Chris78 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Mersky said: the 12z gfs does have snow for the area. You just have to wait 384 hours to see it. Thats the beginning of the period Ralph Wiggum is toughting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I am SHOCKED the CFS didn't work out, it's always so reliable. 2 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 This sums it up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 This thing started as a gulf coast low that then transferred north and slid east. It has now become a Midwest low trying to transfer east. We either get a much quicker and more south transfer or we go back to the original wackiness, or we are done. It’s that second piece of energy diving in that’s messing this up. When you go back to the better runs that piece got in there much faster and prior to that wasn’t there at all. That’s another thing that could possibly swing this back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This thing started as a gulf coast low that then transferred north and slid east. It has now become a Midwest low trying to transfer east. We either get a much quicker and more south transfer or we go back to the original wackiness, or we are done. It’s that second piece of energy diving in that’s messing this up. When you go back to the better runs that piece got in there much faster and prior to that wasn’t there at all. That’s another thing that could possibly swing this back the other way. What is messing this up in the broader sense is the longwave pattern. The upper low is stuck under blocking in canada yes... and that forces a south track of that feature (considering where it starts out) and that is why a ridge near Hudson Bay can sometimes work for us with a crappy background state... but in this case the wall to wall lower heights all across from AK to the NAO is blasting warm air across the continent. The problem isnt really the upper low. I guess it is if you were hoping to salvage any frozen in spite of the fact the antecendent airmass is a rotting POS. Then yea...the only way was to get a damn perfect H5 track and a bombing surface low to our east. But that is so rare. The real problem is the surface low is going to try to seek out the baroclinic zone and that is way way way north. So even with a pretty ok upper track the surface low is going to cut, on some runs it even ends up NW of the upper low for a time. That is why we see those wacky outcomes. If there was any cold at all this would be a big snowstorm because the surface low would stay to the southeast of the upper low along the boundary. We are left praying for some 1/100 perfect upper low to track under us and have an amplified enough system to create its own cold air...how often does that work. More for you than DC I guess...but its the larger picture that is the real problem imo not the micro level issues with the H5 track. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am SHOCKED the CFS didn't work out, it's always so reliable. It can't forecast the MJO , or the month ahead weather, and some people really have faith in it. There was a study bluewave posted in the Fall about the behavior of the MJO, avoiding the cold phases and spending more time, at a higher amp in the warmer phases. This has been going on for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Why no 0z eps from ttb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What is messing this up in the broader sense is the longwave pattern. The upper low is stuck under blocking in canada yes... and that forces a south track of that feature (considering where it starts out) and that is why a ridge near Hudson Bay can sometimes work for us with a crappy background state... but in this case the wall to wall lower heights all across from AK to the NAO is blasting warm air across the continent. The problem isnt really the upper low. I guess it is if you were hoping to salvage any frozen in spite of the fact the antecendent airmass is a rotting POS. Then yea...the only way was to get a damn perfect H5 track and a bombing surface low to our east. But that is so rare. The real problem is the surface low is going to try to seek out the baroclinic zone and that is way way way north. So even with a pretty ok upper track the surface low is going to cut, on some runs it even ends up NW of the upper low for a time. That is why we see those wacky outcomes. If there was any cold at all this would be a big snowstorm because the surface low would stay to the southeast of the upper low along the boundary. We are left praying for some 1/100 perfect upper low to track under us and have an amplified enough system to create its own cold air...how often does that work. More for you than DC I guess...but its the larger picture that is the real problem imo not the micro level issues with the H5 track. Tried to explain that in my other forum this morning. With marginal and retreating antecedent cold....were cooked. Only winners would be elevation and max precip areas that are close enough to having column cool during best precip. The rest of us its the occasional spoonful of mashed taters at best. Boy i wanna be wrong on this one, cause we are starting to hear the tic toc of the winter clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Im guessing by the lack of analyzing, the 12Z euro did not make any friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 i think most would agree that winter is over but it dosent mean we can still fish for a snowstorm. Some really bad winters with one really good snow even the worst winter of all time until this one--2001-2002 had a big snowstorm for Norfolk VA and southern states. Like a foot...i think we got a 3 inch snowfall later a few weeks later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Im guessing by the lack of analyzing, the 12Z euro did not make any friends it actually made some progress from 00z for western maryland i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What is messing this up in the broader sense is the longwave pattern. The upper low is stuck under blocking in canada yes... and that forces a south track of that feature (considering where it starts out) and that is why a ridge near Hudson Bay can sometimes work for us with a crappy background state... but in this case the wall to wall lower heights all across from AK to the NAO is blasting warm air across the continent. The problem isnt really the upper low. I guess it is if you were hoping to salvage any frozen in spite of the fact the antecendent airmass is a rotting POS. Then yea...the only way was to get a damn perfect H5 track and a bombing surface low to our east. But that is so rare. The real problem is the surface low is going to try to seek out the baroclinic zone and that is way way way north. So even with a pretty ok upper track the surface low is going to cut, on some runs it even ends up NW of the upper low for a time. That is why we see those wacky outcomes. If there was any cold at all this would be a big snowstorm because the surface low would stay to the southeast of the upper low along the boundary. We are left praying for some 1/100 perfect upper low to track under us and have an amplified enough system to create its own cold air...how often does that work. More for you than DC I guess...but its the larger picture that is the real problem imo not the micro level issues with the H5 track. Very informative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Tried to explain that in my other forum this morning. With marginal and retreating antecedent cold....were cooked. Only winners would be elevation and max precip areas that are close enough to having column cool during best precip. The rest of us its the occasional spoonful of mashed taters at best. Boy i wanna be wrong on this one, cause we are starting to hear the tic toc of the winter clock. Yep...and I would hate for these last two weeks of January to be our last shot. Because even in these two lweeks things look difficult! And ya talk about February not looking to start off too well right now? Mercy...we just gotta hope for either a miracle with this weekend or next, or that we can get a small window we manage to score in next month. (Or a March miracle, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: it actually made some progress from 00z for western maryland i think 6 minutes ago, Ji said: it actually made some progress from 00z for western maryland i think From what I see it took a big step back. Looks like rain from snowshoe up through wisp until the upslope event follows the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Mersky said: the 12z gfs does have snow for the area. You just have to wait 384 hours to see it. This period feb 6/7 begins a pattern where there may be N Atl ridging that stays for more than 2 days. Maybe we can even pop a block. Regardless warm west/cold east and active stj. Dont give up guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Thats the beginning of the period Ralph Wiggum is toughting Not concerned with the ops but the ens continue to promote ridging in the N atl near the NAO. But some are saying it isnt a real ridge and just higher transient heights that likely wont mean anything. But if you loop the last 3 weeks+ into that period you can see the center of a ridge signal progressing into the NAO. Any time the means show ridging in the area and are in agreement warrants at least one raised eyebrow especially given this winter. I'm optimistic. Why not? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: From what I see it took a big step back. Looks like rain from snowshoe up through wisp until the upslope event follows the system. But it’s close day 10 to a flood 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Man, that is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Not concerned with the ops but the ens continue to promote ridging in the N atl near the NAO. But some are saying it isnt a real ridge and just higher transient heights that likely wont mean anything. But if you loop the last 3 weeks+ into that period you can see the center of a ridge signal progressing into the NAO. Any time the means show ridging in the area and are in agreement warrants at least one raised eyebrow especially given this winter. I'm optimistic. Why not? The ridging I see is mostly south of the NAO domain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But it’s close day 10 to a flood Looks pretty much in agreement with GFS on that one...both give us quite a bit of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 41 minutes ago, Ji said: i think most would agree that winter is over but it dosent mean we can still fish for a snowstorm. Some really bad winters with one really good snow even the worst winter of all time until this one--2001-2002 had a big snowstorm for Norfolk VA and southern states. Like a foot...i think we got a 3 inch snowfall later a few weeks later I dont think a single person here would object to one Feb 1983 type hit before the season ends. Well, most people anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Looks pretty much in agreement with GFS on that one...both give us quite a bit of rain Maybe we can get the severe thread jumping with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The ridging I see is mostly south of the NAO domain. I thought just S of Greenland and the mouth of Baffin Sea was considered the NA and in fact part of the NAO region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Mersky said: still a top 5 favorite of mine. intense snow that friday afternoon and evening. I was only 10 but the thunder, lightning, and 5"/hr rates for a period is something not soon forgotten. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Mersky said: yea it was insane right after sunset that evening. Could barely see the street lights in the snow. Wish there was an archived radar loop for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I thought just S of Greenland and the mouth of Baffin Sea was considered the NA and in fact part of the NAO region? It might encroach the southern edge of the NAO domain some...but its not the kind of look that will influence the pattern the way we need. A better sign is the guidance ejecting the AK vortex...although todays GEFS seems to take a "step back" on that. I don't care about the blue over us if there is still a AK and Greenland Vortex combo...it will not be cold enough in all likelihood regardless of a day 15 look. This is a composite of warning level snowfalls at BWI with a somewhat similar Pac look to this year. Notice where we need the ridging in the NAO region to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 My storm died a quick death but what happened to the storm @bobchill got me excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It might encroach the southern edge of the NAO domain some...but its not the kind of look that will influence the pattern the way we need. A better sign is the guidance ejecting the AK vortex...although todays GEFS seems to take a "step back" on that. I don't care about the blue over us if there is still a AK and Greenland Vortex combo...it will not be cold enough in all likelihood regardless of a day 15 look. This is a composite of warning level snowfalls at BWI with a somewhat similar Pac look to this year. Notice where we need the ridging in the NAO region to be. were beyond blue baby--we are in the greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ji said: My storm died a quick death but what happened to the storm @bobchill got me excited about As of right now...it appears to have gotten cut, lol (could always turn around, of course...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: As of right now...it appears to have gotten cut, lol (could always turn around, of course...) @Bob Chilldid a classic hit and run. Didnt post for a week...came in-----got himself a storm name and then disappeared like a thief in the night 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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