Weather Will Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Not ready to throw in the towel yet either for this weekend. 12Z WB EPS did throw us a bone. 10%-20% chance. Can't be any worse than last Saturday unless it floods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Not ready to throw in the towel yet either for this weekend. 12Z EPS did throw us a bone. 10%-20% chance. Can't be any worse than last Saturday unless it floods. Still holding out hope. I like your resiliency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Anything noteworthy on the EPS LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 There is hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Still holding out hope. I like your resiliency Yeah I can't bring myself to give up on this one either for whatever reason, lol I think I'm gonna riiiiiide till' I can't no mo.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya don't say...thoughts? Lol I always wonder about this kind of thing. It is really in their best interest to make this kind of investment in NWP infrastructure and code? What is to be gained here? Why would they make this type of capital investment when they can just buy similar or better service from the ECMWF and NWS? Wouldn't the investment $$ be better spent on sensor network density to feed into established, well-capitalized and run NWP ecosystems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, das said: I always wonder about this kind of thing. It is really in their best interest to make this kind of investment in NWP infrastructure and code? What is to be gained here? Why would they make this type of capital investment when they can just buy similar or better service from the ECMWF and NWS? Wouldn't the investment $$ be better spent on sensor network density to feed into established, well-capitalized and run NWP ecosystems? Couldn’t that be true of everyone? It probably would be more effective to pool global resources into one system and crate the best single combination. Yes there might need to be more than one model (or a beefed up ensemble system) but having tons of inferior models floating around just adds noise imo. But getting that kind of coordination and cooperation is difficult in anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Anything noteworthy on the EPS LR? I haven't been paying much attention lately(deliberately) but a quick glance and not much seems to have changed in the LR. Still trying to kick out the AK vortex and replace it with a ridge. Maybe an attempt to shift the +heights over eastern Canada up into the NAO domain, but that's 15 days out and it looks weak. Basically, the pattern still looks hideous for snow chances in the MA outside of the far western highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Glass half full interpretation. Roll this forward and there is a favorably located -EPO, +PNA, and a neutral NAO. Problem is the last time I looked a few days ago, LR guidance looked pretty much the same out west. The idea of moving towards a better pattern kinda seems stuck around day 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Glass half full interpretation. Roll this forward and there is a favorably located -EPO, +PNA, and a neutral NAO. Problem is the last time I looked a few days ago, LR guidance looked pretty much the same out west. The idea of moving towards a better pattern kinda seems stuck around day 15. the blues have been stuck in the same place now since Dec 1...its not a terrible look but we havent scored with "not a terrible look" and there is no ridging in iceland/scandavian thats going to retrogarde to a -NAO.. Were going to have to get lucky because it dosent want to even come close to snowing this winter. I think i am going to have to end up driving somewhere to see my first snow of the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: the blues have been stuck in the same place now since Dec 1...its not a terrible look but we havent scored with "not a terrible look" and there is no ridging in iceland/scandavian thats going to retrogarde to a -NAO.. Were going to have to get lucky because it dosent want to even come close to snowing this winter. I think i am going to have to end up driving somewhere to see my first snow of the year Ji, I already did, was skiing in Tahoe (Heavenly) over King Holiday. Plenty of snow there, we are relegated to driving or flying to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Close the blinds......all this over the top analysis that's been done for the last month has equaled squat. For the next 15 days there is very very little intrigue or anything to be excited about. Facts are facts no matter how much wishcasting over analysis is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 GFS is at least better. Dont throw in the towel yet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I wouldnt give up yet if your in the west. Gfs is close. Has my high on Friday in the upper 30's dropping down to the low 30's that night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said: Close the blinds......all this over the top analysis that's been done for the last month has equaled squat. For the next 15 days there is very very little intrigue or anything to be excited about. Facts are facts no matter how much wishcasting over analysis is done. Analysis doesn’t make it snow. Maybe some of us enjoy analyzing the pattern no matter the outcome. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: I haven't been paying much attention lately(deliberately) but a quick glance and not much seems to have changed in the LR. Still trying to kick out the AK vortex and replace it with a ridge. Maybe an attempt to shift the +heights over eastern Canada up into the NAO domain, but that's 15 days out and it looks weak. Basically, the pattern still looks hideous for snow chances in the MA outside of the far western highlands. As has been case for the last few winters, we need to wait for the atmosphere to start shuffling in March and then hope for 30 days of winter before we enter chilly mud season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Analysis doesn’t make it snow. Maybe some of us enjoy analyzing the pattern no matter the outcome. Fair enough, you're a great poster. I very much enjoy your analysis and ability to keep it real no matter how depressing things look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I wouldnt give up yet if your in the west. Gfs is close. Has my high on Friday in the upper 30's dropping down to the low 30's that night I thought the euro was close to a MD line event....especially the higher spots. Wouldn't take a huge shift to get an accumulation along the N counties....or could just go the other way and put a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Glass half full interpretation. Roll this forward and there is a favorably located -EPO, +PNA, and a neutral NAO. Problem is the last time I looked a few days ago, LR guidance looked pretty much the same out west. The idea of moving towards a better pattern kinda seems stuck around day 15. I feel like this has happened before... maybe recently... Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Is that the 18z Euro? Can you post and/or describe the snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Gfs 2-6" from West Balt co to Western Md along the extreme northern tier Duh, sorry just realized its only 5:30 so the 18z Euro isn’t out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: Duh, sorry just realized its only 5:30 so the 18z Euro isn’t out yet. Yeah I thought it was the 18z EURO too at first (precip map had the same graphics, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 38 days of Met winter remain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: Duh, sorry just realized its only 5:30 so the 18z Euro isn’t out yet. A seasoned veteran of your caliber making a mistake like this. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Gfs 2-6" from West Balt co to Western Md along the extreme northern tier GFS WB 18z for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 You know it's a marginal setup when Weatherbell's Kuchera has my yard at 6"+, Pivotal Weather's Kuchera says less than 5" and Tropical Tidbits' 10-1 says I see 1/2" with the rain-snow line cutting my property in half at H84. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 There was more MR/LR digital snow a week before Halloween than there is now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 There was more MR/LR digital snow a week before Halloween than there is now!Most bad winters we are 10 days away..this one we have no idea...34 days away? 19? 361 days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: There was more MR/LR digital snow a week before Halloween than there is now! Most bad winters we are 10 days away..this one we have no idea...34 days away? 19? I don’t think time is even going the right direction anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I’m gonna just say it ..things don’t look so great in the LR with a less than ideal look for wintry weather in the MA. Everyone is dancing around it but it needed to be presented as an idea that might have some merit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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