WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 53 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: CFS still on-board for a general cold pattern beyond the first few days of Feb. Driven by a +PNA initially, then by the big EPO ridge we keep seeing advertised on LR guidance- that ultimately fails to materialize. Maybe it will this time. Seems like last winter we were constantly teased by -AO/-NAO looks in the long range that never materialized. This year it’s -EPO that hasn’t materialized. Well, it did in November and that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Wonder if we do achieve some sort of change with momentum displacement to 40 north and above, as Hugo mentions. A cold or colder March this year certainly seems like a possibility. Cold enough for snow in the Northern Mid Atlantic is the question though. Latest EPS I saw a couple days ago keeps the EPO positive and the AO as well. , But maybe we can still achieve a change for the better in the NAM state later in Feb and in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This year it’s -EPO that hasn’t materialized. Well, it did in November and that was it. I bet for most areas the biggest negative temp departures from normal occurred during the deep - EPO of November. That was some impressive cold for so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 ICON at 180 with a decent track for the chill storm. Hints of a possible favorable transfer to the coast. Mediocre cold; but cold nonetheless nearby. GFS has shown a cutter for a number of days now but it's ensembles are all up in the air as to whether this will be a cutter or more of a coastal solution. Will be interesting to see if it begins to come around to something a little more interesting for snow prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The EPS is already kicking the can again...compared to the weeklies from Monday. This was the weeklies run for what is now day 15 on last nights EPS...it was leading to that better pattern mid February there by already obviously moving the NAM state towards neutral and a developing EPO ridge... but as usual as we get a day closer look what is happening...the NAM state is still strongly positive now for the same time and the EPO ridge is being shunted south of the EPO domain by the strong Vortex. This has happened again and again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Gfs has a big noreaster jan 31 with 850 temps below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The EPS is already kicking the can again...compared to the weeklies from Monday. This was the weeklies run for what is now day 15 on last nights EPS...it was leading to that better pattern mid February there by already obviously moving the NAM state towards neutral and a developing EPO ridge... but as usual as we get a day closer look what is happening...the NAM state is still strongly positive now for the same time and the EPO ridge is being shunted south of the EPO domain by the strong Vortex. This has happened again and again. Yeah I'm starting to think long range looks are getting pointless to look at, lol It's becoming increasingly clear that we are gonna have to pray for a bit of fortune in perfect timing during a very transient window...obviously the looks up top ain't wanting to change anytime soon, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs has a big noreaster jan 31 with 850 temps below zero The Bob Chill storm. If it plays out like this the Reaper will be busy. (I’ll be in Snowshoe that weekend.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The Bob Chill storm. If it plays out like this the Reaper will be busy. (I’ll be in Snowshoe that weekend.)That's not the bob chill storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Good grief are we going to be wet over the next few weeks or what? Still better to have a storm in the area than cold/warm and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 the lack of cold air with a storm like that in the heart of winter is almost laughable......i guess thats the Norm this winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The EPS is already kicking the can again...compared to the weeklies from Monday. This was the weeklies run for what is now day 15 on last nights EPS...it was leading to that better pattern mid February there by already obviously moving the NAM state towards neutral and a developing EPO ridge... but as usual as we get a day closer look what is happening...the NAM state is still strongly positive now for the same time and the EPO ridge is being shunted south of the EPO domain by the strong Vortex. This has happened again and again. This happened last year too...the eps and weeklies were always out of syncOf course the less snowy eps won out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The Bob Chill storm. If it plays out like this the Reaper will be busy. (I’ll be in Snowshoe that weekend.) That's not the bob chill storm Lol, maybe I’m confused. So naming rights to this are still open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 ICON and CMC went the right direction for the chill storm. Neither resemble a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: ICON and CMC went the right direction for the chill storm. Neither resemble a cutter. Dr. No up next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs has a big noreaster jan 31 with 850 temps below zero That would just hurt more...a bombing coastal deforming the hell out of us and its 38 degrees and heavy rain...probably mixed with slush bombs at times just to make us want to kill cute fluffy animals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 That would just hurt more...a bombing coastal deforming the hell out of us and its 38 degrees and heavy rain...probably mixed with slush bombs at times just to make us want to kill cute fluffy animalsVery 97-98 ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Encouraging to see that last couple GFS runs bringing some legit cold into the lower 48 around Feb 5-6. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12z chill storm update - GFS is a cutter to the lakes and the CMC a strung out/southern slider with enough cold for all snow for our area. ICON appears to be headed somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12z chill storm update - GFS is a cutter to the lakes and the CMC a strung out/southern slider with enough cold for all snow for our area. ICON appears to be headed somewhere in the middle. Yes that is the chill storm...the feb 1 bomb is still unnamed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Do they resemble a coastal with rain, by chance, though? ICON doesn't go out that far. CMC is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Cmc must be right with all of its updates this week lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Cmc must be right with all of its updates this week lol. Not that I wouldn't take it in a heartbeat, but its like 4" of snow in 36 hours. Snow TV++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 With all of these storms something is bound to work out for some of us. Anecdotal but February 1972 was a wet stormy month in Baltimore with lots of rainfall but three of those storms produced heavy snow > 4 inches. Feb. 16th or so had a wild storm that went from driving rain to snow I had 6 inches in my neighborhood in under 3 hours. I believe Westminster did very well with 9-10 inches.... I'll take an active period over dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not that I wouldn't take it in a heartbeat, but its like 4" of snow in 36 hours. Snow TV++ Gotta start somewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 This is the current SLP ensemble spread for when the 12z GFS op is showing the cutter (chill storm) spinning in the midwest. There's no real agreement. I'd say things will lock on to a solution for this one by Friday/Saturday. I've been very surprised at how well the modeling has done with our last 2 systems. They've locked on to an early solution from about 4-5 days out and haven't really wavered. Here's to hoping this one ends up trending in our direction so at least someone in the forum can get some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I know no one wants to hear it, but the first week of Feb. actually looks pretty active on GEFS. Some chances in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 52 minutes ago, Ji said: 53 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12z chill storm update - GFS is a cutter to the lakes and the CMC a strung out/southern slider with enough cold for all snow for our area. ICON appears to be headed somewhere in the middle. Yes that is the chill storm...the feb 1 bomb is still unnamed Wondering if the first cuts...could it serve as a 50/50 for the second?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 WB 12Z GEFS. Most of this probability is not for the February 1 storm but for later in the first week of February. Again, I use this for trends. GEFS is still not honking about anything within 10 days so don't get false hopes. Let's see if it holds for this period for a few days then I will start to get excited. Low expectations keeps one from getting too bummed out later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: The Bob Chill storm. If it plays out like this the Reaper will be busy. (I’ll be in Snowshoe that weekend.) That's not the bob chill storm Don't do it man. Don't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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