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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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53 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CFS still on-board for a general cold pattern beyond the first few days of Feb. Driven by a +PNA initially, then by the big EPO ridge we keep seeing advertised on LR guidance- that ultimately fails to materialize. Maybe it will this time. :weenie:

Seems like last winter we were constantly teased by -AO/-NAO looks in the long range that never materialized. This year it’s -EPO that hasn’t materialized. Well, it did in November and that was it.

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Wonder if we do achieve some sort of change with momentum displacement to 40 north and above, as Hugo mentions. A cold or colder March this year certainly 

seems like a possibility. Cold enough for snow in the Northern Mid Atlantic is the question though.  Latest EPS I saw a couple days ago keeps the EPO positive and the AO as well. , But maybe we can still achieve a change for the better  in the NAM  state later in Feb and in early March. 

  

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This year it’s -EPO that hasn’t materialized. Well, it did in November and that was it.

I bet for most areas the biggest negative temp departures from normal occurred during the deep - EPO of November.  That was some impressive cold for so early in the season. 

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ICON at 180 with a decent track for the chill storm. Hints of a possible favorable transfer to the coast. Mediocre cold; but cold nonetheless nearby. GFS has shown a cutter for a number of days now but it's ensembles are all up in the air as to whether this will be a cutter or more of a coastal solution. Will be interesting to see if it begins to come around to something a little more interesting for snow prospects. 

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The EPS is already kicking the can again...compared to the weeklies from Monday.

This was the weeklies run for what is now day 15 on last nights EPS...it was leading to that better pattern mid February there by already obviously moving the NAM state towards neutral and a developing EPO ridge...

EPSweeklies.thumb.png.e5e8511dea8ee1a4671ac76b1ff8149f.png

but as usual as we get a day closer look what is happening...the NAM state is still strongly positive now for the same time and the EPO ridge is being shunted south of the EPO domain by the strong Vortex.  This has happened again and again.  

Day16eps.thumb.png.06c3ee31d5716d424b7f7520d7d741d2.png

 

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The EPS is already kicking the can again...compared to the weeklies from Monday.

This was the weeklies run for what is now day 15 on last nights EPS...it was leading to that better pattern mid February there by already obviously moving the NAM state towards neutral and a developing EPO ridge...

EPSweeklies.thumb.png.e5e8511dea8ee1a4671ac76b1ff8149f.png

but as usual as we get a day closer look what is happening...the NAM state is still strongly positive now for the same time and the EPO ridge is being shunted south of the EPO domain by the strong Vortex.  This has happened again and again.  

Day16eps.thumb.png.06c3ee31d5716d424b7f7520d7d741d2.png

 

Yeah I'm starting to think long range looks are getting pointless to look at, lol It's becoming increasingly clear that we are gonna have to pray for a bit of fortune in perfect timing during a very transient window...obviously the looks up top ain't wanting to change anytime soon, smh

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The EPS is already kicking the can again...compared to the weeklies from Monday.
This was the weeklies run for what is now day 15 on last nights EPS...it was leading to that better pattern mid February there by already obviously moving the NAM state towards neutral and a developing EPO ridge...
EPSweeklies.thumb.png.e5e8511dea8ee1a4671ac76b1ff8149f.png
but as usual as we get a day closer look what is happening...the NAM state is still strongly positive now for the same time and the EPO ridge is being shunted south of the EPO domain by the strong Vortex.  This has happened again and again.  
Day16eps.thumb.png.06c3ee31d5716d424b7f7520d7d741d2.png
 
This happened last year too...the eps and weeklies were always out of sync

Of course the less snowy eps won out
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12z chill storm update - GFS is a cutter to the lakes and the CMC a strung out/southern slider with enough cold for all snow for our area. ICON appears to be headed somewhere in the middle. 
Yes that is the chill storm...the feb 1 bomb is still unnamed
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With all of these storms something is bound to work out for some of us.   Anecdotal but February 1972 was a wet stormy month in Baltimore with lots of rainfall but three of those storms produced heavy snow > 4 inches.  Feb. 16th or so had a wild storm that went from driving rain to snow I had 6 inches in my neighborhood in under 3 hours.  I believe Westminster did very well with 9-10 inches.... I'll take an active period over dry.

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gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_28.thumb.png.3a7751a804aaa6a29b8baa70c261223a.png

This is the current SLP ensemble spread for when the 12z GFS op is showing the cutter (chill storm) spinning in the midwest. There's no real agreement. I'd say things will lock on to a solution for this one by Friday/Saturday. I've been very surprised at how well the modeling has done with our last 2 systems. They've locked on to an early solution from about 4-5 days out and haven't really wavered. Here's to hoping this one ends up trending in our direction so at least someone in the forum can get some accumulating snow. 

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52 minutes ago, Ji said:
53 minutes ago, MD Snow said:
12z chill storm update - GFS is a cutter to the lakes and the CMC a strung out/southern slider with enough cold for all snow for our area. ICON appears to be headed somewhere in the middle. 

Yes that is the chill storm...the feb 1 bomb is still unnamed

Wondering if the first cuts...could it serve as a 50/50 for the second?...

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WB 12Z GEFS.  Most of this probability is not for the February 1 storm but for later in the first week of February.  Again, I use this for trends.  GEFS is still not honking about anything within 10 days so don't get false hopes.  Let's see if it holds for this period for a few days then I will start to get excited.  Low expectations keeps one from getting too bummed out later.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_ge_3-1076800.png

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