lot more hospitable for snow than January was. Of course that is about as low a bar as possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I think the 12z ICON just killed wave one, correct? Everything is trending that way unfortunately... remember wave 1 is the one that 36 hours ago was cutting north of Green Bay. It has been trending weaker across all guidance lately. And it is running into a lot of suppressive flow. That ridge near Hudson is a double edged sword...it is going to force things south despite the raging +AO BUT the reason I would rather it be on the west shore of Hudson Bay is that would allow more room to amplify a system along the east coast WITHOUT needing the NS to dive in and phase. With that ridge where it is...I kinda fear without phasing a weak system will shear out or get suppressed south of us...and the risk with needing NS help is it could just as easily (more likely) phase too far west and cut the storm. But...if it does phase right...that option has big storm potential so there is that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I think the 12z ICON just killed wave one, correct? And going for the northern stream phase at the end of its run? Yea, got squished by the NS but setting up for an amplified storm after. Iterations of all these discrete features are going to cause quite a bit of run over run changes. We need to get one inside of 5 days before we can discuss anything specific. Anything beyond 5 days is prob a phantom. The ideas are plentiful but the most likely to be right idea hasn't shown up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, got squished by the NS but setting up for an amplified storm after. Iterations of all these discrete features are going to cause quite a bit of run over run changed. We need to get one inside of 5 days before we can discuss anything specific. Anything beyond 5 days is prob a phantom. The ideas are plentiful but the most likely to be right idea hasn't shown up yet. so basically it squashed the snowable storm....which leads to the evacuation of the cold air, for a the bigger raniier storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Ji said: so basically it squashed the snowable storm....which leads to the evacuation of the cold air, for a the bigger raniier storm Bring the precip. Cold doesn't matter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, got squished by the NS but setting up for an amplified storm after. Iterations of all these discrete features are going to cause quite a bit of run over run changes. We need to get one inside of 5 days before we can discuss anything specific. Anything beyond 5 days is prob a phantom. The ideas are plentiful but the most likely to be right idea hasn't shown up yet. Just now, Ji said: so basically it squashed the snowable storm....which leads to the evacuation of the cold air, for a the bigger raniier storm The ICON could still work out...it is much stronger with the confluence and it still has a decent amount of confluence and NW flow to our north at 180. Plus the northern stream is digging in pretty far east...not too far east to develop in time but far enough to make a hard cut unlikely imo. It actually is setting up for the win option number 2. But now we are extrapolating the 180 hour ICON...lol. Its forever out there...the bottom line remains there are realistic ways to win with this and that is way better than it's been most of this dumpster fire winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 @Ji @Bob Chill That little vort losetoa6 was talking about the other day as something to watch behind the weekend rain storm is going to suppress the lead STJ wave next week it looks like. It's there across guidance and its getting absorbed into the vortex left behind by the weekend rainstorm and suppressing the flow way too much the middle of next week. What we would need if that is the progression is for that wave to amplify enough to hold the confluence in to our north for the next wave coming, and there is a next wave...its a train coming at us...we just need to time one of these things up right...the goldilocks timing...close enough to an exiting NS wave to our northeast that cold has not vacated...but far enough back not to get squashed. OR...get the NS to phase just right...but we all know the complications with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 this could work on the GFS...the lead wave is squashed but the NS wave that squashed it has amplified enough to leave a lot of cold air and still a decent amount of confluence to our north leading into the next wave...we will see. I shouldn't predict how a run is going to go...never ends well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Made a post a little while back being a little more favorable about cold for Feb, given a variety of factors. I feel the Pac may become more conducive but mentioned the NAM state. I mentioned I was hoping we start to see some changes with the AO going more neutral and even negative during Feb. I do feel that is going to take a while. A few days back I think the EPS 46 had the AO positive into late Feb. Not sure the latest. I see this AM Furtado posted this. I imagine he is referring to having the blocking needed to secure a more longer lasting cold period. I think it is too early too worry about this. Maybe the blocking will arrive simply deeper into Feb. Other factors may compensate and help us with snow and cold opportunities, earlier in the month regardless of the NAM state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 regardless of where The 12z GFS ends...this is what I see in the setup.... The only thing that would make this REALLY good...would be if that Canadian ridge were centered further west...that is the one thing that could much this up...if that allows too much return flow ahead of the amplifying system...if the 50/50 departs too fast...that could mess it up...but there is a LOT to like on this setup. And getting that ridge to be a little further west isnt a huge adjustment either...it could trend that way. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 As a follow up from the Met GloSea5 model animation, here is the GFS. I give you this as consideration of a displacement event, but not a SSW. I feel a SSWE is very unlikely. However, ongoing down the road this might help induce a change in later Feb with the NAM state. Not sure what the latest is with heat flux, I know up to this point it has been meager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 GFS is a good run imo... verbatim its mostly rain but its a perfect upper and surface track... and its very close with temps...and that is going to be a problem no matter what in this pattern given the true cold air is locked up until we get towards day 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Looks good...now let’s get it to 5 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: GFS is a good run imo... verbatim its mostly rain but its a perfect upper and surface track... and its very close with temps...and that is going to be a problem no matter what in this pattern given the true cold air is locked up until we get towards day 15. I do like the SLP numbers lol... 950s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 LOL...988 in eastern NC, 967 east of Ocean City, 954 off NJ...and we rain. If that actually happens all the bunnies better be hiding... 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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